Introduction
The People’s Republic of China Taiwan is an island territory since it is physically isolated from mainland China by the Taiwan Strait. It broke away from the Republic of China (then called mainland China) in 1949 and has been an independent nation. China views Taiwan as a separatist province and has promised several times to bring the island back under Chinese control. Political leaders in Taiwan, a self-governing island territory of China with its own democratically elected government and home to millions of people, have different views on the island’s status and relations with the Chinese mainland. The PRC and Taiwan are considered part of the larger Chinese mainland, although they have been at odds with one another for over a century. They set up a government and proclaimed Taipei the PRC capital soon after touching down in Taiwan. Trade agreements were created, and Taiwan stopped disputing the PRC’s status as China’s legitimate government, all of which were signs that ties between the two were improving after a lengthy period of stagnation. One of the various groups that have worked to promote Taiwan’s independence from China is the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), also known simply as the TSU. Meanwhile, China has expressed its desire to include Taiwan in its vision of “One China.” In about twenty days, Taiwan will play home to presidential elections. Military measures by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have risen, including radar calibration and the deployment of surface movement soldiers, to sway the people of Taiwan to vote in favor of the side that would be advantageous to the PRC. Until the results of the elections are known, hostilities are likely to persist before, during, and maybe even after the vote. A diplomatic solution, in which their differences are settled without resorting to political, economic, or military coercion; a limited intervention, in which threats of political, economic, or military action against the Taiwanese people are made; or a direct attack, in which military action is taken directly against the island of Taiwan; will all be decided by the polls in the next 20 days. Before the election, a lot of time has passed, and many things might happen. The United States has made it plain that it would not intervene on Taiwan’s behalf in a military battle with the People’s Republic of China, and both sides have engaged in inflammatory rhetoric.
Section 2
The most probable outcome is a low level of intervention between Taiwan and China. Taiwan is expected to rely significantly on shipping and commerce as a tiny island. Taiwan’s economy relies highly on trade, and the PRC knows it. As a result, the PRC plans to isolate Taiwan economically and culturally due to the two countries shared economic success.[1]. After passing the “Anti-Cessation Law,” the PRC will likely utilize its military might to coerce Taiwan and its people into accepting PRC values and norms. A boycott or sanctions on Taiwan would negatively affect the tiny country’s economy, increasing public unrest and protests.
In retrospect, the PRC has done everything that can be classified as “limited involvement” until day twenty. They have launched missiles and deployed submarines in preparation for an invasion. There is a good chance that the PRC government and media are spreading the word about all the happenings in the military. These are psychological variables designed to scare the people of Taiwan off of supporting independence from mainland China. President Obama’s warning to Shu Ching-Chiang not to escalate tensions without cause proves that this is an organized effort to achieve this aim. The high costs of confrontation are being felt all around Taiwan as a consequence of the lack of clarity surrounding the PRC’s plans for the election results. Some political figures in Taiwan argue that Taipei should try to avert a war by talking to China instead, while others point out that a war would be costly for both sides. Taiwanese public trust in U.S. and Japanese military backing has eroded, which China is likely to exploit due to the United States and NATO’s reluctance to put conventional troops in other nations. Consequently, that little intervention will probably be necessary here.
The PRC may be doing training exercises that coincide with the elections to disprove the evidence. This flurry of activity may be in preparation for a large-scale military drill, which would include the calibration and firing of missiles, the deployment of submarines, the loading of armaments into planes, and the alerting and standing down of soldiers. Both theories are plausible, but the fact that the PRC engaged in similar behavior before the 1996 elections in Taiwan is the most damning evidence against them.
Section 3
A frontal assault by the PRC on Taiwan is the most probable scenario. Since Speaker of the House, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increased the expectation of armed war between mainland China and Taiwan by conducting aggressive military drills and continuing to operate militarily in the air and sea space surrounding Taiwan. It seems conceivable that the United States would respond to a PRC assault on Taiwan with military force.[2]. Consequently, it is anticipated that Taiwan will proclaim independence from mainland China. In response, the PRC will implement the Anti-cessation legislation and use all available measures to prevent this. Given that the United States sent in two carrier groups to keep an eye on things during the 1996 elections and make sure things didn’t become any worse, that fact alone is enough to cast doubt on the possibility of a direct assault.
Once again, a frontal strike would attract the attention of other countries and potentially prompt intervention from another government, in this case, the United States. That so, the tension between the two nations has the potential to escalate quickly and become a far more severe problem. Even more importantly, the estimates show Shu with a substantial lead; thus, further mobilization on the part of the PRC would be necessary for the event of an assault on Taiwan. The fact that this option would attract greater attention from allies, leading to an unnecessary escalation, made it the second most probable. International governments and investors may be warned of an oncoming confrontation by China’s preparations to attack Taiwan, but the signals would not be evident. To do so would mean taking steps to deploy its military, ready its populace, and clear the diplomatic decks for a confrontation that Chinese authorities may fear may cost the Chinese. The PRC intends to intimidate and harass Taiwan into recognizing the PRC’s position. Thus all the military activity and ongoing preparations may give the impression that this is the most likely course of action.
It is more likely that the PRC would wait until the election results are announced before trying to overthrow the newly elected government leaders and replace them with someone more amenable to the PRC’s interests. When the newly elected government of Taiwan announced its independence, the People’s Republic of China began a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. The fact that the PRC is ready to launch an instant attack on Taiwan is one of the most important considerations. In addition to this, Plane bombers that were observed carrying air-to-surface missiles provide more evidence that a frontal assault is about to take place.
Considering all of the possible outcomes, an assault on Taiwan would be catastrophic. Leaders in Taiwan would have to walk a fine line to prevent diplomatic and economic isolation from the developed countries, which would have severe ramifications for the island and its people.
Section 4
A diplomatic resolution between the PRC and Taiwan is improbable since China has worked hard to prevent international recognition of the island. China considers democratic, self-governing Taiwan part of its territory and has threatened to invade it by force if necessary. China has worked hard to prevent international recognition of the island, but several countries now maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.[3]. As a result, if the PRC and Taiwan were to get into a war over these elections, the PRC’s allies might feel compelled to intervene, even though the United States has publicly stated it cannot provide military aid to Taiwan.
There is widespread opposition to TSU’s leading candidate, as many fear it would escalate violence between the two nations. If the PRC and Taiwan can work out their differences diplomatically, the alert level for the military will be lifted. Many have advised the TSU leadership in Taiwan to accept the status quo to keep the diplomatic option open and reduce the likelihood of misinterpretation between the two countries. It would hinge on the fact that Taiwan doesn’t want any violence during the election. The PRC has deployed several of its military forces and given instructions to assess all relevant plans to counter the diplomatic approach, which likely means they are evaluating their options for capturing Taiwan. Taiwan is aware that the PRC is always on the verge of launching another military attack to retake Taiwan.
Any attempt to challenge the absolute power of the Chinese Communist Party will be met with overwhelming force by the PRC’s military forces. Taiwan should choose the diplomatic route since it provides more evidence that the PRC would not want a country confronting them and attempting what they view as theirs. Taiwan would not have any military hardware if it weren’t for the assistance of the United States. Due to the massive imbalance between Taiwan and the PRC and its military, it is expected that Taiwan would strive to follow the diplomatic approach to prevent any avoidable war. Reasonably speaking, the TSU candidate’s rhetoric makes a diplomatic settlement rather unlikely.
Conclusion
Regarding Taiwan, the People’s Republic of China will only make a limited intervention. They will most likely try to suffocate the country to death by destroying its economy, resulting in civil unrest. The most likely outcome is a frontal attack, even though many nations would intervene due to the intense attention these elections receive. A disagreement that can be resolved diplomatically is the preferred option for all parties concerned. This might save thousands of lives and increase commerce between the two countries. The language of the TSU candidate makes it very unlikely that a diplomatic solution would be reached. The People’s Republic of China will likely remember his statements and great hopes for Taiwan. He is considered a threat to the PRC, which has led to blockades and potential attacks against Taiwan. This demonstrates to the people of Taiwan that independence comes at a steep cost.
Bibliography
Chen, Lung-chu. “Taiwan-China Relations.” The U.S.-Taiwan-China Relationship in International Law and Policy, 2016, 189-210. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190601126.003.0008.
Chen, Lung-chu. “U.S.-Taiwan Relations.” The U.S.-Taiwan-China Relationship in International Law and Policy, 2016, 127-162. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190601126.003.0006.
Roy, Denny. “The U.S.-China-Taiwan Relationship: New Circumstances, Persistent Challenges.” The Future of United States, China, and Taiwan Relations, 2011, 149-165. doi:10.1057/9780230118966_8.
[1] Lung-chu Chen, “Taiwan-China Relations,” The U.S.-Taiwan-China Relationship in International Law and Policy, 2016, xx, doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190601126.003.0008. Chen, “short title.”
[2] Lung-chu Chen, “U.S.-Taiwan Relations,” The U.S.-Taiwan-China Relationship in International Law and Policy, 2016, xx, doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190601126.003.0006. Chen, “short title.”
[3] Denny Roy, “The U.S.-China-Taiwan Relationship: New Circumstances, Persistent Challenges,” The Future of United States, China, and Taiwan Relations, 2011, xx, doi:10.1057/9780230118966_8.
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