Putin has long claimed that Ukraine is an illegal state, claiming that Ukrainians, Russians, and Belarusians are all one people who belong to the “All Russian nation.” According to Putin’s book On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, Ukraine has no right to call itself an independent nation. Creating an ethnically pure Ukrainian state is akin to using weapons of mass devastation against Russians. Sending Russian troops to the area under the guise of peacekeepers resulted in long-term tensions.
On the other hand, the war in Ukraine has several worldwide socioeconomic consequences. For example, it has resulted in the devastating loss of life and human misery and major physical infrastructure destruction in Ukraine. As a result, the war has forced over one million people to flee to neighboring countries, and Russia has been hit with unprecedented sanctions. Furthermore, the war is harming the economy in various ways, such as rising energy and other commodity costs, such as wheat. Supply chain interruptions and the recovery from the covid-19 epidemic lead to inflationary pressures.
Similarly, the price increase harms the world, particularly poor people who rely on gasoline and food for their daily needs. If the conflicts worsen, the economic impacts will be more adverse, and Russia’s sanctions will have a huge influence on the world economy and financial markets and other countries. Airports and seaports, for example, have already been closed, posing difficulties in obtaining funding, implying that Ukraine will face huge recovery and reconstruction expenditures. Ukraine has previously requested $1.4 billion in emergency funding from the IMF’s Rapid Financing mechanism.
The war between Russia and Ukraine is the most dangerous geopolitical confrontation, affecting several countries. Under the current structure, China, for example, will become more isolated, facing containment from the West and the United States. Once Putin is deposed, the US will no longer be able to deal with the two strategic rivals and will be left with the alternative of encircling China in strategic containment. As a result, Europe would be shut off from China, Japan would become the anti-China spearhead, and we will further subjugate South Korea. As a result, China will face Western systems and ideals (Lilei,2015). Furthermore, Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China, and the conflict has resulted in Taiwan becoming a key geopolitical asset for the US in the Indo-Pacific. According to Oxford Analytica 2022, Taiwan will be more deeply integrated into trade networks and supply chains than Ukraine, implying that the Ukraine-Taiwan relationship will darken as much as it will illuminate.
In terms of Pakistan, the war in Ukraine has geopolitical ramifications, as the US and its allies’ withdrawal from Afghanistan means Pakistan loses its standing as a frontline state. Because Pakistan is a frontline state, the US provides it with financial and diplomatic support. Pakistan has become the new geopolitical focal point between China and Russia due to the presence of Pakistan’s prime minister in Moscow. Pakistan will also benefit from China’s expanding economy, which has spent billions of dollars, stabilizing after the formation of the Afghan government. Even though Bangladesh is a small country, it is hoped to adopt a strong and unambiguous stance. Bangladesh’s separate geopolitical and economic compulsions resulting from the Ukraine conflict have pushed Dhaka between a rock and a hard place in managing its strategic relations with Russia and China (Vidmar,2015). Bangladesh has been ambiguous in its approach to the Ukraine crisis, as it is adamant about taking sides.
Because there are major linkages between Africa and Ukraine, the conflict in Ukraine is throwing a long shadow over Africa. Conflicting views among heads of state over how to handle the rising insurgency across the continent have put the concept of regionalism and pan-African solidarity to the test. Institutions that are structured to represent this solidarity, such as the Economic Community of the West African States, the African Union, and the Southern African Development Community, have been undermined by the invasion of Ukraine. Ethiopia, for example, has experienced severe levels of food insecurity as a result of the civil conflict. Eritrea was one of the countries that voted against a resolution calling on Russia to immediately end the war in Ukraine and allow more humanitarian aid into the country (Canuto,n.d.) For seventeen months, Ethiopia and Eritrea have launched a genocidal war on Tigray, regarded as the worst in the twenty-first century.
Nigeria should be more concerned about the issue by determining where it stands in terms of power dynamics and foresight and making the required preparations to deal with the war’s consequences. In terms of imports, Russia, for example, is Nigeria’s sixth-largest trading partner. Other products that Nigeria imports from Russia include main fertilizer ingredients. The worldwide sanctions against Russia have resulted in an increase in fuel and petroleum supply to Nigeria. The conflict and its consequences have shown Nigeria’s reliance on the outside world for even subsistence. Nigeria must invest in other growth strategies, such as economic diversification, to reflect the optimal value chain in its products because the country will face socioeconomic issues if the war escalates. In this regard, the government of Cameroon claims that Russia’s conflict with Ukraine adds to the wheat crisis that has resulted in rising bread prices. This would result in an increase in poverty and hunger, which will negatively impact global stability. The battle alters the global economic and geopolitical landscape, resulting in a shift in oil commerce, supply chain reconfiguration, payment network fragmentation, and the need for most countries to reassess their currency holdings. Increasing geopolitical tensions will jeopardize all countries’ commerce and technology sectors. The war will restrict tourism, raise energy and food prices, and make it more difficult to enter foreign finance markets for ordinary Africans. This will put economic strains on them and their public indebtedness. However, while the impacts many not fully materialize in the coming years, they are already signs that the war will have adverse impacts and most countries will fail to strike a balance between the containing inflation and supporting their economy from the adverse impacts of the pandemic.
References
Canuto, O. War in Ukraine and Risks of Stagflation.
Lilei, S. (2015). The Ukraine crisis: a multidimensional analysis in China. Eastern Journal of European Studies, 6(2), 159-175.
Oxford Analytica. (2022). Ukraine’s analogy has limited relevance for Taiwan. Emerald Expert Briefings, (oxan-ga).
Vidmar, J. (2015). The Annexation of Crimea and the Boundaries of the Will of the People. German Law Journal, 16(3), 365-383.
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