Introduction
Climate change is defined as either a long-term trend or a variance in the average weather characteristics at a particular location on Earth. Due to natural climatic change, the Earth experienced periodic cold periods (ice ages) characterized by glaciers covering sizable portions of the planet’s surface. Additionally, during those warmer periods, sea – levels were far higher than now. The Earth has enjoyed a stable, warmer climate for a lengthy period. According to research studies, the Earth is undergoing climate change due to a hotter climate caused by human activity. The activities of people include burning fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas) to power transportation and electricity and clearing forest areas to make room for towns and agricultural land (Richards et al., 2021). The world is currently dealing with the fact that climate change could harm humanity. Experts caution that human life hazards include global warming and climate change.
Although they are sometimes used indiscriminately, climate change and global warming require separate but related ideas. Climate change poses a hazard to ecosystems and may result in the demise of some species of animals and plants. Even worse are the negative repercussions on individuals, especially those with food security at risk in underdeveloped nations. According to expert predictions, the globe is approaching a critical threshold due to the increasing Earth’s surface warming. The scientists caution that rises in global temperatures could result in many natural calamities, such as droughts, wildfires, and decreased agricultural output. The alleged theft of aid monies by recipient nations poses another risk to the food security of emerging economies. Irrespective of the assertions, climate change is a fact that endangers lives and food security globally (Bates et al., 2021). Food insecurity is increasing fast throughout the Sub-Saharan region. In 2022, about 12% of the Sub-Saharan people were anticipated to be intensely food uncertain, suffering from high underfeeding, and incapable of meeting the minimum food-feeding needs. About 28 million people have become highly food insecure in 2 years because of consecutive shocks in rising foodstuffs costs. The conflict in Ukraine, supply chain distractions, and continual economic fallouts from the COVID-19 pandemic pressured food prices to skyrocket. To make matters worse, the challenges caused by COVID-19 are continually increasing unemployment rates and falling revenue and having a long-lasting hostile effect on food logistics and supply chains during the lockdown.
The activities that release glasshouse gases include methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, and carbon dioxide. The gases build up in the atmosphere of the Earth, allowing solar radiation to flow through while trapping heat emitted from the surface. The result is a glasshouse effect that resembles how a glasshouse operates. The glass roof lets in sunlight, but it also retains and keeps warm for the plants. Global warming, Earth’s high average temperature, results from the developed glasshouse effect. Climate change driven by global warming includes changes to seasonal rainfall, distribution, and extreme weather events, including storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves (Matawal & Maton, 2013).
The issue of greenhouse releases is becoming an international issue and has captivated the aggressive consideration of global world leaders and policymakers in the present times. Determined efforts towards substantially reducing carbo-dioxide releases internationally began in 2015 after an event during the Paris Accord agreement. The United Nations resolved during its climate change conference (COP 26) meeting that nations must set determined and aggressive targets to transition to green and cleaner energy (United Nations climate change conference, UK, 2021). The conference’s efforts were necessary and were anticipated to be appropriate to realize a shift to an environment free of greenhouse releases. Climate change impacts numerous aspects of living/income, including food security, poverty, environmental degradation, etc.
Adesete, Olanubi, & Dauda (2022) states that Weather changes and their inconsistency are substantial drivers of the global rise in food scarcity and hunger. Food security is essential to humanity’s survival. On the other hand, food insecurity is an image of a dysfunctional foodstuff network. According to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), food security refers to a situation where there is social, physical, and economic accessibility to safe, sufficient, and nutritious food for all individuals at every time to have a healthy and active life. That is to say, food security conveys goals two and three of the SDGs (sustainable development goals), which include good health, zero hunger, and mental well-being for the population. Accomplishing nutritional and food security has continued to be a significant health task in developing nations, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate changes affect food refuge on numerous fronts, including indirect and direct influence on food security, mainly in the livestock and agricultural sectors. Food uncertainty raises the risks of malnutrition among people and causes poor health, mainly among women and children. This overall negatively influences the harvest’s poor productivity and educational performance.
According to a board meeting on World food safety, food safety is developed on four features: food access, availability, stability, and utilization. Adesete, Olanubi, & Dauda (2022) describes food obtainability, or availability, as consistency and sufficiency in the amount of food supplied and produced in the nation. Food accessibility refers to how individuals have carnal access and can afford food. On the other hand, food utilization refers to the proper use of food kinds of stuff regarding basic knowledge and nutrition. Adesete, Olanubi, & Dauda (2022) describes food stability as constant access to the supply of suitable food every time, regardless of sudden shocks that might hit the country or economy. There is a self-motivated relationship between climate change and food security.
On the other hand, the hunt for assured food security has numerous implications for weather changes. Equally, weather changes influence every class of food security. Additionally, the scuffle for ownership and control of the limited natural and agricultural resources has caused food security contests in many parts of the globe.
Body
I) The impact on output quality and quantity
The number of individuals suffering from acute food insecurity increased from 135 million in 2019 to over 345 million by June 2022 in 82 nations. The conflict in Ukraine, supply chain distractions, and continual economic fallouts from the COVID-19 pandemic pressured food prices to skyrocket. International food insecurity was already increasing due in massive part to climate wonders. Global warming affects weather forecasts, causing heavy rainfall, heat waves, and drought. Increasing food commodity costs in 2021 is a primary factor driving about 30 million extra individuals in low-income countries toward food insecurity.
According to the World Bank Report, 2022 while the inflation degree urgently needs to be controlled and the weight of duty made more justifiable, perhaps no importance is more important than talking about food insecurity to guard the nutrition and calorie needs of Sub-Saharan Africa’s 1 billion individuals and defend their human development. Studies show that at least 1 in 5 Africans proceed to bed starving, and about 140 million individuals face severe food insecurity. The horn of Africa is hurting from insistent drought, and nations that depend on Ukraine and Russia for sunflower oil and wheat have increased food prices drastically and become too expensive for ordinary people.
According to Baptista et al. (2022), in urban areas of Sub- Saharan Africa, high food costs have led to families spending a large portion of their revenue on purchasing food items. On the other hand, lower-income households are found to assign most of their income towards purchasing food items more than higher-income homes. National food shortages are partly offset through food imports but are regularly costly and do not noticeably decrease food price rises. In addition to less buying power, urban deprived households might face superior competition for housing and jobs if the rural households travel to urban areas looking for replacement incomes and food.
Furthermore, Baptista et al. (2022) found that outward economic stabilities can depreciate. That is to say, elevated food import charges weigh on most trade balances resulting from numerous factors like amplified quantities of food importations to compensate for local food shortages. Also, increased import fees happen due to weather happenings in the importation source nation resulting in agricultural or food shortages or climate events impeding importation transit paths. Climate events can also hamper the manufacturing or production of food / agricultural distributes. Generally, a deteriorated trade balance will likely pressure exchange rates and gross worldwide reserves, where the balance of expenses needed in most Sub-Saharan countries is already significant.
Also, fiscal burdens rise as managements (governments) seek to assist populations in dealing with food insecurity also its consequences. However, spending to sermon food insecurity, expounded in social spending, capital spending, and the post-disaster break could crowd out additional development consumption regarding debt sustainability thoughts and inadequate fiscal revenues. The effect of food insecurity on tax incomes can be diverse. That is to say, high import charges regularly interpret into high revenue from customs tariffs and duties. However, to curb inflation, the administration might reduce the tariffs and duties, leading to more quantities of food imports.
Weather changes resulting in food scarcities feed physical and political conflicts over water access and arable land, hindering food distribution and production, ultimately evaluating economic growth. As an equivalent, the illustration of food insecurity as a significant driver of the Arab Spring can be well thought out. Even with no conflict, the loss of steady income, food sources, and assets can drive rural laborers to shift to cities searching for jobs and shelter, which increases pressure on Sub- Saharan countries already stressed to shelter high population densities.
II) The risks of food price inflation for households who spend so much of their income on food
Inflation tends to have a direct effect on food security. Currently, about 193 million international individuals are facing severe food uncertainty. Food insecurity refers to the inability to steady access to sufficient safe and nutritious foods due to the absence of resources like money or the unavailability of food. According to Choi, 2022 inflation is increasing globally, whereby in Sub-Saharan Africa, the primary item driving the pattern more than other items is food prices. That is to say, foodstuffs account for about 40% of the area’s feeding basket- a great measure of services and goods used to measure CPI (consumer index inflation). Food inflation has been increasing since 2019 on average in 20 countries in the region where regular food prices information is available.
Figure 1: Showing the rising trend in food inflation.
Source: Haver; country authorities and IMF staff calculations.
Note: CPI = Consumer price index that measures the price levels of the consumption basket of consumer services and goods.
On an international scale, the current increase in food price inflation is accredited to increasing oil prices, transportation costs, and fertilizer prices. Also, droughts and exportation limitations imposed by some leading foodstuffs exporters, plus stockpiling in a few countries, have affected food prices. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic inhibition measures interrupted production and importation of fertilizers and seeds, leading to labor scarcities during planting periods. Significantly, there is variety in putting Sub-Saharan Africa, like food inflation in Chad, at almost zero, but in Angola, it is around 30%. This recommends that domestic aspects like exchange rates and weather significantly contribute to foodstuff inflation in the Sub-Saharan region. CPI and food inflation can moderate if product prices ease, plus the pandemic international supply-chain interruptions resolve. Nevertheless, high- food inflation can persist whenever inflation prospects are de-anchored or other supply chain disruptions endure. Regionwide, the average inflation increased in 2021 before ultimately easing up in 2022 depending on the food price and the resolve of supply-demand disparities.
According to United Nations, 2023, among the 736 million individuals that lived on less than 1 dollar a day in 2015, 413 million people were in sub-Saharan Africa. This number has been increasing in the current years, which is higher than the number of underprivileged households worldwide. Therefore, high food inflation is likely to worsen the situation for Sub-Saharan countries facing food shortages and insecurity, disproportionately affecting low-income families. The number of malnourished individuals in sub-Saharan is forecasted to increase by 20% in 2022, about 264 million people. Low-income breadwinners are the hit toughest by food inflation because they spend much of their salaries on foodstuffs. Whenever prices increase, foodstuffs become inaccessible and unaffordable to these individuals who are already stressed, causing more individuals into shortage.
Additionally, with food price rise comes more trials like food fraud. Often, food swindle has some security implications and presents itself in numerous ways, like passing off sub-standard or inferior products as superior products and eliminating constituents that should be in foodstuffs or errors to include them. Lastly, food fraud occurs through deliberate failure to notify the consumers that other constituents are added, like food color or preservatives.
III) What impact international or national efforts to address food security and climate change will have
Regional trade Integration efforts; In climate change, better or more extensive regional trade integration will enhance food affordability and availability. Baptista et al. (2022) state that a combination of transport infrastructure and resilient storage, like the quality of train lines, roads & ports, and better coverage, can simplify sales of a country’s plentiful harvests that are likely to go to waste or surplus to a neighboring nation facing shortfalls. As a result, food prices in both nations are likely to remain constant, incentivizing extended agricultural ventures. Through the same strategy, increased regional trading can open better and new markets for agri-businesses and farmers and subscribe to evolving food production systems and quality value chains throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. The resultant knowledge transfers, adaptation such as optimizing drought-resistant plants, the most suitable equipment for a particular landscape and training on how to use it, & energy-efficient farming practices plus competition can boost food production.
Figure 2: Illustrates the welfare advantages of reduced import tariffs and transport costs (each aspect considered separately) where high transportation tariffs or costs prohibit homes from purchasing imported food and hasten food insecurity.
Baptista et al. (2022), although the two policies logically supplement each other, an assessment across policies showed that lower transport expenses support a somewhat quicker rebound from climate surprises. Presently, only 15% of food importations are intra-regional, where food-associated export bans and restrictions rose in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. For instance, Zambia’s prohibition on maize exportation represented 8% of maize importation by other Sub-Saharan nations; plus Cameroon’s cereal exportation prohibition to Nigeria signified 15% of Nigeria’s rice imports share. However, the prohibition has since been raised. Both net food exporters and importers stand to profit from all of the possible gains registered here, particularly when viewed from the viewpoint of individual agricultural foodstuffs. The (AFCFTA) Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement, which came into play in 2019 (May), is a positive step advancing with potential market sizes of $3.5 trillion in gross domestic product and 1.3 billion individuals. The World Trade Organization defines this arrangement as assisting African nations in developing trade corridors for indispensable goods, reducing duties on vital goods, establishing regional worth chains, establishing local medicinal production services, reconfiguring supply chains, and increasing access to medicine.
On the international scene, according to Sam et al. (2019), crop losses in India decrease food availability and reduce farm incomes worsening food insecurity in rural areas. Reduced household income from crop failures is devastating for marginal and small farmers. Agriculturalists take on a very high amount of debt to cultivate, debts they cannot repay when their crops fail to grow. Medium and small-scale farmers throughout India mutually owe about $ 14.7 billion. This degree of indebtedness contributes to farmer self-destruction en masse. Raj et al. (2022) found that farmer suicidal rates are positively connected with agriculturalists with landholdings of more than 1 hectare, planting capital-intensive crops like cotton and coffee that are a focus to price fluctuations. These affect the stability of food security in the country. In Odhisa, it was found that upper-class agriculturalists with more extensive landholdings can adjust to the hostile weather circumstances and losses by capitalizing on crop coverage using short-period diversities and ensuring credit. However, low-class farmers with little landholdings can not access these resources and, as an alternative, either alter their occupations, migrate out of farming, or sell their cultivating land. With some safety networks and restricted credit availability, marginal and small farmers are tremendously vulnerable- circumstances likely exacerbated by climate change.
Furthermore, the lack of physical infrastructure also hinders farming outputs. Low-quality substructure in a global South has made it challenging to get perishable farming produce to markets on time. Vegetables and fruits are inclined to decay if they are not processed and stored adequately. Rural areas of India are known to lack adequate cold processing and storage facilities, requiring high-quality crops to reach target markets as speedily as possible to lower the harvest/yield losses. Provisioning foodstuffs structure in rural India is a complex feature considering that most rural India has unstable electricity supplies. For example, about 74 million homes, or 579 million people in rural areas, do not have electricity. Outages and shortfalls in electricity supply pose an issue in areas with electricity. These situations have led to food security being questioned because there is no way to store and keep food for longer. Therefore, the lack of undeveloped service facilities hinders upstream foodstuff infrastructure expansion and homestead modernization, hence leading to lost rural areas purchasing power.
Conclusion
In conclusion, food prices and climate changes will significantly negatively influence food security. In contrast, food supply and income might substantially impact food security in the Sub-Saharan region. Climate changes have the most significant adverse effect, while on the other hand, the food supply has the most positive impact. The impact climate change will have on food security in sub-Saharan Africa in the next decade indicates that climate change, if not controlled, will have a negative impact on crop growth and yields. Climate change will most likely lead to increased food prices that could lower affordability or accessibility, increase childhood malnutrition, and decrease calorie availability in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this shows the significance of controlling weather changes and snowballing food productivity to enhance or secure food security in Sub-Saharan Africa.
References
Adesete, A. A., Olanubi, O. E., & Dauda, R. O. (2022). Climate change and food security in selected Sub-Saharan African Countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-19. doi: 10.1007/s10668-022-02681-0
Baptista, D. M. S., Farid, M. M., Fayad, D., Kemoe, L., Lanci, L. S., Mitra, M. P., … & Unsal, M. F. D. (2022). Climate change and chronic food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa. International Monetary Fund. CCCFISSAEA (1).pdf
Choi, S.M. (2021). Food Inflation In Sub-Saharan Africa. IMF BLOG. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/06/food-inflation-in-sub-saharan-africa
Raj, S., Roodbar, S., Brinkley, C., & Wolfe, D. W. (2022). Food Security and Climate Change: Differences in Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Rural Communities in the Global South and North. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 5. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.691191
United Nations Climate Change Conference, UK. (2021). https://ukcop26.org/the-conference/cop26-outcomes/
The World Bank. (2022). Food Security Update | World Bank response to rising food Insecurity. The World Bank. URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update
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