The topic of civilizational collapse has been discussed and argued for centuries. This idea has received extensive scholarly study and generated much rumor and anxiety. The process of a society or a group of people experiencing a major loss in its population, economic security, and cultural identity is known as a civilization collapse. It is a process that may be triggered by anything from political upheaval to environmental catastrophes. Several academics have examined the idea of civilizational collapse, and numerous ideas exist about why it occurs. Some people think natural catastrophes like earthquakes, floods, and droughts can cause civilizations to collapse. Others think that societal collapse can result from political upheaval like civil wars. Economic instability, such as scarcity or restricted access to resources, might cause civilization to collapse. In his book, Ronald Wright makes the case that various variables, including environmental, political, and economic instability, lead to civilizational collapse. He holds that civilizations frequently recognize the issues they are dealing with as they are on the verge of collapsing, but they cannot solve them to stop the collapse (Wright, 2011). Wright contends that proactively addressing the root causes of the collapse, such as environmental degradation, political unrest, and economic instability, is the only way to stop the civilizational collapse. The paper explores the idea of a civilization collapsing and the potential societal responses to this collapse. Specifically, the runaway train model proposed by Tainter. Our civilization is on the brink of collapse, and the runaway train model is the most applicable to explain why this is the case.
From the perspective of Ronald Wright, a true collapse results in a society’s extinction or near-extinction, during which very large numbers of people die or scatter. Ronald Wright provided this definition of a collapse. If there is a recovery, it takes generations because it requires the regeneration of natural capital, which happens over time as the trees, water, and soil slowly restore (Wright, 2011, p. 84). This term makes it evident that our society is dangerously close to disintegrating into chaos. This is demonstrated by the fact that our world is currently dealing with a multitude of environmental catastrophes, including climate change, deforestation, and the extinction of species, all of which pose a risk to the continued existence of our civilization.
In 1988, the historian and anthropology Joseph Tainter was the one who initially put out the idea of the Runaway Train Model. According to Tainter, the efforts that civilization makes over the course of its history to solve issues and satisfy the needs of its people cause it to become progressively more complicated(Wright, 2011). On the other hand, this level of complexity may eventually become unmanageable, which would destroy civilization. According to the theory, the growing complexity of civilization results in diminishing returns. This indicates that the advantages of the complexity are exceeded by the expenses required to keep it operating. Because of this, civilization may eventually end because it will no longer be able to maintain itself.
To explain why our civilization is on the verge of collapse, Tainter’s model of a runaway train is the most suitable model. According to this paradigm, when challenges arise in a complex society, that society cannot change course, go backward, or stand still; as a result, the civilization is ultimately doomed to fail (Wright, 2011). This is relevant to society today as our civilization cannot change course or remain unmoving in the face of the various environmental catastrophes it is currently confronting. Instead, it is continuing to march forward, despite the fact that this will unavoidably lead to some catastrophe in the future. For instance, people disregard the danger that they pose to the environment, and rather than finding a solution to the problem, they keep increasing our emissions of greenhouse gases. This, in turn, causes an increase in the average temperature of the planet as well as an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. This illustrates how our civilization must stay on course and remain unmoved in the face of an environmental crisis. Instead, it is forging ahead, despite the fact that this will inevitably result in a catastrophe, even though it cannot change course or remain unmoved in the face of an environmental crisis.
The theory of the runaway train is supported further by the fact that the level of complexity that our society has reached is steadily rising. This is demonstrated by the fact that our culture is becoming more reliant on technological advancements and that our economy is becoming more integrated into the global marketplace (Wright, 2011). Because of this complexity, our society cannot change course or remain unmoving in response to the environmental crises it is currently experiencing; as a result, it is finding it increasingly difficult to respond to these crises. Instead, it is continuing to march forward, despite the fact that this will unavoidably lead to some catastrophe in the future. The current state of the world’s climate catastrophe is a good illustration of this idea of a runaway train that exists in our world today. In spite of the fact that the scientific community has been cautioning us for decades about the dangers of climate change, our civilization has yet to take real action to address the issue. Instead, individuals continue to grow their dependency on fossil fuels and other energy types, contributing to the problem (Kat et al., 2022). This is one of the main reasons why global warming is occurring.
Furthermore, there is a growing inequality in our society. The growing wealth disparity and the rising influence of the wealthy demonstrate this. Because the powerful are more inclined to disregard the environmental scientists’ warnings and prioritize their own interests, this disparity is making it harder for our civilization to respond to the environmental catastrophes it is currently experiencing. This reinforces the idea of a runaway train since it makes it harder for our civilization to change course or stay put in the face of the many environmental catastrophes it is currently experiencing (Wright, 2011). As stated by the U.S. According to the Census Bureau, the wealth of the United States is now owned by the top 1% of earnings. This is a striking improvement compared to the 1970s when the top 1% only possessed roughly 10% of the nation’s wealth (Scheidel et al., 2020). The wealthy can increasingly influence governmental decisions due to this growing disparity, whereas the bulk of the population cannot. Most of the population has been left behind due to policies that benefit the few, such as tax cuts for the wealthy and the deregulation of industries. Inequality has also been rising in China. The World Bank estimates that the top 10% of earnings currently owns more than 70% of China’s wealth. In sharp contrast, in the 1980s, around 40% of the nation’s wealth was held by the top 10% of earners. The wealthy can increasingly influence governmental decisions due to this growing disparity, whereas the bulk of the population cannot. Most of the population has been left behind due to policies that benefit the few, such as tax cuts for the wealthy and the deregulation of industries. Inequality has also been rising in India. The World Bank estimates that the top 10% of earnings currently owns more than 60% of India’s wealth. In sharp contrast, in the 1980s, just around 30% of the nation’s wealth was held by the top 10% of earners (Scheidel et al., 2020). The wealthy can increasingly influence governmental decisions due to this growing disparity, whereas the bulk of the population cannot. Most of the population has been left behind due to policies that benefit the few, such as tax cuts for the wealthy and the deregulation of industries.
According to its numerous critics, the Runaway Train Model ignores the complexity of the causes that contribute to the deterioration of civilizations and is therefore oversimplified. Others contend that the model ignores the possibility of outside forces that could hasten the demise of civilizations and fails to take human action into account (Kat et al., 2022). They also contend that the Runaway Train Model needs to consider civilizations’ ability to bounce back from adversity. They make the point that civilizations have frequently emerged from periods of decline due to the deeds of specific people or social groups. For instance, Augustus Caesar’s initiatives allowed the Roman Empire to recover from its decline as he was able to bring back stability and order. According to its detractors, the Runaway Train Model ignores civilizations’ resilience and adaptability. The Chinese culture, which was able to endure and even flourish during the Mongol invasions, is an example of how civilizations may frequently find methods to flourish in the face of hardship. According to critics, the model ignores the possibility of civilizations undergoing change or being supplanted by new ones (Kat et al., 2022). They emphasize that new civilizations can arise to take their place; therefore, the demise of one civilization does not always signal the end of civilization as a whole.
To explain why our civilization is on the verge of collapse, Tainter’s model of a runaway train is the most suitable model. According to this paradigm, when challenges arise in a complex society, that society cannot change course, go backward, or stand still; as a result, the civilization is ultimately doomed to fail. This is relevant to the scenario we find ourselves in because our civilian is notable for changing course or remaining unmoving in the face of the various environmental catalysts it is currently confronting. Instead, it is continuing to march forward, despite the fact that this will unavoidably lead to the tort of catastrophe. This is supported by the fact that our civilization is growing progressively more compound and by the reality that it is becoming progressively more unequal. Because of this, it is essential to take action right now to address the fundamental reasons for the collapse, including environmental deterioration, political turmoil, and economic instability. If actions are not taken right now, our society will continue to advance, and the results will be disastrous.
References
Kato, M., Saito, N., Matsushita, R., Ueno, M., Izawa, S., Maruyama, Y., & Tesar, M. (2022). Philosophy of education in a new key: Voices from Japan. Educational Philosophy and Theory, 54(8), 1113–1129. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00131857.2020.1802819
Scheidel, A., Del Bene, D., Liu, J., Navas, G., Mingorría, S., Demaria, F., & Martínez-Alier, J. (2020). Environmental conflicts and defenders: A global overview. Global Environmental Change, 63, 102104. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020301424
Wright, R. (2011). A short history of progress. House of Anansi.
write