The problem of lack of satisfaction and trying to gain more power and security for nations has prevailed among many nations around the world. Many nations are challenging others to the point of repeated Civil wars and constant threats only to prove that they are better than other nations or gain power over them. An example of this is the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war and the repeated wars between nations in the middle east, among others. The current international and political discourse has evolved alongside security threats around the world, and so has the national security of each nation. Protection of people, property, and the borders of the United States has been one of the most crucial agendas in the National Security strategy of America led by the President. Over the years, America has gone far and beyond to protect its territories from terror and possible attacks by the enemy. Since the several attacks on Americans, especially the most impactful ones like the 9/11 events, America has been very conscious about what goes on in its soil, waters, and air. This has led to incredible results in the protection of the American people and land from any threat to the nation. Toppling and killing of the most prominent terrorists and crippling the well-known terrorist groups marks the extent America as a nation can go to protect its people, territorial integrity, and the sovereignty of the land as well as their cultural and political values from threats within and outside the United States. Besides keeping its people and territories safe, the United States as a nation has sought to maintain its position of power in the international system regime. However, besides the United States ‘quietness’ and seeking to do what is best for the Americans, several countries that are unsatisfied with their positions have sought to challenge America’s position with an aim to gain power and security by becoming the leader of the world. Therefore, the United States needs to keep watch and react less so that it may win the war against aggression and minor threats by the unsatisfied nations trying to challenge and attain the power posses by the USA.
Case study – China Launching ‘Spying Balloons’ on the U.S. Airspace.
China launching a “spying balloon” on America’s airspace became a threat to the national security of the United States as it poses a threat to the nation’s territorial integrity and America’s sovereignty, as well as the political values of the nation. As a result, many people in America and around the world gained some tension because such actions can lead to extreme retaliation from the nation trying to defend its people and its sovereignty and territory to the extent of a Civil war between America and China becoming the two nations’ problem as well as the world since they are among the Superpowers of the World. This deems it necessary for us as researchers and future-, policymakers to try and understand China’s actions and the implication of such actions to ensure that Incase of similar actions in the future, we may know what to do. China’s case study will guide us to understand and criticize two possible explanations of China’s action in accordance with the theories of international politics and national security hence being able to analyze the theories’ perspectives and elaborate on the weaknesses of the theories. This process will enable us to determine whether it is possible to draw informed predictions about the future actions of the nations and their political developments.
National security in the United States remains the most critical and sensitive matter in the nation. Based on the history America has had with threats to its national security and terrorism, the eagerness to protect its people, boundaries, and sovereignty has always kicked in like a primal instinct to the nation. From any political spectrum, it is important to understand why knowing all this, China would send a ‘spying balloon’ to the U.S. airspace. This paper will discuss two possible answers for this action as a product of neoclassical realism, particularly as it relates to the case study of China sending spying balloons to American territory. The first explanation is that China’s President; Xi is trying to send a coded message to America. Most Probably, President Xi is trying to personalize China and use it to show strength to the U.S., which is understood as a way of showing the United States that China is aware of what the U.S. has been doing in China’s airspace. The alternative explanation is that neorealism escapades China to daring the United States to react in a negative way that could lead to a fight over power between the two nations.
Internal Signaling
The scope of this paper is to underline two factors that could have influenced China’s action of sending spying balloons into U.S. airspace. One of which is that President Xi was using internal signaling tactics to show the United States that he was in control. Internal signaling is a very common technique among rival nations, especially when they possess crucial information concerning each other (Connelly, Certo, Ireland, and Reulzel, 2010). Internal signaling is vital especially when two rival nations are trying to share some information to which they have access. Typically, the sender chooses how to communicate the message to the other party while the other party decides how to interpret the message. When it comes to matters of national security, any information that poses a threat or can be used to the advantage of any nation is very useful. Therefore, to ensure all threats are mitigated and every strength of a nation is explored, it is necessary to take any information seriously, even when it comes from the enemy because it can be useful in improving national security strategies and improving the core strength of that nation.
Any political regime that is serious about protecting its people and territory makes sure that none of its sensitive information reaches the hands of its enemies or any unauthorized person, for that matter. Currently, the international environment has been faced with a flux of numerous security threats from all around. Great powers are challenging the United States for power and control over the world. With this, there is the rise of debate on how America should react to this threat, whether it should accept competition or fight for its power over other nations. Questions on the arising role of new technology and its role in the security of nations, the present and future that are expected from the same. China sending ‘spying balloons’ into the U.S. airspace, therefore, gave rise to a lot of tension in both nations and around the world. People were increasingly giving their opinions and worried about the matter. In the first week of February 2023, a balloon allegedly belonging to China was spotted on U.S. airspaces (Feng & Schapitl, 2023). In the past, both The U.S. and China have traded allegations of aerial surveillance, leading to distrust between the two nations. The appearance of the Balloon on United States soil prompted United States militants through the U.S. fighter plane to shoot down any “unidentified object” in the sky together with the Balloon. Although this is not surprising, the news about the Balloon was alarming. The intensity into which China has been aiming at the United States over the past five years has increased dramatically, becoming highly alarming to the people of both nations and the rest of the world. This Balloon was meant to provoke the United States’ reaction and show that President Xi is aware that the United States has been surveilling the China airspaces.
The fact that no authority above the state governs nations’ actions beyond what the nation sets as its policies and procedures means that international systems are lawless ( Morgenthau, 1973, p. 10). Therefore, as long as the impact is not costly for the nation, any nation can do whatever it needs to attain power. This becomes a loophole for superpower nations and other unsatisfied nations to constantly seek to attain more power and security at the cost of others. This constant unsatisfactory and competition influence many sovereign states to look for loopholes and strategies they can use to attain relative power over others and be able to own as much military force and economic strength to help guard this position. Lack of realism and control in the international system competition has led to constant Civil wars and endless conflicts with each other. The world’s perception of each nation, especially the three superpowers, the USA, China, and Russia, is very important to the nations themselves. Therefore, individual nations ought to carry out their actions in a way that pleases the world. Therefore, China as a nation and Xi as its President highly care about how the people see the nation. Therefore, to be able to keep up with the competition for power, China has made sure that as it develops its economic status, its military status and goals are promoted. This is to ensure that China is able to hold up to its current position while also aggressively challenging the United States for its power. China has been developing the best military techniques and going far and beyond to promote its economic status by investing all over the world. Xi has managed to promote the nation’s economic and military goals and show the world what China is capable of while also ensuring that China is safe. China’s investment into its national security and military might have paid off, unveiling that the USA has been secretly spying on China from time to time. Therefore, by sending the balloon into the USA airspace, President Xi is trying to pass on some information about his capabilities. In addition to this balloon, in response to the balloon issue, China released a statement that the U.S. is overreacting and that the U.S. has been surveilling China since 2022. This indicates that Xi is using this balloon and afterward sending a message to the USA, signaling him about the information he has and that China is aware of what has been going on and it is ready to show the world what it is capable of.
Over the years since the reign of President Xi, China has been developing technology to advance its military power and its economic status as a country to be able to challenge the U.S. in its quest for power gains. In a recent analysis by Reuters, it is indicated that China has recently shown interest in aircraft technology, to be specific surveillance balloon technology. In one of the Chinese militants’ journals, it is indicated that recently, the Chinese military has been studying and developing aircraft technology used in surveillance, among other specific military missions which are related to the technology. Reuters indicate that one of the articles published by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) institute is specifically interested in surveillance balloons to explore enemy territory and defense. According to the researcher, (The Balloon can) induce and mobilize the enemy’s air defense system, providing the conditions for the implementation of electronic reconnaissance, assessment of air defense systems’ early warning detection and operational response capabilities” (Baptista & Torode, 2023). This paper specifically explores the U.S.’s usage of balloon technology to spy on other nations. All these may not have been a coincidence having to research and engage in balloon technology and also having a ‘spying balloon’ in the U.S. airspace, which China claimed to be a weather balloon. President Xi claims that the Balloon was not intentionally sent to the U.S. China states that it “regretted the unintended entry of the airship into U.S. airspace due to force majeure.” (Feng & Schapitl, 2023; Wong & Wang, 2023). Because it is costly to engage in a war or extreme conflict with a nation like the U.S. (not that China cannot do it), Xi saw that the best strategy is to send a warning to the USA by signaling a message to only those involved would understand. The United States Department indicated that the Balloon was not built as a normal weather airship would normally look, and its huge solar panel and intelligence surveillance were highly suspicious. Although things were not cleared up on what it was, President Xi was quite sure his message had been understood. Xi knew that the U.S. could not start a war over a balloon; therefore, China not only got to pass its message, but Xi also used it as a way to show strength and that he could do it too. Additionally, because Xi cared about how people perceived China, he ought to deny that it was a surveillance balloon to avoid direct provocations. On the other hand, having received the signal loud and clear, the United States shot down the balloon and any other ‘unidentified’ object in the U.S. airspace. While this was happening, China claimed that the U.S. had been spying on them over the years. The U.S. has been flying the same balloons in China’s airspace in more than ten instances since 2022 (Feng & Schapitl, 2023). The United States denied the allegations.
Salami tactics
Salami tactics is a strategy the Chinese government is prone to, which involves using repetitive small provocations- fait accomplis which would not constitute major retaliations or constitute a casus belli by itself but cumulatively lead to huge results or actions in favor of the Chinese government, which would be costly in terms of money and legality to perform all at once. This tactic is used by the aggressor nation to threaten, testing the defensive nation through aggressive actions and back off when significant resistance is attained. China’s position in international policy has mostly been built by this tactic (Rovere, 2016). The Salami tactic uses the divide-and-conquer tactic to split the enemy and finally be able to conquer them. Unsatisfied and opportunist nations use the Salami tactic while other nations are under siege or during a major war in that while the other nation is focused on war, they engage and expand their influence towards the target nation while ensuring the retaliation is low-impact.
Salami tactics are initiated under the following conditions: when it is costly to retaliate against the target nation, when a reversal is unlikely, when in fear of future cutoffs, when fait accomplis are easy, and when there is an anticipation of more benefits and gains (Maas, 2021). The relationship between China and USA has been deteriorating for years since China took up the challenge to attain more power and finally become the world’s leading nation. Before China sent the spying balloon into U.S. airspace, there was an arrangement for diplomacy and ease the tension and conflict between these two nations. This is seen through the unannounced trip that the U.S. had planned before the balloon was noted and found to be China’s. China sending the surveillance balloon to U.S. territory altered their status quo, moving the two nations further and further away from becoming allies. Being a small issue that could not affect U.S. national security in any way that could harm the state, it was clear that the U.S. could not retaliate using much force, like influencing a war between the two nations. However, in response to China’s action, the U.S. would have to retaliate in one way or another, which can be seen when U.S. militants shot the balloon down, shot any unidentified objects, reducing the possibility of diplomacy détente and led to the closure of all Chinese managed aerospace companies claiming that they are used as spies to survey the U.S. To make matters worse, after the balloon was realized and confirmed it belonged to China, China reacted by telling the world that the balloon was used for weather and the U.S. was overreacting. It also added that for the past decade, the U.S. had been sending surveillance balloons to spy on China (Feng & Schapitl, 2023). The Chinese Salami tactic is in play due to repetitive predation.
For salami tactics to be effected, the following conditions must be met; there must be a strategic interest between the aggressor and the defensive nation, the aggressor should calculate provocations below the defender’s threshold, and lastly, military options need to be effective without serious escalations. On this account, China’s launching spying balloon on U.S. territory passes. First, China and the United States have a common strategic interest and that is power and national security. Unites states seek to maintain its position in power, but China seeks to increase its position taking the one occupied by the U.S. There is a slicing whereby China tries to secure massive costs- power at a minimal cost. Sending the balloon may seem like something that can be easily reversed or mitigated, but China’s long-term plan was affected once the U.S. responded to the action. For instance, in response to the Balloon U.S. shut down several aerospace companies belonging to Civilians, claiming that they enabled the China government and these companies were supporting Beijing’s military in surveilling the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. canceled the trip for the representative sent to China for a diplomatic meeting (Feng & Schapitl, 2023). China’s actions made sure that the U.S. came out a villain because, for a country that supports democracy, chasing innocent civilians when they have not yet been proven guilty paints a bad picture of the nation. Such actions divide a nation bit by bits letting the aggressor come out at the top when the time is right. Secondly, China calibrated its actions carefully, becoming below the U.S. threshold. China knew the right action, the right time to respond, and the right time to showcase its claim. All this balloon provocation and the aftermath were below the U.S. threshold of national security. President Xi understood that the U.S. would not wage Civil war over a spying balloon, and therefore China calibrated its actions and results afterward. Lastly, America’s military options toward China’s activities were limited. Although China’s action was perceived as a threat to America’s national security, retaliating using major force would not be acceptable to the entire world. It could only take a second for the U.S. to wage war against China in the name of being a threat to the nation’s security, but that would be barred by the international systems that support a nation’s power since China claimed that the balloon was a weather balloon and not a surveillance balloon, therefore, removing themselves from the fault of having sent a spying balloon on U.S. territory. Moreover, China needs a wider range of conflict to be able to conquer and manipulate the U.S. to give in its course.
Adjudication
Based on the above theories, it is true to indicate that both reasons given as to why China launched a spying balloon on U.S. territory are valid. The first reason for internal signaling is supported by the fact that U.S. and China have been rivalries for power and security for decades, with the U.S. seeking to maintain its position while China is challenging it. China’s research on a technology that began and is popular in the United States is a clear indication that China has some information that it needs to share with the U.S. about it. The second reason is supported by the fact that China is very efficient with Salami tactics and it has used them in the past, and the fact that China’s actions meet every pre-condition and circumstance under which salami tactic can be done. Generally, this literature provides a far more radical take on international politics and national security. Both internal signaling and the use of the Salami tactic fit the context that through the theory of neoclassical realism, China and the United States are conflicting over power. However, the intensity and influence of the context make the second reason far more convincing.
Analysis
It is very crucial for one to identify what influences nations to manipulate or pose a threat to another nation’s security, especially the Superpower nations. The topic of who should become the world’s leading nation and fight for sovereignty and power over all nations has been an intense topic since China became a fully developed nation. Over the past decades, China was once an ambitious and economically genius nation; China has drawn its attention from what it is/was best at and engaged in the struggle for power over the world superpower, becoming a U.S. national security threat. According to Cox, China was once an ambitious and economically genius nation; now, it has drawn its attention from what it is/was best at and engaged in the struggle for power over the world superpower, becoming a U.S. national security threat (Cox, 2022). China’s increasing thirst for power is leading the nation toward becoming a threat to the national security of America. Rapiodo indicates;
“China today poses a set of growing challenges to our national security,” she said(Raipodo). “That is a fact. It’s deploying its military in ways that undermine the security of our allies and our partners and the free flow of global trade.”
If China is able to have such an impact on the U.S. to the extent that it can sway the national security foundations of the nation, then its strategies and actions must be understood so that future predictions on similar actions can be made and determine how the U.S. should react in the future In case of occurrence of such actions. By recognizing factors that influence China’s action toward threatening the U.S. national security, political actors will be more equipped with knowledge and strategies on how to deal with similar situations in the future to avoid giving the ‘enemy’ too much power based on the energy invested in such activities.
According to neoclassical realism, states attempt to use their power to draw international systems toward their preferences and their own goals. Therefore, the most powerful states pursue far-reaching foreign policies. However, the national structure and the psychology of elites refract their response and international politics. China, Russia, and the United States of America are the superpower nations of the world, and everything they do is to promote their national interests and pursue their own goals of becoming the most influential nations in terms of military power and economic status. Therefore, China, the USA, and Russia keep each other on their toes. These nations are out to get each other in any way possible while avoiding a war that could cost them. Therefore, China having information that the USA has been spying on their country would only be responded to through a less costly internal signaling that would only be interpreted by the United States. These two nations may be doing their surveillance for totally different reasons, but basically, one is doing it to maintain power and control while the other is doing it to gain power.
Neoclassical realism entails that states have to be aggressive towards one another to experiment with the thought and actions of other states. It is because of threats and aggression that security dilemmas among states are created. National Security is the primary interest of any state, which means that the states that are satisfied with their status quo, like the USA, will do anything to maintain their position in the international systems. Other states like China that are not satisfied will always seek ways to challenge the higher-positioned state while also trying to maintain their security, which means avoiding threats that may result in huge retaliations. It is true that states seek to maintain or increase their power so that they can be able to increase their national security. However, it might happen a time when states that are satisfied in their positions find themselves being challenged by states that are not satisfied hence creating a dilemma and misunderstanding, which can sometimes lead to rushed decisions that may result in the other state winning the war against them. For instance, we can say the USA is satisfied with its power in the international systems, and it is always seeking to maintain this power. Therefore, when a nation like China tries to challenge USA’s power and intelligence that promotes USS’s national security, it might be misunderstood, creating meaningless retaliation actions which, if not well thought off, can destroy the nation’s power. Take, for instance, the way the United States retaliated to China’s spying balloon- shooting down the balloon and also shooting down all ‘unidentified’ objects in the U.S. airspace and reducing any possibility of diplomacy détente. China’s aim may or may not have been to destroy the United States bit by bit, but the world is watching their leading nation, and their impact and actions are highly observed; therefore, if the nation takes any unnecessary actions or may act in a way that does not fit the regime of being the world leader, anything might happen, and the unsatisfied nation might win in in the power struggle.
However, the logic of this security dilemma is incomplete. This is because, first, Waltz relies on speculation of intentions rather than structure to explain why states threaten each other even when they are fit economically and in terms of military equipment. Such a dilemma is an apparel and not likely to happen in the real world. Therefore, if nations are threatening and expressing aggression toward each other, it is not for the sole purpose of improving security but to expand their territory and be able to acquire more equipment and allies to help them maintain the new position of power (Schweller, 1996). Both nations (the aggressor and the defender) are interested in relative power. This means that they are all fighting for relative power gains in the international systems and not absolute power because it is unattainable. Therefore, the drive is no longer to promote national security for the nation but to gain power over other nations. Keeping in mind that power is a relative gain while national security is an absolute gain, it is quite true to say that the nations are fighting for power and not promoting their security. Motivated by self-interests of acquiring more power and influence over the international system, China’s motivation to gain more power influenced the use of the Salami tactic on the United States. With more such actions, China is confident enough that even though it might take time, it will absolutely gain power at some point when it has weakened the U.S.
Conclusion
Based on the above theories, the only missing thing is the reality of things. These theories are driven by speculations and ‘maybes’; although they fit into the context well, the truth is only known by the nation’s policymakers and respective leaders. However, using the above information, it is very possible for one to draw informed predictions on political developments and national security that can be used to save a nation from great loss in the future. Through a well-done analysis supported by research and the history of China, the second reason for China using the Salami tactic in the United States seems to be the truest. If so, it is, therefore, necessary that the U.S. starts building up resilient strategies into which the nation would use when responding to any action by the enemy. This is because each move and retaliation it makes, no matter how small, may be used against it in the future. To avoid being sliced into bits but it is important that the U.S. understands the nation around it and what they want from it. This involves both aggressors and defensive or satisfied nations. Sometimes nations can rise from the bottom, prepare and build-up, and risk everything to fight the top nation in the quest for power.
References
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