Abstract
The evolution of cybercrime in the future demands more proactive measures to strengthen cybersecurity. This paper aims to analyze the future direction cybercrime will likely take and the possible countermeasures. The paper has emphasized the need for collaboration between countries and agencies to have a more assertive defence approach. It portrays the need for information sharing, collaboration, and partnership. Cybercriminals always tend to plan ahead of the cybersecurity officers, where they develop sophisticated methods to conduct their attacks. More robust cybersecurity measures within the organization are needed, such as robust authentication methods, secure data backups and frequent software updates. There is also the need to develop post-quantum cryptographic systems essential in addressing issues connected with quantum computing. These measures will help different stakeholders counter cybercrime and protect against future threats.
Cybercrime in the Near Future
Cybercrime activities are now evolving at a faster rate than ever. For example, in 2021, there was an increase in the number of companies that had incurred losses due to ransomware activities. These activities bring significant economic impact, costing the economy more than 445 billion dollars annually (Oosthoek & Doerr, 2019). The cost per breach is expected to rise steadily in the future. Even though it is challenging to predict the exact evolution of cybercrime in the future, some current trends can give a picture of cybercrime in the future.
How Cybercrime May Evolve In The Near Future and How to Counter It
Cybercrime is likely to evolve through increased sophistication. Cybercriminals are likely to make their attack methods more sophisticated. There is an increase in attackers’ opportunities that come with more advancements in the Internet of Things. The increased number of devices connected to the Internet creates more entry points for cybercriminals. As these devices become sophisticated and so do the cybercriminals’ tools. There is already an increase in the use of automated malware deployment tools (Oosthoek & Doerr, 2019). They are now becoming sophisticated, making it hard to be detected. Attackers also use encrypted communication, making it challenging for the security team to track the attackers. The use of these automated hacking processes and being able to evade detection will make cybercrime more rampant in the near future.
The countermeasure to this is to ensure individuals and organizations invest in having strong cyber security measures. Organizations should have threat intelligence sources that provide relevant, accurate and timely security data. Organizations should consider having robust authentication methods and updating software and systems regularly to ensure they are informed about the latest defense measures. They should also consider having vital backups for their data, for example, in the cloud environments.
Another way that cybercrime may evolve in the future is through collaborations between cybercriminals and state-sponsored actors. There is increased collaboration between nation-state actors with attackers, which causes profound implications. The state-sponsored actors have access to advanced capabilities such access to artificial intelligence and sophisticated attack techniques (Sailio et al., 2020). Their collaboration with attackers can thus leverage these resources and expertise to conduct severe attacks. The attackers may also be willing to sell their skills to these actors as their main aim is profit, not politics. As such, it is possible that there are likely more cases of sophisticated cybercrimes in the future.
Different nations should enhance international cooperation with other nations and international organizations to aid in information sharing and cooperation to address the issue of cyber threats. Nations may also consider investing in cyber deterrence to discourage collaboration between attackers and actors. For example, there should be diplomatic efforts and international agreements on actions against those involved in malicious cyber activities.
Lastly, quantum computing threats may make cybercrime evolve in the future. Most cyber security researchers are concerned about the new type of computer. The quantum computer depends on quantum physics instead of standard electronics, which can break modern cryptography. They have the potential of breaking into secure systems and stealing sensitive information such as state secrets or financial information. It can break the commonly used encryption algorithms (Fernandez-Carames & Fraga-Lamas, 2020). For example, Shor’s algorithm may render the RSA encryption algorithms vulnerable when executed in a quantum computer. As such, any information protected using encryption will be at risk. These computers also pose risks to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which depend on cryptographic algorithms for security. Therefore, even if the quantum has some solutions to cybersecurity issues, it poses new cyber threats. To counter these risks, cybersecurity researchers should work on strong quantum-resistant encryption algorithms to assist with standing attacks from quantum computers to ensure sensitive data remains secure. As quantum computing upgrades, firms and states need to invest in strong post-quantum cryptographic systems.
How Agencies and Countries should collaborate to Counter Cybercrime
Collaboration between countries and agencies is essential in countering cybercrime in the future. The collaboration should be in different forms. First, it is in the form of information sharing. The collaboration will be beneficial in the early detection and prevention of threats. Cybercriminals are over the world, and through Internet connections, their activities affect information shared globally. Sharing information about attack trends, attack signatures, forensic information, and emerging threats will assist agencies and countries in collaborating and preventing these attacks (Ghernaouti et al., 2019). There will be proactive defense measures which will ensure countries ad organizations do not suffer cybercrime losses. Not all nations or agencies have all the knowledge and skills required to deal with cybercrime. Information sharing will enable exchanging expertise and knowledge to develop more effective preventive measures. However, it is worth noting that information sharing should be done with appropriate safeguards to safeguard sensitive information and adhere to privacy rights. Agencies and countries should adhere to privacy and legal regulations and use trusted communication channels.
Agencies and countries should also consider having public-private partnerships to counter cybercrimes. Cybercrime affects both public and private entities; thus, working together will assist in creating a practical defense approach. It will be easier to share knowledge based on each experience, which will strengthen the cyber security posture. Cybercriminals are always innovative and move fast and more sophisticatedly when it comes to leveraging the power of partnerships. As such, states and organizations need to embrace deeper and stronger partnerships with the private sector, the leading technology providers, and the public sector good at law enforcement (Ilbiz & Kaunert, 2023). The partnership will assist in overcoming cyber threats as the public sector will lighten the burden through law enforcement. The partnership will create greater threat intelligence, an essential cybersecurity framework. Although most organizations are aggressively moving towards using artificial intelligence and machine learning as an automated approach to threat intelligence, neither the public nor private sector can excel in this alone. Law enforcement agencies are in a position to see beyond local and national boundaries to get a bigger view of the cyber threat activities, trends and results. This information elevates the understanding of the private sector analysts and jointly develops a robust strategy (Ilbiz & Kaunert, 2023). Therefore a culture of collaboration and partnership is essential in the war against cybercrime. The public and private sectors should leverage their resources and commit strategically to combating cybercrime.
Conclusion
Cybercrime is anticipated to continue evolving and bring more challenges to the cyber world in the future. The threat landscape will expand with technological advances and interconnected societies through the Internet. As such, proactive measures will be needed to combat these criminal activities. It is anticipated that there will be increased sophistication, increased collaborations between cybercriminals and state-sponsored actors and quantum computing threats. As such, agencies and countries should consider information sharing to assist in the early detection and prevention of threats and have strong partnerships between the private and public sectors.
References
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Fernandez-Carames, T. M., & Fraga-Lamas, P. (2020). Towards post-quantum blockchain: A review on blockchain cryptography resistant to quantum computing attacks. IEEE Access, 8, 21091-21116. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2968985
Ilbiz, E., & Kaunert, C. (2023). Cybercrime, Public-Private Partnership and Europol. In The Sharing Economy for Tackling Cybercrime (pp. 13–28). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20274-2_2
Oosthoek, K., & Doerr, C. (2019). Sok: Att&ck techniques and trends in Windows malware. In Security and Privacy in Communication Networks: 15th EAI International Conference, SecureComm 2019, Orlando, FL, USA, October 23-25, 2019, Proceedings, Part I 15 (pp. 406-425). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37228-6_20
Sailio, M., Latvala, O. M., & Szanto, A. (2020). Cyber threat actors for the factory of the future. Applied Sciences, 10(12), 4334. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10124334
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