1.0 Introduction
The global economy might take many years to return to pre-COVID-19 levels if the COVID-19 epidemic causes one of the world’s greatest recessions in decades. The WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic in mid-March 2020, although the economic impact on South America may have begun even before the first cases were reported. Consequently, the global trade fell 5% in the first quarter of 2020, and plummeted by 20% for the year[1]. In addition to the obvious dangers to human health, the pandemic has a detrimental influence on the world’s food systems. It threatens food and nutrition availability, accessibility, use, and stability[2]. COVID-19 threatens food security in Trinidad and Tobago because of the tight association between economic hardship and hunger. Disruptions in supply, a change in customer demand toward lower-quality, lower-cost alternatives, and volatility in food prices all affect. Preventive measures harm Caribbean economies in numerous ways, such as reduced state income and decreased goods exports, which are predicted to fall by nearly 17% in 2020 due to these restrictions[3]. In the Caribbean, more than half of the population relies on agriculture for both their livelihoods and their ability to eat. The food security of numerous Caribbean countries and their development toward the SDGs would be jeopardized by any trade imbalances. First few months after the epidemic began, there were a number of studies looking at the impact on the globe’s economic models, food production, food hygiene and agrarian markets. In the event of a worldwide pandemic situation, the Caribbean, the Middle Eastern, and North African nations are the least likely to be affected. The anticipated loss of GDP is roughly 3% under global and amplified pandemic scenarios. There will be greater demand reductions in all food sectors in the least developed countries (LDCs) than in developed nations, and these effects will be greater for the poorest portions of populations in all countries[4]. Trinidad and Tobago would be worse affected by a reduction of roughly nine percent in 2020 after a forecast decrease in world economic growth of 5%. Agriculture and food production may rise when export revenues plummet and the country’s ability to import food decreases. Still, as demand for urban service jobs declines, more people are drawn to rural areas, where they contribute to greater food production. It is still possible to oversimplify the influence pathways by depending on global models that don’t consider local features, particularly in smaller economies. Economic costs of COVID-19 have been assessed in countries including South Africa, Ghana, and Malawi using single country analysis based on SAM multiplier models[5]According to our knowledge, there is no indication that the pandemic’s effects on the food industry and prices are translated into family food security adjustments. The evidence offered does not provide a perspective on family and production adaptability via substitution options or income and food demand dynamics after the lockdown measures are reduced. Families continue to be affected by the collective decline in economic activity.
Trinidad & Tobago is a good example of a short-term pandemic rebound in the Caribbean because of a variety of factors. For many families, remittances from abroad are their primary source of foreign money, and the government’s ability to cope with the repercussions of the epidemic is hampered because of the country’s heavy reliance on agricultural and informal enterprises[6]. Food poverty in Trinidad and Tobago remained considerable before the COVID-19 epidemic. An estimated one-third of the population was unable to meet their daily calorific requirement of 2,250 kilocalories because of the high cost of food. 35.8% of the inhabitants — or 10.4 million people — are food insecure in rural areas, contrasted to 28.9% in peri-urban areas and 24.4% in core cities. As a result, the government has implemented several public spending and fiscal measures aimed at reducing the epidemic’s impact on the economy and the incomes of those afflicted families. Labor productivity, terms of trade and tourist industry, remittances, domestic demand, and internal trade expenditures are all covered in the study. Consequently, it examines the pandemic’s impact on economic recovery and food security at a variety of levels, including the aggregate (GDP, employment, and trade), the sectorial (production levels), and the household-level (income, consumption patterns, food adequacy, and sufficiency). Various policies and Acts have all been implemented in Trinidad and Tobago to investigate the effect of lockdowns both locally and globally. Food security in Trinidad and Tobago is evaluated using a faceted methodology that considers the complex interplay between the pandemic’s effects and their occurrence across all sectors of the economy. A key finding of the research is that the epidemic has worsened the country’s food insecurity.
2.0 Literature Review
2.1 Impacts of COVID-19 measures on Trinidad and Tobago’s food security
This pandemic began in 2020, causing long-term job losses among displaced individuals and a massive rise in the need for food aid. As a result of the government of Trinidad and Tobago’s social assistance programs only covering citizens and permanent residents, non-nationals in rare circumstances, including the vast majority of displaced individuals, were in danger of poverty and severe food insecurity[7]. It is a partnership between the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and a non-profit organization called Living Water Community (LWC) that provides food aid to persons who satisfy socioeconomic and protection requirements. . This technique minimized human interaction, was protective, matched the amount of emergency aid offered by the government to people, and supported basic food requirements. In Trinidad and Tobago’s third lockdown, measures will begin to effect as early as April 14. There was a State of Emergency in effect until August 2021[8]. The nation was facing its highest COVID-19 caseload and mortality rate since the outbreak began, and displaced people’s livelihoods and food security had been significantly affected.
The UNHCR had prioritized from the beginning of 2021 to help vulnerable refugee families and individuals via cash-based interventions (CBI)[9]. UNHCR had committed US$100,000 for emergency food assistance in response to the Venezuela situation. More than 1,200 families were initially expected to get emergency food assistance this year. Based on current demand and capacity, feedback from partner LWC indicates that this goal would be fulfilled and may be exceeded by the end of June. Furthermore, the LWC Food Assistance Team had been dealing with a significant backlog of food applications since May 5, owing to a lack of processing capacity. For this reason, UNHCR had authorized the reallocation of existing financial resources to improve the food assistance team’s capability. A pre-screening tool developed by LWC helps identify situations that need immediate attention, and the organization is researching technology options that might speed up the screening process. However, suppose the epidemic continues to spread. In that case, it is expected that many of the families who have previously gotten aid will need it again, so there are still capacity issues with which to contend[10]. People who have been relocated and whose applications have been delayed because of the lengthier wait periods needed to meet specific urgent demands have expressed their displeasure. When the new lockdown measures were announced at the beginning of May, the number of applications skyrocketed by 648%, reflecting the backlog in application processing[11]. For emergency food assistance in May, the pre-screening technique utilized by LWC prioritized 400 cases, resulting in an acceptable percentage of 89 percent based on applications completed. There are still a significant number of cases needing attention due to a lack of resources. Thus the most vulnerable are given priority.
According to the evaluations, no one in a home is even occasionally employed by the applicant’s family. In addition, around a third of all families have children under the age of 2 living with them. Almost everyone uses skipping meals as a coping method, and eating twice a day has become the norm owing to the scarcity of food options. GBV complaints and other types of violence are also on the rise, which adds to the problem of food insecurity by reducing the ability and production of survivors via disease, injury, shame, or prejudice. Food insecurity among refugees and asylum seekers may raise the likelihood of violent efforts to return to their countries of origin due to the ongoing economic shutdowns. Other factors have contributed to increased exploitation of families who cannot pay their rent, increased food costs, and import restrictions that delay customs clearance and reduce the buying power of people at supermarkets. Since the introduction of national lockdown measures, most calls to UNHCR hotlines have been for cash-based solutions[12]. According to statistics from May hotlines, requests for food aid had increased by 78%. Notably, a lockdown’s influence on food security is closely linked to changes in family income and the ability to produce food within the restrictions of social distance throughout the supply chain.
As a result, to properly assess family income and food security in a pandemic, a comprehensive view of the economy must be taken into account. TT$6 billion in emergency aid will be provided to the populace over three months, beginning on March 22nd, 2020, when Trinidad & Tobago imposed a lockdown and border closure. By stopping imports, the nation became less reliant on ethnic cuisine, which had climbed from 60 percent to 80 percent of the country’s nutritional intake during the past two decades[13]. Over the last decade, Trinidad and Tobago’s food import expense was anticipated to be TT$4 billion per year. For more than a decade, the agricultural sector contributed less than 1% of GDP because of the country’s over-reliance on oil and petrochemical earnings, a lack of economic diversification, and the agricultural sector’s gradual decline in investor and worker appeal[14]As a result of the pandemic’s supply chain interruption, Trinidad and Tobago turned to domestic food production. Land tenure will be expedited, and the usage of idle state land will be revisited as part of an Agricultural Stimulus Package that was awarded $500 million. According to their response, many farmers were unable to benefit from the fiscal[15]. Fast food and restaurant closures reduced demand for farm products, reducing agricultural benefits. Heavy financial losses were incurred by farmers who had to dispose of different crops. Sixty-six percent of respondents to a World Food Programme study indicated a rise in food costs. More than 50,000 disadvantaged families received free seed packets from the government and food packages from local farms[16]
The food price went up even though there was a rise in domestic food production, backyard gardening, urban agriculture among disadvantaged populations, and some improvement in food security. There have been changes in diets and attitudes of the Caribbean’s farming industry due to the crisis, which have resulted in a reduction in food waste, an upsurge in the intake of fresh and local goods, and the establishment of food gardens. While the COVID-19 crisis had devastating effects on Caribbean families and food security in the short term, it may have planted the seeds for a growing awareness of the need to improve food sovereignty and reduce reliance on imported commodities[17]. Low-income families in the Caribbean, many of whom have lost jobs, are still eager to buy imported food. Still, since certain locally produced fruits and vegetables are cheaper, they support local farmers. Most of the food eaten in the Caribbean region is imported, with imports accounting for over 60% since the 1990s[18]. Coexisting conditions like obesity and other non-communicable illnesses may shift the Caribbean population’s diets toward more nutritious native foods. In the post-pandemic recovery era, it is still difficult to forecast changes in food consumption behavior and habits. Slash-and-burn farming and shifting cropping on hillslopes are two examples of poor agronomic practices that might make a move to locally produced food unsustainable.
Farming on steep slopes, regimenting rivers, flash floods, and crop damage and loss have been problems associated with small-scale hillside farming. A multi-pronged approach to accomplishing environmental sustainability goals in the country’s agriculture policy necessitates land redistribution plans, educational initiatives for farmers, economic incentives to encourage improved agricultural methods, and the use of new research and technology. Sustainable hillside farming is being promoted by the United Nations Development Program and The Cropper Foundation of Trinidad and Tobago to improve crop yields and mitigate environmental hazards. Farmers’ poor earnings while using environmentally friendly methods are to blame for the limited adoption of these activities[19]. Food and nutrition security concerns in the Caribbean islands need long-term technical support for small farmers, who are crucial players in reducing the ecological footprint of food production systems.
Because agriculture is so vital to the economy of Trinidad and Tobago – g iven that it accounts for one-third of the country’s GDP and employs more than half of the population, an economical approach to food systems analysis in Trinidad and Tobago is critical[20]. Formidable Epidemic Disease was declared on March 27th, 2020, and with it came a series of restrictions and social-distancing protocols in Trinidad and Tobago. These included the closure of schools, the suspension of international flights except for cargo and evacuation planes, the reduction of public transport capacity to 60%, and the suspension of all government services. In the event that businesses were forced to shut down entirely or partially, this would have a direct impact on family income in the form of fewer wages and other rents. A decrease in family income may have resulted in decreased demand for goods and services, which may have harmed the economy. The spread of the epidemic outside of the nation significantly affected the economy[21]. The decline in commodity and service demand in other nations led to a decline in exports and tourism, which had severe consequences for export-oriented industries like horticulture. This might lead to a decrease in family income due to decreased remittances from diaspora workers. Import prices may have arisen due to the decrease in incoming foreign exchange, which in turn caused the local currency to weaken.
The government of Trinidad and Tobago responded with several recovery measures in reaction to these negative impacts. Changes in VAT taxation were used to impact commodity prices, including food prices. In contrast, tax cuts were used to stimulate domestic production for example turnover and profit taxes, and enhance family income for example transfers and income taxes. The government addressed health care and economic recovery in a coordinated effort. US $ 440 million was budgeted for higher healthcare expenditure and COVID-19 monitoring expenses and more significant social protection, cash transfers, and food aid programs. The government also announced an additional 350 million dollars in the Economic Stimulus Program to develop infrastructure and assistance for agricultural, industrial, and tourist sectors[22]. These policies influence the government’s budget on the revenue and spending sides, as tax collections decline in a contracting economy and public spending rises.
3.0 Methods
3.1 Sample and subjects
I was to do research and conduct a survey from family, friends, and randoms in Trinidad and Tobago and later give a follow-up interview from the survey via zoom. I was supposed to go to Trinidad and Tobago for spring break, but American Airlines was acting up and told me I had to reschedule my flight. However, we could only obtain information from around 300 houses because of the limited resources. The Central Statistical Office drew the sample. Trinidad and Tobago’s ethnic and socioeconomic features were represented in the target region, one of the seats in north-central Trinidad. In the region, you’ll find anything from a well-heeled suburb of the city to slums on the northern slopes of the mountain range, where poverty and congestion are commonplace. Traditional agricultural activities in the region, such as market gardening, have been curtailed due to the growth of residential developments. Many fruit plants may be found in abundance. A two-stage sampling method was used in this study. A total of 15 enumeration districts (ED) from the constituency were chosen in the first selection round. In this case, the ED were prioritized according to their size (number of households) and then randomly picked. A random sample of 20 homes from each ED was chosen to form a cluster in the second step. We gathered data from individuals over the age of 25 by using internet tools such as Zoom to count everyone who was online at the time. The research ethics committee approved the study, and participants signed a written permission form.
Those taking part in the study were asked to answer questions through an online interview. This study included items on a diet before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, food security, tobacco, and alcohol usage, physical activity, general health before and during the pandemic, and socioeconomic factors. Qualified interviewers, who typically conduct the Central Statistical Office surveys, conducted the questions. Many of the questions in the survey were derived from the Health Survey for England 1994 report with the consent of the authors. The core module for food security is another name for this instrument. Our online interviews revealed that the six elements were easily comprehended. It contained a brief meal frequency questionnaire.
It was determined that the following frequency ranges were used: more than twice daily; once daily; five to six times weekly; three to four times weekly; one to two times weekly; less than once monthly; seldom or never. Royal Castle, KFC, Roti, and a curry, Bhaji, and rice, or dumpling were a few of the responses I received from the surveyors. Before COVID, did you and your family face a food shortage? The pandemic: What did you consume before the disease? Did you or anybody in your home go hungry during COVID? When the epidemic struck, what did you eat? How did the COVID-19 epidemic and the accompanying economic challenges affect you and your family? Do you mind if we do a second interview with you through Zoom? The lowest three and the top four categories were merged for the study. ‘How would you define your ethnic group?’ was asked of the participants. Respondents were divided into six groups based on their responses: Caribbean, Indian, White, Chinese, Mixed, Other, and Unknown. An abridged version of the categories contained in the country’s official census is provided below for convenience. After much deliberation, it was decided on the following classifications: “Afro-Trinidadian,” “Indo-Trinidadian,” “Mixed,” and “Other and not known.” As part of the study, participants were also questioned about the number of adults and children living in their household, their educational level, as well as their job condition. To get things started while still in TnT, I emailed the survey out to my immediate family two days before I was scheduled to leave for the airport. Food insecurity was not communicated to the surveyors before they were given the questions.
3.2. Macro-micro analysis framework
Calibration of a microsimulation module paired with a Food Security and Nutrition microsimulation module for Trinidad and Tobago will be based on the most recent World Health Organization data from 2015/2016. It is the CGE model that feeds the macro-micro coupling to evaluate the consequences of FS&N on food availability and sufficiency metrics and other household parameters into the microsimulation module, which is then input into the macrosimulation module. Because of this coupling, the effects of these policies may be extended to all family income levels, allowing for the calculation of realistic economy-wide effects at the sectoral and subnational levels, among other things. The DEMETRA CGE model is used in this research for the country of Trinidad and Tobago, which has a diverse range of economic sectors and household types to consider. In order to quantify the repercussions of this model’s results at multiple levels, the findings may be broken down into the following categories: sectoral (outputs and costs), household (incomes and demand from consumers), regional (households traveling around the nation), and overall (GDP and employment). It is an essential component of the DEMETRA model that economic activity is divided into a number of different manufacturing processes[23].
Assumption based on an open economy that local price fluctuations do not affect global price changes. Subsistence and marketed commodities are separated, and home products for home consumption (HPHC) are consistently accounted for so that semi-subsistence agriculture may be studied. Prices and quantities are not susceptible to supply or demand side market power on the premise of perfect competition. Annual economic transactions in the SAM have organized around 54 sectors, 12 of which are accounted for by families as home producers, 56 marketed commodities, 19 home commodities, and 23 household groups. For large cities, household groupings are broken down into income quintiles, and for the remainder of the nation, into rural, urban, and agro-ecological zones. A pre-COVID-19 growth rate of 6% for 2020 was used to calibrate the SAM to 2020. Like other CGE models, the DEMETRA model uses yearly time steps to calculate changes in prices and volumes of economic transactions collected[24]. As a result, annualized COVID-19 effects are used in the simulations to account for changes in exogenous factors. As a result, price endogeneity influences demand fluctuations and substitution choices on both the supply and demand sides of the economy in the near run. When the lockdown was enforced in late March, which is generally a busy time for farmers, they could not grow crops like potatoes, cabbages, and onion bulbs.
Consequently, cropping operations remain stationary because of the seasonal nature of agricultural labor demand and the farming choices made before lockdown limitations. An FS&N microsimulation module may be used with the CGE model to compute household food sufficiency and food adequacy implications. Food sufficiency and food adequacy are two essential criteria for measuring the effect of food intake at the household level. A household’s kilocalorie consumption per capita per day is a measure of food sufficiency[25]. This intake in each home may be calculated using the content of household food intake baskets (quantities) and each food item’s nutritional information (per gram). When COVID-19 or a government action affects the food market, families adjust and modify their food intake[26]. Each household’s daily dietary energy consumption (DEC) may rise or fall as a result of these adjustments. Food sufficiency implications are distributed across families’ economic and nutritional attributes using non-parametric regressions. The breakdown of macronutrients in the second food intake metric is used to measure nutritional adequacy. For the average human, each food item has a specific purpose in meeting their dietary requirements. Changing the nutritional composition of family food intake baskets may either improve or worsen the current condition of food sufficiency and, thus, food insecurity.
3.3 COVID-19 Scenarios
Three sets of assumptions are used in the analysis to highlight the degree of uncertainty around the spread of the pandemic both inside Trinidad and Tobago and beyond: Both in Trinidad and Tobago and internationally, the lockdown will take place from April to June 2020. A 10- to 11-week lockdown was implemented in Trinidad and Tobago, with various variations across different economic sectors. Trinidad and Tobago’s existing economic and expenditure policies were established to react to this initial wave of limitations; V–W: indicating just one lockdown in Trinidad and Tobago, but the second set of measures overseas imposing another lockdown internationally during the second half of 2020. Since no more harsh measures have been officially enacted in Trinidad and Tobago throughout 2020, this scenario and the prior scenario V–V serve as a reference; W–W: consisting of new limitations in Trinidad and Tobago in the latter months of 2020 owing to the second wave of cases. Since the first shutdown, this one is expected to have a 25% smaller impact than the last one from April–to June. Curfews, prohibitions on public gatherings, and a restricted opening of the school and hospitality sectors are among the government’s responses to the recent spike in cases in Trinidad and Tobago. If the constraints stated below represent a far worse scenario for 2020, they may potentially reflect a condition that arises at the start of 2021 as well. Five distinct pathways have been examined to determine the influence of the COVID-19 lockout in this study: As a result of reduced working hours and a drop in exports and foreign visitors, remittances have decreased as well as the demand for transportation and hospitality services has decreased. There is insufficient data to incorporate changes in business behavior owing to the pandemic, such as postponed investment choices, in the simulated shocks. Short-term recovery from the COVID-19 consequences is estimated across several fiscal and public expenditure initiatives by the government of Trinidad & Tobago: Economic Stimulus Plan and COVID Spending Plan: Fiscal measures undertaken via the Tax Law. US dollars 360 million is included in the research, including US dollars 100 million in direct assistance to help disadvantaged people whose incomes have fallen. It has been included in the Supplementary Material because a significant amount of money has been plundered from the public coffers in recent years. Increased federal loans and grants worth $1.33 billion are among the policy options being considered to help balance the deficit created by higher government spending and lower tax collections, which would help reduce the deficit. This sum reflects foreign donor packages aimed at mitigating the effects of COVID-19. Internal borrowing is used to cover the balance of the public deficit incurred by the execution of government actions. A second lockdown is possible in Trinidad and Tobago and elsewhere, so the government’s implemented measures are incorporated into the economy-wide model to demonstrate their effectiveness in the event of a second lockdown as well as in the event of a second lockdown abroad and Trinidad and Tobago. While pre-COVID-19 estimates of economic development have been considered in this study’s overall findings, other shocks, such as the flooding in 2020, are not included in the baseline reported as departures from it. Even though it would have been preferable to include them in the baseline, the current data measuring their consequences is still relatively few
4.0 Results
4.1. Economy-wide impacts
Simulated results suggest that the economic impact of the lockdown on Trinidad and Tobago’s GDP might have been as high as 5. 7 percent from April to June 2020, with productivity losses of 5 percent, export demand reduced by 0.8 percent, and a decrease in domestic demand lowering by 0.5 percent. If all of the consequences were taken into consideration, it would have cut consumer demand by 7.4 percent and total employment by 12.9 percent a year on average. The reduction in remittances was 8.1 percent, which would have resulted in a devaluation of the currency and an increase in the cost of imported goods. In addition, export demand decreased by 8.3 percent during the quarter. If the prices had been higher, total imports and food imports would have declined by 12.6 percent and 15.4 percent, respectively, if the prices had been higher than they were. These variables combined to cause a 5.2 percent reduction in GDP between April and June and a 4.3 percent drop in consumer demand over the same period. This encompasses all of the actions of the government. Due to reduced tax rates, cash transfers, and increased public expenditure, real income has increased, internal demand has increased, and the economy has begun to recover to some extent. The healthcare and agriculture industries will reap the most significant benefits with these steps[27]. However, the fiscal loosening and higher public spending lead to a significant rise in the public deficit since they expand the gap between tax receipts and government expenditures.
The calculations see the calculations of effects of a second lockdown on the economy by the end of 2020. Outside Trinidad and Tobago, a further decrease of 0.9% in GDP is predicted, while imports fell by -1.5% (food and animal imports by -15.9%) compared to baseline levels. The GDP shrinks by 8.0 percent, and a reduction in consumer demand by 8.5% compared to the baseline values if limitations are extended to Trinidad and Tobago a second time (W–W scenario). While external variables have a discernible impact on GDP, labor productivity has the most influence, as shown by scenarios V–W and W–W. However, they also demonstrate the vulnerability of Trinidad and Tobago’s food supply to changes in the country’s trade balance[28]. As a result of the April–June shutdown, families in Trinidad and Tobago would have had a 7.7 percent decline in welfare8 owing to a drop in their income. Families in rural regions are hit the most, losing 8.2% of their welfare benefits, while households in urban areas lose 7.2% of their benefits. The government’s actions promote a partial rebound in social benefits. Metropolis and rural regions recover by 2.8 percentage points and three percentage points, respectively, after COVID-19 consequences. Rural welfare continues to decline at the fastest rate of any three family groups. However, in Trinidad and Tobago, these income recovery patterns would be more than negated by a 9.5% decrease in rural families’ welfare in 2020 under the second round of limitations. Employment decreases throughout the economy have an impact on labor revenue.
The lowest and most semi-skilled workers saw the most significant cuts. High-skilled employment, in particular, tend to be more served by government initiatives than lower-skilled ones. These employment dynamics have the most detrimental impact on families when low-skilled labor is the primary source of income. Household demand for food commodities is expected to decline as a consequence of the lockdown implications, even as a change in household expenditure determines that a more considerable percentage of total income is spent on food. The demand shift would only be felt in the market to a large extent since household consumption would remain the same. Because of the decline in tourists, demand for vegetables and poultry is surging, even though these products are also seeing some of the steepest price cuts. Most food commodities saw consumption losses due to the lockdown cut in half or less under the government’s. Although wheat, rice, and oilseeds have the lowest recovery impact, they have a significant impact. There has been a significant rise in demand for a variety of food categories, including meat, dairy, seafood, roots, fruits and pastries, and drinks, compared to the baseline. However, the weakening of the US dollar has made imported items more costly, resulting in a second lockdown overseas. Food demand in Trinidad and Tobago continues to decline as a result of further restrictions.
4.2. Implications for food safety and nutrition
According to the FS&N microsimulation, DEC per capita decreases across all scenarios at the national level. When government actions are absent, the worst effects on food consumption are seen. 3.32 percent of families in the United States fall below the daily kilocalorie requirement of 2,250 per person. Rural families face the most significant decline in DEC/capita due to the government’s income assistance policies. Households in this subgroup had the lowest pre-COVID-19 DEC per capita. As a result, although government policies help reduce DEC consequences overall, they favor urban residents. Additionally, homes with children who are stunted have lower calorie consumption. Rural families tend to be the most impacted by the second wave of restrictions overseas because of the negative effect on all food commodities except vegetables. The second shutdown overseas significantly influences the consumption of cereals, bread, oils, and fats in Trinidad and Tobago homes because of their calorie content. As a result of the decrease in DEC, families who fail to satisfy at least one of the WHO macronutrient intake proportions climb from 2.7% to 4.4%. Only peri-urban families benefit significantly from national government efforts to enhance dietary balance. In contrast, rural households are primarily responsible for the overall prevalence of an imbalanced diet. The incidence of an imbalanced diet has increased from 1% to 3% in households with children who have been stunted. When families in the medium and upper-income percentiles’ macronutrient intakes are examined, the lockdown has the most significant impact on their intakes. Impact curves are shifted from -3 to less than -1 for all three macronutrients thanks to the government’s intervention in the economy. In homes with greater per capita incomes, a better recovery, particularly in terms of fat and protein consumption.
5.0 Discussion
The right to enough food and freedom from hunger is guaranteed for all citizens. Poor people in the nation are more likely to suffer from food and nutrition insecurity linked to poverty[29]. Priority is placed on achieving national food security in Trinidad and Tobago’s Vision 2030 and the government’s Big Four Action Plan to improve nutrition. From 2006 to 2016, the percentage of food-insecure persons reduced from 45.8% to 32.0%, while food-insecure individuals decreased from 16.3% to 14.5 million[30]. But our research shows that the COVID-19 lockdown’s economic effects might undo the gains in food security made over the last several years. The fall in GDP and family income that occurred due to the lockdown from April–to June might have led to a decrease in the demand for food commodities. The adverse effects on welfare and food security that have been caused by government budgetary and public expenditure initiatives have been somewhat mitigated. Rural areas and those with high rates of stunting and malnutrition, on the other hand, exhibit the slightest change in calorie intake and macronutrient balance, according to the findings. Most of the residents experience the minor adverse effects of government actions on their income and food consumption, followed by those in the peri-urban districts.
More food and economic assistance programs for the most in need are justified in light of these results. Only a tiny percentage of families in Trinidad and Tobago have received some safety net support, while many people continue to miss meals as a consequence of the epidemic[31]. Increasing the size of the cash payments program and extending its reach to those in the lowest 40% of income brackets is an essential strategy for improving short-term food security. Rural populations were already at risk of insufficient calorie intake before to the pandemic, and their income and food consumption have lagged behind in the recovery after the epidemic. The sensitivity analysis of the transfer amount may reveal that there is a trade-off between economic recovery and food security for lower-income families. We found that the current government efforts could not fully restore food security in the event of the second round of restrictions. Trinidad and Tobago’s food security relies heavily on the pandemic’s progress outside the nation. Due to reduced exports and a weaker domestic exchange, imported food items become more expensive and less accessible, resulting in lower food consumption[32]. Additionally, the government’s ability to handle other economic obstacles may be restricted because the initial set of actions has dramatically extended the public deficit in Trinidad and Tobago. Even if the USD 1.33 billion in international COVID-19 aid is increased and debt is adjusted to ensure that medium-term recovery is not burdened by debt service repayments, the rise in foreign debt might make it more challenging to get new loans in the near term. The authors recognize that employing a general equilibrium paradigm in areas like the Caribbean, where market failures are prevalent, is problematic.
During the same time, the WHO data from 2015/2016 may have reflected a different mix of food consumption at the pandemic’s start. Despite this, the scenarios’ income and food security effects provide an ordinal picture of the most prominent impact pathways (productivity reductions owing to mobility limitations, lower exports, and remittances) previously documented for Trinidad and Tobago[33]. Recovering economic activity following the first shutdown has been accompanied by a depreciation of the currency, as well as decreased food imports, according to the statistics provided up to October 2020. (although it is still early to uncover proof)[34]. For the April–June shutdown period, the GDP statistics are following the -4.3 percent GDP deviance forecasted. Global food security might be safeguarded by local governments taking appropriate legislative steps and receiving financial help from the international community. To ensure an equitable recovery from the pandemic, the government should focus these investments on the most vulnerable populations.
5.1 Study Limitations
The size and structure of the sample were the primary drawbacks of the research, which had a small sample size. We wanted to select a region representative of Trinidad and Tobago’s socioeconomic status. This sample had a more significant percentage of those with university degrees and a smaller percentage of those who didn’t have a water supply in their homes. 18 More wealthy regions had a lower percentage of participation, which might have led to overestimating the frequency of food insecurity in such areas. As a result, family income and BMI statistics were unavailable for 16% and 24% of the first respondents, respectively. The survey’s thoroughly standardized instruments and the survey’s trained personnel made it so compelling. In the United States, the HFSS has been widely investigated. We utilized the same scale since Trinidad and Tobago is an English-speaking nation so that the findings could be compared. The questionnaire was not mainly evaluated for Trinidad and Tobago usage. Ethnic disparities in food insecurity may increase the prospect of cultural variances in reaction to this tool.
6.0 Conclusion and Recommendations for Further Study
There are both new and conventional responses to the epidemic by countries in the Caribbean islands. The pandemic was a catalyst for greater regional control over food supplies in Trinidad and Tobago. This transition toward self-reliance must encompass climate change for long-term climatic and ecological sustainability. Droughts, high heat, heavy precipitation, ocean warming, and floods are examples of climate change repercussions that might harm agricultural productivity. Agriculture systems that can withstand the effects of climate change may be possible thanks to newer and less costly scientific methods. Climate-smart agriculture may help farmers cope with the effects of climate change while ensuring long-term agricultural sustainability. Nonetheless, ensuring that the needs of poor and vulnerable farmers are taken into account throughout the transition is critical. For island states like Fiji, which depend heavily on subsistence systems for their economy, post-COVID opportunities to strengthen food sovereignty are similar. Raised gardens and irrigation terracing for root crops have been suggested but seldom implemented as conventional enhanced production methods. These could help lowland coastal dwellers adapt to the salinization of groundwater caused by sea-level rise in the near future. People in many island situations have the opportunity to transition away from the pre-COVID practice of relying only on currency, thanks to the return of barter as a means of sustaining themselves. Both to help the country recover and to recognize the many concerns of most SIDS’ rising reliance on foreign financing for both “development” and climate change adaptation, governments (and their donor partners) may make this happen. There are new chances to make the travel sector more sustainable due to the current epidemic. Tourism may be reinvigorated through more cooperation between the public and commercial sectors and between areas.
Small-scale ecotourism has a lot of potential for more sustainable tourism, generating a significant amount of cash. It has also hastened changes that were already on their way, reinforcing the need for island tourist products to adapt and incorporate digital technology more swiftly. In the long term, economic recovery will need a new business model that promotes a diverse range of products and services while making travel more convenient, affordable, and environmentally friendly. Once again, it is essential to ensure that the advantages are shared with the most disadvantaged in society. To ensure that the post-COVID-19 recovery is built on sustainable and fair standards, we can play an important role in building economic instruments to accomplish this purpose. An company hoping to recover part of the enormous expenses associated with the outbreak may be unwilling to take the risk associated with such alternatives. When it comes to promoting well-established tourist destinations, the tourism industry may revert to its more traditional methods. The rivalry from more reachable Pacific island countries with sufficient infrastructure and experience also inhibits expansion as long-term tourism destinations. Pandemics are a good opportunity to highlight the vulnerability of current systems to climatic and other shocks as well as the potential for rethinking such systems in order to improve resilience and the health of the world. Island case studies show a shift toward self-reliance in certain responses. In spite of this, tourism is essential for several developing nations as they attempt to recover from the COVID-19 economic blow. A COVID-19 recovery can’t be achieved with a one-size-fits-all approach. These case studies show that the journey to a climate-resilient COVID-19 rebound is likely to be a bumpy one, with solutions emerging via trial and error, ingenuity, and knowledge-sharing across the Caribbean community.
Researchers are already drawing general conclusions about how to react to food insecurity from the COVID-19 pandemic, but more work is required to identify the context-specific linkages between food insecurity and COVID recovery so that concentration on one does not impair the capacity for the other. Governments have been monitoring infection rates and imposing local limitations due to the COVID-19 problem. Lessons may be learned about creating and mending partnerships across civilizations necessary for food insecurity. To minimize risks, a growing body of research on how to recover from the COVID-19 disaster emphasizes the requirement of “building back better”. Post-disaster reconstruction, on the other hand, frequently delegitimizes vulnerable populations by neglecting to interact with their aspirations and capabilities in the context of their own communities. To ensure that efforts meet the needs of the impoverished and most vulnerable, equity must be at the heart of food security decision-making.
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[4] Natasha Kuruppu and Reenate Willie, “Barriers to Reducing Climate Enhanced Disaster Risks in Least Developed Country-Small Islands through Anticipatory Adaptation,” Weather and Climate Extremes 7 (March 2015): 72–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.001.
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[7] J John, “Maternal Dietary Quality and Socio-Demographic Status and Their Association with Food Insecurity in the St. George Region of Trinidad and Tobago,” West Indian Medical Journal, July 26, 2016, https://doi.org/10.7727/wimj.2016.048.
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[9] Emily Lyles et al., “Multi-Purpose Cash Transfers and Health among Vulnerable Syrian Refugees in Lebanon: A Prospective Cohort Study,” BMC Public Health 21, no. 1 (June 19, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11196-8.
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[27]Carol R. Oladele et al., “Perceptions of the Local Food Environment and Fruit and Vegetable Intake in the Eastern Caribbean Health Outcomes Research Network (ECHORN) Cohort Study,” Preventive Medicine Reports 26 (April 1, 2022): 101694, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pmedr.2022.101694.
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