Al-Qaeda (AQ) is popular for attacks that have significantly impacted the globe. Founded by Osama bin Laden in 1988, it has been accountable for several acts of terror, most famously the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US (Stanford University, 2019). This piece explores AQ’s potential threat to specific targets within the local environment, focusing on the city of Chicago. The work will also explore why AQ might select these targets, how they might approach them, and the potential escape strategies that might be used. Finally, this text will develop a contingency plan, outlining the response from City, State, or Federal resources in the event of an attack. This extensive analysis will assist in the comprehension of and preparation for the potential threats AQ poses in the local environment.
Targets in the Local Environment
Chicago is a vibrant and diverse city with plenty to offer. It is the United States third-most populous city, famous for its rich cultural heritage, sports culture, and being a business hub (Facts & Statistics, n.d.). These aspects make Chicago vulnerable to potential attacks from AQ. Notably, the city is home to eight major league sports teams and hosts over 40 annual film festivals, 74 music festivals, and 36 annual parades, among many other significant events (Facts & Statistics, n.d.). These events, due to their prominence and attendance, are attractive targets for terrorists seeking to cause high casualties. Large-scale events, in particular, are possible targets for challenging the AQ’s belief that moral deterioration is occurring in the West. These events serve as emblems of Western culture and values.
Chicago, like any other major city, houses government buildings. These institutions reflect the policies and governance of the US. For example, the Everett McKinley Dirksen Courthouse is a court that shaped America, hosting notable trials, such as the Al Capone, Hans Max Haupt, and the Chicago Seven cases (Courthouse Information, n.d.). So, attacking this and other similar institutions can disrupt operations and send a political message. Chicago’s critical infrastructure might also be susceptible to AQ attacks. The city has facilities, like O’Hare International Airport, the globe’s second-busiest airport and among the United States’ most important transportation hubs (International Airport Review, 2023). The city also has water and power facilities and public transit systems, which help ensure Chicago’s smooth operations. Targeting this infrastructure could disrupt normal functioning and cause widespread chaos. Moreover, academic establishments, like the prestigious University of Chicago, can be viewed as soft targets because security levels in such institutions are usually low. An attack on these schools could generate significant public fear and panic.
Approach to Targets
AQ’s strategy for hitting different selected targets in Chicago would entail varied scenarios based on the attributes of each site. To illustrate, this piece considers the large-scale events, the Everett McKinley Dirksen Courthouse, O’Hare International Airport, and the University of Chicago. With a particular focus on Millennium Park, this venue, the city’s leading tourist destination in 2017, hosts a constantly changing schedule of free cultural activities suitable for all age groups all year (Facts & Statistics, n.d.). Such events often have tight security because of the presence of high-profile individuals and celebrities who might attend. So, AQ would infiltrate the events’ security perimeter. Doing so would entail operatives posing as event staff, vendors, or even attendees to gain access to crowded areas. AQ would exploit insider threats or sympathizers within the event’s workforce to facilitate the deployment of explosive devices or execute assaults. A key element of their plan would involve surveillance and reconnaissance. They would use social media and publicly accessible data to find security gaps, evaluate the efficacy of security precautions, and choose the best spots for the event to have the biggest impact. For example, the Jay Pritzker Pavilion is a suitable target. The pavilion’s open-air design makes it vulnerable to an armed assault or bombing during an event, resulting in significant casualties.
AQ tactics would be more covert when attacking an important government structure, like the Everett McKinley Dirksen Courthouse. According to the US General Services Administration, when entering the Dirksen Courthouse, every guest is screened per the standards of the US Marshals Service (Everett M. Dirksen U.S. Courthouse, 2023). This aspect implies that security at this institution is high, and AQ will have to look for alternative approaches to enter the building. In this sense, AQ would recruit people with authorized access (such as security personnel and officials) to the courts to set up explosive devices or carry out operations from within. Surveillance and reconnaissance activities would include monitoring security processes, camera locations, and critical staff routines. AQ would also use cyber surveillance to obtain information about the courthouse’s security systems, giving the group an advantage in planning.
In the case of O’Hare International Airport, AQ would focus on exploiting vulnerabilities within the transportation infrastructure. Infiltration would entail individuals seeking employment at the airport or those with insider information to get past security checks. AQ would surveil passenger screening procedures, luggage handling, and flight schedules to identify weak points in security. Finally, when contemplating the University of Chicago as a potential target, AQ would take advantage of academic institutions’ open and diverse nature. According to Eldor et al. (2022), in school, learners encounter a range of political attitudes and ideas that are different from what they may be used to at home. So, the risk of radicalization is quite significant. In that context, AQ’s strategy at the University of Chicago would include radicalizing students or anyone associated with the university. Surveillance and reconnaissance operations would focus on identifying possible targets. Vulnerable individuals encompass people with psychological issues, those with a criminal or abusive background, and individuals associated with delinquent peers (Smith, 2018). Other surveillance activities include evaluating campus security measures and looking for weaknesses in access control or security processes. AQ will then strike after gathering every relevant piece of information. Lecture halls and playing fields, where many students gather, would be the intended targets.
Terror Group Tactics on-Scene
AQ had demonstrated a diverse set of strategies when conducting attacks. Given the range of potential targets in Chicago, the group’s strategy would undoubtedly differ to maximize the impact of their assaults. When targetting large-scale events, like those hosted in Millennium Park, suicide bombings would likely be the preferred method, given their potency. Female suicide bombers have been shown to be quite effective (O’Rourke, 2009). With AQ’s assault methods evolving, they would probably employ females to maximize the effectiveness of their attacks. Additionally, with the crowded nature of large-scale events, AQ could also employ armed assaults, which might be pretty deadly in such situations. On the other hand, the Everett McKinley Dirksen Courthouse, a symbol of government authority, is also a prime target. In this context, AQ might employ a multifaceted approach. This strategy might involve a blend of armed assaults and the deployment of explosive devices. This method is consistent with one of the group’s fundamental objectives of retaliating against perceived injustices, as Benjamin et al. (2003) showed, and undermining the government’s credibility.
O’Hare International Airport is a critical transportation hub, and AQ will aim to paralyze its operations. So, Hijackings of commercial airliners, akin to the tragic incidents of 9/11, would definitely be on their agenda (Federal Bureau of Investigation, n.d.). Like before, as the Federal Bureau of Investigation (n.d.) highlights, the terrorists would aim to hold people hostage and perhaps use the planes as powerful weapons. Another strategy that AQ may contemplate is the sabotage of airplanes on the tarmac or in servicing facilities. This approach might entail putting bombs or jeopardizing their structural integrity. Such acts would impede air traffic, cause economic losses, and spread fear. Attacks on airport security checks are also a possibility. Suicide bombs or shootings at these vital access points to secure areas of the airport could result in casualties and deterrence of air travel. AQ’s goal would be to demonstrate the vulnerability of even the most secure airport facilities, weakening public trust in aviation security systems.
For the University of Chicago, AQ might conduct attacks targeting the student population and academic institutions. Mass shootings might be one tactic used. Attackers may invade lecture halls, dormitories, or common areas, causing casualties and instilling fear and vulnerability among students, faculty, and staff. A similar strategy was used by AQ-affiliated al-Shabaab in Kenya, where attackers shot and killed 148 people at Garissa University College in April 2015 (Odhiambo et al., 2015). With the University of Chicago’s population being higher than that of Garissa University College, AQ might prefer mass shootings to inflict maximum damage. Hostage situations might also be part of AQ’s plan. In such cases, individuals within the university community might be held captive, serving as bargaining chips for AQ’s demands. Such situations would result in lengthy standoffs involving law enforcement, perpetuating fear and uncertainty among university stakeholders.
Regarding escape plans, AQ members are likely to have well-thought-out exit strategies. They may employ stolen vehicles for a quick and inconspicuous means of leaving the target areas. They may also use public transit, such as buses or trains, to blend in with civilians and avoid suspicion. Moreover, the terrorists might likely have safe houses strategically situated across the city. Such places would be brief havens for agents to recuperate, alter their appearance, and plot their next movements without danger of being apprehended. Malcher (1994) also shows that terrorists are likely to use secondary attacks, like additional bombings, to compound the impact of the initial strikes. While this approach maximizes the damage inflicted, it also creates chaos that allows the attackers to flee the scene quickly. So, AQ operatives might employ secondary attacks to facilitate their escape.
Contingency Plan for Response
A thorough contingency plan for responding is essential for effective response during attacks. This strategy usually draws on multiple management tactics to address the unique challenges of terrorist threats. For instance, PERF’s Critical Decision-Making Model (CDM), derived from the UK’s police forces, could guide first-line supervisors (FLSs) in decision-making in the event of an attack (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.). It is a five-step tool that helps individuals make organized, rational, and ethical judgments during critical incidents (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.). Considering the specific values and principles that guide each agency is critical in guaranteeing all actions executed correspond with department policy and the purpose of safely resolving the critical event.
In addition, the New York City Police Department’s (NYPD) 7 C’s of a Critical Incident give an achievable checklist for efficiently managing critical occurrences. These concepts are critical for FLSs to assume leadership, keep control, and communicate coherently in the case of a terrorist attack (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.). They help to create confidence in responding officers and ensure that instructions are followed (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.). In a terrorist assault scenario, the concepts of containment, coordination, and avoiding complacency are particularly relevant. FLSs must define perimeters, manage entry and exit points, and coordinate the resources at their disposal, which may include various agencies if necessary (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.). Adopting such frameworks could be instrumental to responding to a terrorist attack efficiently.
Checklist for Managing Critical Incident Responses
This checklist is intended to help FLSs manage various components of a critical incident response. Accordingly, as highlighted by the Police Executive Research Forum (n.d.), FLSs will need to build perimeters, secure and evacuate the site, and set up a command post and staging locations for police and supplies in the event of a terrorist attack. Assignments for traffic management, perimeter maintenance, notification, and coordination with other agencies should be explicit (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.). The checklist stresses maintaining situational awareness and clear communication both within and outside. Documentation is essential because it guarantees that all acts are documented and may be utilized for post-action reporting (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.).
Response Coordination
The response to a terrorist attack must be a coordinated effort involving several authorities and first responders. Local law enforcement agencies, including the Chicago Police Department, Illinois State Police, and federal agencies (like the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Homeland Security) should collaborate. These agencies’ FLSs must appoint an Incident Commander (IC) to oversee the staff and assets on the site (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.). For coordination, a command post must be constructed at a safe distance from the incident (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.). A unified command should be contemplated in large-scale situations involving numerous agency responses (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.). Clear duties and responsibilities must be defined, and FLSs must portray confidence to build trust and decisiveness in responding officers (Police Executive Research Forum, n.d.).
In the aftermath of a terrorist attack, treating victims is a top priority. To provide medical help and transfer wounded victims to hospitals, local services like the Chicago Fire Department and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) should be mobilized. Evacuation protocols must protect both victims and first responders. It is critical for quick victim care and evacuation to establish triage centers and designate specific medical facilities for different sorts of injuries. Finally, panic management is crucial in a terrorist attack scenario, as public fear and chaos can intensify the situation, as Newswander (2012) notes. So, FLSs should maintain control, keep officers and the public calm, and offer accurate and timely information. To guarantee accurate and timely information, a designated Public Information Officer (PIO) should connect with the media. Following the incident, debrief meetings should be held to address both positive and negative outcomes, identify weaknesses, and plan for future incidents.
In today’s security setting, proactive threat assessment and contingency planning are critical. This work has emphasized the importance of these precautions in reducing future terrorist threats. Understanding the tactics, targets, and goals of groups like AQ can help authorities better respond to and prevent acts of violence. Collaboration between municipal, state, and federal institutions is also critical in the battle against terrorism. A well-coordinated response demands first responders, law enforcement, and emergency services to operate fluidly together to safeguard the community. With AQ’s acts causing loss of life, public panic, and economic damage, the need for preparedness and attention in combating such threats is paramount.
References
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