The economy of China has recently been in the news because of its endless expansion phase and progress. From being an isolated country, China now boasts one of the most expansive economies globally. China’s GDP grew exponentially, about 6.8% per year in 2018, compared to 11% per year in 2011 (Peetz, 2019). Because of this progress, there is now more reason to wonder if China’s economic growth will be sufficient to propel it to the status of a superpower, a nation with a strong sense of power and influence within the international system. Moreover, is China’s present position enough to shift global polarity to one representing a multipolar or bipolar system? Polarity is the quantity of superpowers that control the global scene. There is only one superpower in the globe in a unipolar system; two superpowers share power and influence in a bipolar system, and two or more superpowers share most of the power and influence worldwide in a multipolar system. (Abdullahi & Phiri, 2019). To become a superpower, a country must first change its polarity. This state raises the question of whether China possesses the determining criteria or attributes required for a country to attain the rank of superpower. This discussion will examine the economics, military developments, and foreign involvement as the three critical determinants needed to become a superpower or change polarity.
Determination of a Country’s Superpower
The emergence of the United States as a global powerhouse during the Cold War against the Soviet Union following the fall of the Soviet Union will be compared and studied with the current events in China. The most appropriate comparison between China and the United States is after the Cold War, representing the most recent historic turning point in global polarization. The United States moved from a bipolar system, in which it shared power and influence with the Soviet Union, to a unipolar one, in which it was the sole superpower, following the end of the Cold War.
The US employed a highly developed military, a growing economy, and international engagement throughout this period to grow up to its current superpower status. This was furthered by the fall of the Soviet Union, turning polarity into a unipolar system and leaving the United States as the lone superpower. According to Peetz (2019), the current standing of China is crucial since it determines China’s place in the world and the states that wield power and influence, which affects the entire global community. China can become a superpower in the future, even though it has not yet done so or changed polarity when comparing its current military, diplomatic, and economic features to those of the US during the Cold War.
Theoretical Framework
We must first comprehend several ideas and frameworks from international relations theory to properly analyze and comprehend China’s place in the international system. These ideas consist of the economic dominance index, the three frameworks of polarity, and the criteria used to determine whether countries are superpowers. In particular, these are extensively utilized in this discussion to provide a consistent basis to examine a global shift in a nation’s status and its ability to shift polarity, focusing on evaluating China’s development as a future international superpower, both militarily and economically.
Polarity
“The distribution of capabilities among the major structure-producing states” is the definition of “polarity” (Abdullahi & Phiri, 2019, p.11). Peetz (2019) claims that polarity compares a country’s strength, influence, and other capacities to those of other international states to ascertain the polarity structure currently governing our environment. The three polarity constructions this theory allows for are rare: unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar, which come from this definition. A unipolar international system is one in which a single state or country has disproportionate influence.
A bipolar international system differs from a unipolar one in that it comprises two nations with equal global power. Lastly, a multipolar system is a configuration in which three or more countries control the world. To put this into perspective, remember that the US is the only superpower in the world, and that is an example of a unipolar system (Abdullahi & Phiri, 2019). If the United States and China were the only two superpowers in the world system, they would share dominance and influence, making their relationship an example of a bipolar system. Finally, a multipolar system can be seen in how the three superpowers, the United States, China, and Russia, share power and influence globally.
Index of Dominance
The dominance index is a system that considers three factors to determine a country’s ability to dominate a country’s gross domestic product [GDP]. Here, Tunsjø & Dong (2020) have offered a paradigm that helps explain how countries could become more powerful and, in turn, more critical on a global scale. According to him, economic domination also refers to a state’s capacity to use economic tools to influence other countries to follow its wishes or prevent it from pressuring them to do otherwise.
Mearsheimer (2021) indicated that superpower governments have power over other nations because they have resources such as a large economy, stable internal and external finances, trade, military might, technological advancement, and a solid worldwide means of exchange. Nevertheless, the dominance index must be more comprehensive to encompass all the crucial components for a nation to be termed a superpower.
Proposed Superpower Criteria
To fully describe a superpower nation, we must consider the components required to achieve the other forms of dominance (Tunsjø & Dong, 2020). These elements include engagement in international organizations and decision-making, military advancements, and a developing and increasing economy.
According to the three determining elements discussed above, a nation must meet specific criteria to be considered a “superpower” for this discussion. Using an expanded version of the index of economic dominance, this study will look into China’s status as a superpower and the polarity change that resulted from that development.
Literature Review
Regarding China’s “status” as a superpower, there are three ways to look at its current position in the world system. Scholars have previously discussed these three beliefs in past research. These scientists assess China’s standing as a superpower using their variables. A few scholars view China’s position as the world’s most rapidly developing economic power (Tunsjø & Dong, 2020). Furthermore, since becoming a superpower, the US and China have controlled the most extraordinary power and influence over the remaining nations in the world, changing global polarity into a bipolar system, according to these same scholars.
Furthermore, Peetz (2019) contends that the economy of China is the single factor contributing to its ability to stand as a superpower in the future. Some researchers have conducted a different analysis of China and concluded that the country will not attain superpower status but rather that its economic growth will ultimately stagnate. This perspective states that China’s worldwide success will be limited and will never be able to change the direction of the world.
The third and last viewpoint that academics have on the place of China in the globe is that, while it has not occurred yet, China will eventually rise to the status of a superpower. Although it has novel trade initiatives, military advancements, a burgeoning economy, and expanded participation in international organizations, these have not yet increased to the extent that they may challenge the United States’ hegemony over the world stage. Over time, Meyersheimer (2021) concludes that China will ultimately surpass the US and that, when it occurs, the world polarity will change into a bipolar or a unipolar system.
Emerging Superpower
The first school of thinking holds that China’s economy might have already eclipsed that of all other countries. According to Tunsjø & Dong (2020), China has demonstrated its status as a world powerhouse. Based on projections and statistical data, they assert China is “already exercising forms of dominance” in the global economy and the military. In this essay, Subramanian investigates how China’s 15 years of economic growth have “inevitably” made the nation a worldwide superpower. For instance, in 2011, China’s economic growth surpassed that of the US, growing at an annual rate of 11 percent, while the US grew at a pace of 2.5 percent.
According to Bakirci (2021), China’s economic status makes becoming a superpower the only feasible course of action. She also discusses the relationship between wealth, influence, and power. He also points out that China has already begun demonstrating its dominance in the world economy. Its increasing participation in international relations, membership in organizations like the United Nations, and even in different trade agreements are examples of this. Furthermore, China has started asserting its position as a superpower by devaluing currencies and demanding that European and United States companies share its technology to be given China’s market access. In terms of its economic and global participation, China has already emerged as a “baby” superpower, according to Mastro (2019). and other academics.
Regional Power
The second assessment of China’s current global position holds that, as it will never become a superpower, it will never have the opportunity to reverse its polarity. Academics who espouse this viewpoint typically contend that China is too impoverished to develop into a superpower (Peetz, 2019). Even with its recent economic achievements, China’s economy will take decades to overtake the United States. Furthermore, according to these academics, China’s economic growth rate has stagnated at 6.8 percent. They are projected to collapse ultimately, and their economic growth rate is too erratic and unpredictable to keep at its present pace (Abdullahi & Phiri, 2019).
Ahn (2019) states, “Development is slowing down, there are many economic inefficiencies, and service reform has stalled.” As stated differently, China’s economy was expanding too quickly and had already begun to slow down, according to the most recent GDP growth figures. Furthermore, China is supported differently from the US in terms of traveling abroad. Western countries do not view China with the same respect or importance as the United States, even though China is well-established in Asian countries. According to this theory, China can claim its position as a superpower with help from the West. Finally, China’s armed forces are not nearly as strong as the US military regarding manpower and weapons.
Developing Superpower
The last notion widely held regarding China’s place in the global market is that, even if it has not become a superpower, China will rise to prominence. According to these experts, China will emerge as a worldwide superpower in the next ten to fifteen years, coexisting with the United States in a bipolar framework. According to this perspective, given China’s recent political and economic accomplishments, China will likely surpass the United States in dominance over the next fifty years. China’s economy is going the right way but still needs to keep up its growing trade, purchasing power parity, and GDP. In addition, China is concentrating on bolstering its armament and armed forces to challenge the United States, which still holds a dominant position in these domains globally. The biggest obstacle to China’s unavoidable ascent to superpower status is an aging and shrinking population, which would hinder its efforts to expand economically.
Additionally, China is currently a party to trade accords and negotiations with other countries, increasing its perceived might and international influence. (Abdullahi & Phiri, 2019). Suppose China’s current circumstances stay the same. In that case, the country will keep growing and eventually reach or equal the US, becoming either a unipolar powerhouse with the US or a bipolar superpower with China as the only superpower.
Determinants of Superpower Status
The elements required to change the global polarity can be demonstrated by talking about the US throughout its input in the Cold War era. In the era of the Cold War, America established a highly developed model or foundation that can be used to assess whether other countries possess the same capacity and related determinants required to emerge as global superpowers, thereby altering the international polarity system (Corbiscello, 2021). The Cold War is the best model to test for superpower status since it is the most recent instance when a nation changed its polarity and became a superpower. The following elements influence a country’s potential to become a superpower:
Economy
In order to build dominance in the global world, the economy is frequently seen as the most crucial element. Robust economies have the potential to enhance a country’s influence not only on the domestic front but also in its international relations. During the Cold War, the US realized that its economy had to grow in order for it to succeed. Despite experiencing a period of economic collapse in the 1970s, the United States successfully recovered from this period with no long-term negative impacts. They could compete with the USSR during the Cold War by doing this. Ultimately, the recovering and thriving US economy outpaced the collapsing Soviet Union fighting in Afghanistan.
According to Corbiscello (2021), China is currently experiencing an economic situation similar to that of the US, with its economic growth rate able to make it the largest in the world over the next ten years. By 2030, according to Abdullahi and Phiri (2019), “China will contribute to around 20 percent of the GDP of the globe, together with the United States, which will make up slightly less than 15 percent of the world economy. The US boasts the most excellent economy in the world, with the highest GDP of any nation. In 2018, its GDP per person was 59,531 thousand, and 15 percent of world trade will come from China, more than twice that of the US.
Military and Technological Advancements
China is currently the second-largest defense initiative behind the United States, but the difference is still significant. Champion and Leung, for instance, assert that China still lacks the carrier fleets and other tools necessary to project strength. They still need to create a top-tier jet engine and travel to every corner of the world. Furthermore, China is far from as assertive as the United States regarding nuclear power. 2018 China had only 280 nuclear warheads, whereas the United States owned approximately 6,450.
On the other hand, China has concentrated on creating new weapon technology, including cyber and artificial intelligence and hypersonic missiles. Lastly, China does not oppose American military dominance around the world. Lastly, China does not oppose American military dominance around the world. Currently, the US “manages 516 military sites in 41 nations worldwide. Last year, China created its first official outpost abroad.
Diplomacy and International Intervention
One of China’s most significant ongoing projects is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of China’s most important foreign policy initiatives, according to Kironska and Turcsanyi (2023). It is anticipated to strengthen infrastructure, trade, and investment links between China and roughly 65 other countries, accounting for over 30 percent of global GDP, 62 percent of the population, and 75 percent of known energy reserves. This policy initiative will link China to Central and South Asia, Europe, and Northern Africa. China has allowed any country or international organization to participate in this endeavor. Lower trade costs and better connectivity will increase cross-border investment and commerce, and the region’s economy is the BRI’s overarching objective. Ultimately, this project will assist in binding China to the global community.
Corbiscello (2021) claims that China will establish its influence and presence among the 65 other nations willing to participate in the BRI. Thanks to developments and increases in foreign policy spending under President Xi, China can expand its power and influence within the international system. Like China’s military situation, they are trying to strengthen and broaden their diplomatic and global reach. Should China’s growth trajectory persist at this current level, it may eventually become a superpower and challenge the US for exclusive control of the global economic system.
Conclusion
After contrasting the US during the Cold War with modern China, academics concluded that although China possesses the means and circumstances to establish itself as a superpower, it has not done so as yet. According to an analysis of the critical components, China does not have the superpower status that the US needed to tip the scales during the Cold War. The US is the only nation in history to have reversed its polarity right after a fight, which makes drawing parallels between China and the US during the Cold War imperative, as was previously indicated. China’s remarkable and rapid success with one crucial superpower component has attracted the attention of other nations.
China is now known as an economic superpower due to its economic growth and success. However, this designation does not automatically make China a legitimate contender for the superpower label. China continues to lag behind the United States, the only superpower in the world today, in terms of military and technological advancements, as well as global diplomacy. China is getting closer to being a superpower, although it still lacks full superpower status. These elements include a developing military, a growing economy, and increased participation in international organizations and decisions. China can become a powerhouse and even change the direction of polarity if it keeps developing at the current rate and advancing these variables, as it has done in recent years.
Given its existing circumstances, China has the means; it only needs more time to develop it to the point where it can become a superpower. As a result, this study allows the academic community to review and reevaluate China’s place in the international system throughout the next 15 to 30 years. China may maintain its growing economy, keep building and enhancing its military and defense capabilities, and keep imposing its will on global institutions and decisions during a future assessment of China’s place in the world. By doing this, China will be able to become a superpower and change the balance of power in the world economy, military, and diplomacy. Nevertheless, at the moment, China is not a superpower and is far from the status that the United States has achieved over the years.
References
Abdullahi, K. T., & Phiri, J. (2019). Study on the Rise of China as a Dangerous Superpower. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development, 6(1), 133-137.
Ahn, S. H. (2019). What Is to Be Done for China? Anatomy of China’s Super Power Conundrum and PRC-ROK Relations, 24(2), 111–131.
Bakirci, I. (2021). Is the United States’ Economic Power in Decline? Can China Replace the US as the World’s Next Economic Superpower? (Doctoral dissertation, University of Missouri-Saint Louis).
Corbiscello, N. (2021). The Rise of China: The New Global Superpower (Doctoral dissertation, The William Paterson University of New Jersey).
Kironska, K., & Turcsanyi, R. Q. (Eds.). (2023). Contemporary China: a new superpower? Taylor & Francis.
Mastro, O. S. (2019). The stealth superpower. Foreign affairs, 98(1), 31-39.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2021). The inevitable rivalry: America, China, and the tragedy of great-power politics. Foreign Aff., 100, 48.
Peetz, D. (2019). China’s Rise as a Global Superpower. Available at SSRN 3467668.
Tunsjø, Ø., & Dong, W. (2020). The new US–China superpower rivalry: Challenges for Asia and Europe. In US–China Foreign Relations (pp. 1-10). Routledge.
write