Introduction
The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) is a significant foundation project in China that traverses the Pearl Waterway Delta (PRD) and associates Hong Kong, Macao, and Zhuhai. The HZMB is one of the most extended ocean crossing spans, estimated 55km long and tolling roughly 120 billion CNY (or 136 billion HKD) to develop. Since its opening in October 2018, the HZMB has been working for about three years, and The Watchman has depicted it as one of the seven wonders of the modern world. Regardless of its magnificence, the traffic utilization of the HZMB has yet to be essential, as expected. Private vehicles, which make up a critical piece of the bridge’s allowed vehicles, have not entirely used the bridge, and measures taken in the past to resolve this issue have not been completely powerful. This approach research report plans to distinguish the issue with the traffic use of the HZMB, break down past measures taken to resolve this issue and propose new strategy suggestions to develop the traffic use of the HZMB further.
Problem Identification
The HZMB was intended to accommodate a high traffic volume, yet the traffic rates of private vehicles are far below the bridge’s ability. The HZMB is intended to consider transports, taxis, freight vehicles, and private vehicles to cross. However, private vehicles still need to be completed using the bridge, and the toll fees for private vehicles stay high, at 150 yuan for every vehicle. The all-out income for the bridge is around 225 million yuan each year. Given the plan life of 120 years, the total income is projected to arrive at 27 billion yuan, which is not precisely the underlying speculation of 120 billion CNY.
Past Measures & Constraints
Past Measures
Various initiatives have been put in place by the Chinese government to tackle the underperformance of traffic on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB). To begin with, private vehicle passing fees were deferred, which encouraged more people to utilize this infrastructure. Moreover, additional parking lots along the Zhuhai, Macao and Hong Kong coastal areas were constructed mainly to accommodate private cars. The Chief Engineer of HZMB – Quanke Su, recommended a step-by-step way for these parking spaces implementations. Although the waiver taking off passage fee for private cars was increased last year in 2019, it got delayed till December 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s consequences. The Chinese administration has also undertaken various actions such as reducing limitations for accessibility, making it more straightforward for motorists with their vehicles to use this form of commuting, leading to accessibility options available to an even more significant amount of drivers relying on different kinds of transportation modes however despite all these measures taken into consideration solving the underlying cause remains uncertain given formidable factors – high toll charges alongside non-existent or vague living fueling representations in Hong Kong area are presently hindering users from opting using this passage system despite encouragement from multiple policies formed over time. Constantly evaluating each operation’s effectiveness and making periodic corrections methodically can assist authorities in addressing low traffic concerns seen throughout HZMB’s utilization phase.
Constraints
Despite efforts to improve traffic on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB), several constraints must be addressed. One key issue is the balance between public transport and parking facilities in Hong Kong. While prioritizing public transport is more environmentally friendly, many private vehicle owners prefer driving and parking. To encourage HZMB usage, the government could construct additional parking facilities in Hong Kong and promote public transport. Another constraint is the higher toll fees for private vehicles compared to other vehicles, which discourages their use. Lowering personal vehicle tolls could increase bridge traffic, but the impact on bridge income should be carefully considered.
Furthermore, the location of the HZMB poses challenges for private vehicle owners who require assistance reaching the bridge due to its remote location. Building highways or improving public transportation in the surrounding areas could address this issue.
Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted HZMB traffic, with fewer people travelling and using the bridge. To encourage private vehicle owners to utilize the HZMB, the government could consider offering limited toll fees or even free passage (Shan et al., 2023). These measures, combined with relaxing private vehicle registration requirements, have the potential to enhance traffic flow on the HZMB
Problem Definition
Shenzhen Exclusion: The number of cars using the HZMB in Shenzhen’s private car park is three times higher. The traffic volume is projected to increase if Shenzhen joins the HZMB project. However, the G2518 under-construction tunnel between Shenzhen and Zhongshan would further split the traffic flow, reducing the HZMB’s potential use.
Competition in ports: Hong Kong has ten extra passenger ports in addition to the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, while Macao has six new passenger ports. These ports deflect traffic away from the carports operated by the HZMB. Additional ports, like the one built at Sha Tau Kok, will further fragment the traffic flow, making it more difficult for the HZMB to utilize.
Trinary Traffic System: Compared to Mainland China, SARs possess various traffic systems. The differences include driving permit recognition, drivers’ sides, traffic restrictions, and insurance requirements. Due to these variances, using the HZMB effectively and coordinating traffic between various locations is more complicated.
Administrative Quota: Different license plates are needed depending on the ports that private cars access. For instance, two plates are necessary if going to Hong Kong from Macao, while three plates are required if continuing to Zhuhai. These Canton-HK-MO license plates are subject to strict requirements, have few quotas, and are only valid in Guangdong Province. This organizational quota system makes cross-border travel more difficult and limits the use of the HZMB.
Root Cause
Due to the construction of the G2518 tunnel, the communication between the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) and Shenzhen is geographically constrained. The bridge’s overall connection and accessibility are hampered by this omission, which limits the bridge’s potential to connect directly with Shenzhen. As a consequence, the HZMB is no longer an accessible route for potential tourists from Shenzhen, which negatively affects traffic flow via the bridge. In order to fully realize the potential of the bridge and draw in more traffic, it will be essential to get over this restriction and build a continuous link with Shenzhen. The rivalry among ports in the area is another element that impacts how effectively the HZMB is used. Due to the distinct functions and range of transportation demands each port serves, shutting down all nearby harbours would be impracticable. The HZMB’s ability to manage increasing traffic rates is lowered due to the rivalry among ports, which diverts traffic. Optimizing the usage of the HZMB and guaranteeing its practical use as a primary transportation route would require establishing an appropriate compromise between the ports and successfully coordinating their operations.
The HZMB’s trinary traffic system has its own unique set of difficulties. Although it is crucial to remember that compatibility problems do not always mean they cannot be solved, the complexity of the trinary traffic structure has discouraged some would-be crossers. This system’s complexity and users’ lack of familiarity have led to less-than-ideal traffic use. It becomes essential to fix these compatibility problems and make the trinary traffic structure easier to comprehend and use. More individuals would be incentivized to use the HZMB due to increasing traffic and efficiency. Investing in infrastructure expansions and upgrades is crucial to get beyond these constraints. The geographical limits can be overcome, and an improved flow of traffic connecting Shenzhen and the bridge can be made possible by improvements to the current road networks and transit systems that link with the HZMB. Additionally, efficient communication and cooperation across the region’s ports help improve traffic flow and reduce needless detours. Furthermore, dispelling fears and encouraging more motorists to use the bridge may be accomplished by offering thorough information, direction, and instruction on the trinary traffic system.
Objective Setting
Due to various strong arguments, the main objective of expanding the number of private cars using the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) is fundamental. The main reason for developing this target is to improve the HZMB’s general accessibility and connection. It guarantees that the bridge fulfils its function as an essential transportation link in the area by enticing more private cars to enter and exit the bridge. A productive and effective HZMB has enormous advantages for the area. The bridge is essential in promoting easy travel and trade between these important economic hubs by linking Hong Kong, Zhuhai, and Macao. To expand the economic links and promote regional development, it is crucial to act to make the HZMB easier to access, easy, and effective. Reducing congestion on nearby transit routes is also feasible by boosting the volume of private cars using the HZMB. The bridge offers commuters and travellers an alternate route, redirecting traffic from other congested roads and easing the burden on the currently available transportation infrastructure. In addition to improving the overall commute for drivers of private vehicles, this congestion reduction helps the environment by lowering carbon emissions and improving air quality.
Theoretical Framework
Two important models, the PML (1983) and NATO (1981), present a theoretical framework that delivers valuable insights for assessing the traffic use of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. The PML Triangle concept emphasizes how crucial it is to balance political, managerial, and legal considerations while formulating regulations about the bridge. On the contrary hand, the NATO scheme emphasizes modality’s purpose as a proactive control tool. These models share several characteristics while having different personalities, as Shan et al. (2023) pointed out.
The assessment of norms linked to operational openness, individual fundamental rights, and equality is one significant area where the PML Triangle and the NATO System diverge. These elements are considered by both the legal portion of the PML Triangle and the governing portion of the NATO Scheme, highlighting the necessity of a legislative framework that provides transparency, upholds individual rights, and fosters equality in the use of the bridge. This common goal emphasizes how important it is to create a legislative framework that protects the interests and freedoms of all parties involved in using the bridge for traffic. The NATO Scheme’s resource element and the management portion of the PML Triangle, which evaluates effectiveness, economy, and efficiency, find common ground. Both models acknowledge how critical it is to assess the management facets of the bridge’s activities, striving for maximum effectiveness, efficient use of resources, and cost-effectiveness. In light of the traffic usage of the bridge, this alignment stresses the necessity for solid management approaches that streamline operations, improve resource utilization, and guarantee economic sustainability.
Finally, the PML Triangle’s political component and the NATO Scheme’s organizational structure are complementary. The NATO Scheme considers several elements regarding how frequently the bridge is used, including accountability, political responsiveness, and accountability. The political component of the PML Triangle also highlights the need for political responsibility and representation in determining policies and decision-making procedures. The requirement for a framework that supports effective governance, sensitivity to stakeholder concerns, and responsibility in the administration of the bridge’s traffic use is highlighted by this convergence.
Policy alternatives (NATO & PML)
Increase the quota while maintaining the same standard
This option would keep the current qualifying conditions while limiting private vehicles travelling through the HZMB. This would eliminate the quota constraint and provide qualified candidates with more excellent options. The government would still determine the same admission threshold criterion, preferring the 1-dimensional criteria. However, this method could run into issues with substantive individual rights and procedural due process, affecting equity. The policy’s efficacy could rise, but its economy and efficiency might fall. The organizational capability must improve representation, political responsiveness, and accountability, particularly in the SARs.
Reduce the requirement while increasing quotas:
This solution entails decreasing the qualifying conditions and increasing quotas for private automobiles entering the HZMB. The criteria would gradually decrease to appeal to a larger pool of candidates and boost the Greater Bay Area (GBA) economy rather than only millionaires (Li et al., 2023). Although the government continues to prioritize one-dimensional criteria, this alternative strategy is more inclusive. Personal fundamental rights and equity may rise, and procedural courtesy may not be an issue. The policy’s efficacy might increase, but the economy and efficiency could suffer. Government organizational capability may have more time to react and make gradual adjustments, which might impact representativeness, responsiveness to politics, and accountability.
Increase the number of quotas by broadening the requirement:
This alternative proposes expanding the qualifying criteria to introduce quotas for private vehicles entering the HZMB. The government may consider a Talent Entry Permit for license plates, luring not just billionaires but also talented people. This alternative to the policy deals with issues of equality and societal demands. Along with equality, technical due process and individual substantive rights may develop. The policy’s efficacy might increase, but the economy and efficiency could suffer. Like the last option, this would provide the government’s organizational capability more time to react and make minor adjustments affecting representativeness, responsiveness to politics, and accountability.
Add transitory e-quotas
This option suggests the inclusion of interim e-quotas based on particular situations, such as awarding one-time visitors e-passes on public holidays or crises. This option gives more freedom, but creating equivalent rules for every situation may require more work for the government. Equality and individual substantive rights may rise despite the decline in procedural due process. Efficiency and the economy may suffer, and effectiveness may suffer as well. This administrative architecture necessitates departmental collaboration, which might complicate daily operations. Representativeness may rise, while political responsibility and responsiveness may fall.
Alternatives PML Triangle
The Political-Managerial-Legal (PML) Triangle may be used to analyze the policy options for the traffic use of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. Regarding management, if there is a surge in personal vehicles, Alternative 1 may lead to less efficiency. The situational e-quotas in Alternative 4 provide managerial and regulatory difficulties. Alternatives 2 and 3, which progressively assort the quota, can effectively solve political and management issues from a political perspective. Alternative 1 jeopardizes political accountability and responsiveness, while Alternative 4 might increase representativeness but still reduce political responsiveness. Alternative 1 may not ultimately uphold each individual’s substantive rights or make them worse by eliminating the quota. Alternative 4 may improve specific legal rights and fairness, but procedural due process must be followed in all cases.
Criteria Filtering for alternatives
Three factors are considered while assessing the choices to utilize the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) for traffic: administrative, political, and legal. Each criterion is evaluated in light of specific elements that impact the overall viability and efficacy of the alternatives. The management criteria heavily emphasized assessing each option’s efficacy, economy, and efficiency. Efficiency considers the best use of resources, the economy is concerned with the cost-effectiveness of implementation, and effectiveness relates to how effectively an option accomplishes its intended goals. These elements are essential for figuring out the alternatives’ feasibility and success.
The political criteria rate the choices’ political responsiveness, representativeness, and accountability. Political responsiveness gauges the extent to which the alternatives can address societal issues, while accountability looks at the systems in place to ensure accountable choice-making and implementation. Representativeness measures how effectively the alternatives consider the desires and requirements of various stakeholders. The legal standards cover equality concerns, preserving each person’s legal rights, and procedural due process. Protecting people’s legal rights guarantees that the alternatives adhere to and uphold fundamental rights, and procedural due process assesses the fairness and openness of the decision-making method. Equity assesses the allocation of the advantages and drawbacks to people and organizations impacted by the alternatives. The management criteria are given a weight of 40%, the political criteria of 35%, and the legal criteria of 25% when determining the weights for each criterion. These weightings consider the relevance of managerial performance, representation in politics, and legal justice in establishing the acceptability of the alternatives, and they indicate the relative value of each factor in the evaluation process.
Best Solution
After carefully weighing the various possibilities for using the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) for traffic, it becomes clear that Alternative 3, which suggests raising quotas by diversifying the need, is the best option. This strategy offers a more inclusive and all-encompassing viewpoint that may draw brilliant people and wealthy persons to contribute to the growth of the Greater Bay Area (GBA) (Zhao et al., 2023). During the factor filtering process, Alternative 1, which proposes raising the quota while keeping the same criteria, scored worse. The Special Administrative Regions (SARs), in particular, may have problems with bureaucracy and reactive reactions, as shown by the lower score. This strategy may not meet the numerous stakeholders’ unique wants and aspirations.
Alternative 2, on the contrary, provides a more extreme approach as it suggests increasing the quotas while lowering the requirements. It is constrained by the fact that it uses a one-dimensional gauge, which would prevent other strategies for improving traffic flow on the bridge from being explored. Alternative 4 presents a short-term approach to control the traffic flow by proposing the implementation of temporary e-quotas. It has the disadvantage of adding to costs and making it challenging to design appropriate regulations and rules for each unique circumstance. Due to its emphasis on expanding demand, Alternative 3 is the best choice. This strategy makes a system more inclusive and adaptable by broadening the need and broadening qualifying requirements. It promotes innovation and economic progress inside the GBA by enticing people with various talents and backgrounds to participate actively.
Policy Transfer
The execution of policies for the traffic usage of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) may benefit significantly from evidence-based research and lessons learned from the Johor-Singapore Causeway (JSC). Compared to the HZMB, the JSC, a connecting route between Malaysia and Singapore since November 1967, has seen more traffic. Lessons for maximizing the use of the HZMB may be learned by examining the past and current operations of the JSC. It is important to remember that the JSC’s construction cost seventeen million Chinese dollars per km in 1918 (Zhao et al., 2023). This data offers a baseline for assessing the investment necessary to build this transportation infrastructure.
The JSC displays various vehicles permitted to pass, including cars, buses, trucks, taxis, and goods. Researchers like Barter (2006) have emphasized a crucial policy aspect of the JSC and concerns the adoption of strict similar quotas for private vehicles not employed for commuting. In this arrangement, the allocation of quotas is governed by the geopolitical structure of the area, with private commuter cars often having a bigger quota. Those living, working, or owning enterprises in Malaysia or Singapore are given unique access based on their particular talent programs. These results are consistent with Option 3, which suggests raising quotas by raising the qualifying requirements. Policymakers may learn more about efficient quota distribution procedures by leveraging the JSC’s experiences while considering the unique dynamics and demands of the area. The HZMB’s traffic usage can be improved by implementing strict equivalent quotas and modifying eligibility requirements for various commuter and vehicle types. Additionally, considering the JSC’s previous building expenses might be a benchmark for estimating the investment necessary for the HZMB’s continued development and upkeep.
Alternative vs Trade-off
It becomes clear that winners and losers are connected with each choice when comparing the two possibilities for the traffic usage of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge—adding quotas by lowering the criteria. Understanding the ramifications of these alternatives requires careful consideration of the forecasts and trade-offs. In Option 1, the winners are the private car owners who would gain from more inclusivity, allowing more businesses to use the bridge. In addition to helping individual drivers, improved accessibility would benefit the government, HZMB managers, and the immediate economy. However, it is crucial to consider the issues brought up by Tung Chung residents from Hong Kong, as evidenced by the “Reclaim Tung Chung” incident on November 11, 2019. The local ecology might suffer, and the government may need to set aside funds to solve sociological reasons and parking concerns brought on by the increasing traffic congestion.
The winners in Option 2 are private vehicle owners with access to a more excellent selection of talent—long-term economic growth, and advantages for the government and HZMB operators. Environmental issues, such as those brought up through the “Reclaim Tung Chung” movement, will continue, much like Alternative 1. The government would have to raise money once more to deal with political movements and parking problems. Therefore, despite certain benefits for individual drivers and the state’s economic interests, both approaches provide trade-offs and possible issues for the ecosystem and the country. The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge must be used sustainably while considering the concerns and impacts on diverse stakeholders. This calls for a thorough review and the adoption of mitigation measures.
Policy Implementation
Top-down and bottom-up approaches can be used to execute the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge traffic management strategy. Each strategy uses several actors and procedures to create and carry out the policy. In the top-down approach, the executive agencies of Macao, Hong Kong, and China are where the policy is first established. These governments establish the laws, restrictions, and requirements for applicants requesting license plates for cars wishing to cross the bridge. Following the creation of the policy, interested applicants apply for license plates via the relevant agencies in their localities. After the governing bodies have approved the policy, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge security authorities play a significant role in enforcing and executing it.
On the other hand, the bottom-up approach takes a different approach. While a higher regulatory institute, which may be the main governing body, first approves the policy, it also maintains the authority to change or cancel it as needed. In this approach, intermediary governmental institutions considering numerous possibilities and alternatives are involved in the policy-creation process. Through promoting vox populi, or public opinion, demand groups, often working in conjunction with non-governmental organizations (NGOs), play a crucial role in implementing policies (Zhao et al., 2023). These organizations use social and media channels to raise awareness of pertinent topics, voice their concerns, and promote specific policy revisions or advances. Their goal is to affect how the policy is implemented by increasing public knowledge, sparking debate, and attempting to consider the opinions and preferences of the general population.
Policy Monitoring
Insights from futurists like Alvin Toffler and Sohail Inayatullah might help observe the policy for the traffic utilization of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. The interactive workshop methodology, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), created by Inayatullah, is one appropriate strategy that provides a productive way to monitor policy. Various stakeholders, such as private car owners, HZMB executives and directors, politicians from every field and level, and financial organizations, actively participate in this strategy. These stakeholders may gather together via the CLA workshop to analyze the consequences of the present policy as a whole, identify possible problems or obstacles, and recommend any required adjustments or changes. This participatory method enables thorough and knowledgeable policy monitoring by integrating various viewpoints. It allows for a more in-depth knowledge of the policy’s impact by allowing stakeholders to dive further into the underlying factors, principles, and worldviews that influence its consequences.
In addition, Alvin Toffler’s idea of “prosumers” is essential for long-term policy assessment for the HZMB’s traffic utilization. The word “prosumer” describes those who actively contribute to and engage in the system in addition to using transportation services. People can now actively participate in and affect the Greater Bay Area (GBA) expansion via their transportation choices thanks to the trinary traffic layout and a more lenient admittance policy. Policymakers should encourage a sense of responsibility and active participation among bridge users by acknowledging and embracing the prosumer role (Scanlon, 2023). As a result, authorities can better grasp how people’s mobility tastes and habits are changing and adjust their plans for infrastructure development to better meet the needs and ambitions of prosumers in the GBA.
Policy Evaluation
Using a thorough time series analysis approach, assessing the traffic use of Hong Kong, Zhuhai, and Macao Bridge and providing essential insights into current and long-term patterns is possible. Using this strategy, the evaluator may concentrate on numerous aspects to get a comprehensive picture of how the bridge is used. An assessment shortly (2023) may focus on analyzing the rise in the number of private cars driving via the HZMB. There is anticipated to be an increase in usage with the adoption of a new regulation that permits a free quota of private automobiles. As the idea of released quota remains relatively new, it is crucial to consider the potential influence on competitiveness among individuals looking to use the bridge. Understanding the immediate consequences of the policy adjustment will benefit from analysis of this early period of increased traffic. After the midterm period (2024), the assessment will be able to evaluate the continuous growth in the use of private vehicles while considering stakeholder input and more refined policy implementation. The efficacy of the regulation and its effects on traffic patterns will be clarified during this phase. The policy may be improved with the help of stakeholder comments and recommendations, which can also be used to resolve any problems or issues that could come up during this time.
The evaluation can see a prolonged period of more private vehicles travelling via the HZMB in the long run (2025). The expansion of the Greater Bay Area (GBA) and a change in how people view the advantages of using the HZMB for business and travel are two reasons that contribute to this increase. The evaluation might examine the connection between the use of the bridge and the economic development and integration of the areas it links. Understanding the long-term patterns and causes of the growing traffic will shed light on how the bridge contributes to connectivity and regional development. The review can also consider the long-term geopolitical objective of the HZMB, which is to promote closer ties across Mainland China and the Special Administrative Regions. This would include determining the degree to whereby the bridge encourages tighter ties and makes it simpler for these regions to integrate economically. The evaluation can shed light on the bridge’s contribution to attaining its strategic goals and the possibility for further growth and extension of its connection functions by considering the forecast for the future.
Conclusion
The traffic utilization of the HZMB remains an issue that requires consideration and action. While past measures have been executed, they still need to resolve the issue entirely, and new policy recommendations are essential to developing the traffic utilization of the bridge further. By executing the strategy recommendations proposed in this report, we accept that the traffic utilization of the HZMB can be improved, prompting a more economical and proficient utilization of this significant infrastructure project.
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