U.S.-Iran Relations in 2024–2026: Risks, Challenges, and Possibilities

The relations between the United States and Iran continue to deteriorate, centered on Iran’s nuclear program, its brutal repression of the peacefully protesting citizens, and its support of Russia’s war against Ukraine (Carnegie Endowment, 2023). The foreign relations between these two countries, with the backing from other United States allies, will be improved if the United States refines and shows commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that was started and destroyed by President Donald Trump’s administration.

Current United States’ relation with Iran

Under President Biden’s administration, hope exists for an improved foreign relationship with Iran. In talks with delegates from Iran, the President has been able to charter a period of de-escalation between Iran and the United States (Tam, n.d.). President Biden’s administration saw the implementation of a temporary foreign policy solution to the problematic foreign relations between the country and Iran. The temporary solution saw the release of five American hostages from Iran in exchange for five Iranian nationals and the unfreezing of approximately $6 billion of Iranian assets, which Tehran can now access and use only for food and humanitarian aid (Tam, n.d.). The new deal between the countries has opened the Iranian government for serious negotiations between the country and the United States. One of the policies tabled by President Biden’s administration is the re-entry of Iran and the United States into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to address the primary issue of concern between the two countries, which is the reversal of nuclear activities by Iran through their nuclear program (Hadar, 2023; Tam, n.d.). Also, the United States government seeks to employ the help of three powerful European countries, Britain, France, and Germany, in helping to repair the country’s foreign relations with Iran (Tam, n.d.). However, bringing these European powers back to the negotiation table would prove challenging, given the unannounced withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA in May 2018 by President Donald Trump’s administration (Hadar, 2023; Tam, n.d.). The allies of the United States felt betrayed; hence, it might prove challenging to trust the success of the negotiations for a second time.

Goals of the Proposed Foreign-Policy Course

1. To restore diplomatic relations with Iran and the three European allies to the United States.
2. To protect the United States’ foreign relationships with other countries in the Gulf, notably Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Competing Alternative Views and Policies

With the next presidential elections fast approaching, and the Congress and Gulf countries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia being opposed to the revival of JCPOA (Hadar, 2023; Tam, n.d.), the United States and Iran foreign relations remain fraught. The issue of reviving the JCPOA could easily be used against the Biden administration in the next presidential elections. The opposition could rephrase the United States-Iran agreement negatively to paint a horrific picture of President Biden’s administration in attempts to win favor with American citizens (Tam, n.d.). The ability to politicize the United States’-Iran agreements delays the progress that should have been made in reviving the JCPOA.

Secondly, the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and Israel, entered into a foreign policy agreement with the United States during President Trump’s administration (Hadar, 2023; Tam, n.d.). Each country received a blank check from President Donald Trump with no conditions despite disastrous wars fought in these countries or using these countries’ resources by the United States (Tam, n.d.). Therefore, President Biden attempts to revise these foreign policies with the Gulf countries and enter into a new agreement with Iran, which is a nuclear superpower in the region, threatens the sanity and stability of the area and the United States’ partnership with the other Gulf countries (Hadar, 2023). Therefore, the threats of broken foreign relations with other Gulf countries further curtail the progress made by the Biden administration in dealing with the foreign policy course with Iran.

Lastly, Congress is opposed to the revival of JCPOA. Any attempts by the President to revive JCPOA would lead to a Congressional review that would cause President Biden’s administration to lose favor with Congress and, hence, the country. The most significant bone of contention with JCPOA, which has Congress on edge, is that the agreement will further stretch an already overstretched United States’ resources to help Iran regain political stability (Tom, n.d.). Therefore, these pessimistic views, regional politics, and Congressional opposition provide competing views, policies, and party politics that prevent the revival and implementation of the JCPOA.

Specific Policy Steps for 2024-26

Continue the implementation of President Biden’s temporary solution to offer Iran a package deal. The temporary agreement saw Iran agreeing to limited but reversible steps to stop its nuclear program, such as a pause in the accumulation of enriched uranium and an agreement not to produce weapons-grade fissile material (Hadar, 2023).

Facilitate effective prisoner transfer between the two countries to build trust and achieve the first step towards positive diplomatic relations. Countries could use third-party countries like Saudi Arabia in the region to carry out prisoner transfers.

President Biden should bring all involved regional parties back to the negotiation table to refine JCPOA agreements. The involvement of the other Gulf countries in the JCPOA would ensure that the U.S.-Iran deal is transparent and protects the United States’ interests in foreign relations with the other Gulf countries.

The United States should convince the European 3, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom to revive JCPOA alongside the United States. The European countries could provide some of the resources needed to revitalize Iran into a politically stable nation. Also, they would help to reinforce the agreement to ensure that the United States is well-founded regarding continued nuclear activity under Iran’s nuclear program.

Finally, the United States should involve Congressional representatives on nuclear energy in revising and rewriting the JCPOA agreement clauses to ensure that the country’s interests and participation in the deal are protected. Also, the involvement of Congressional representatives helps reduce the politicization of foreign policy and party oppositions that currently prevent the development of better foreign policy and relations between Iran and the United States.

Expected Positive Outcomes

1. It improved foreign relations with Iran.
2. Protected and preserved United States diplomatic relations with the other Gulf countries, most notably Israel and Saudi Arabia.
3. Protection of the Gulf region and the country from the nuclear weapon threats by Iran.
4. Preserved United States resources consumed in constant war with Iran and in the revitalization of Iran with the help from the three European countries.

Possible Negative Consequences of reviving JCPOA

1. The United States, European countries, and the Gulf countries are getting shortchanged by Iran, which might continue to pursue its nuclear program, placing the rest of the world at risk of war.
2. Continued Congressional opposition could threaten national unity as President Biden’s administration loses favor with the United States’ citizens.

The international factor that remains under the United States’ control is Tehran’s behavior, which is radical and could quickly go against the new JCPOA agreement, leading to Gulf regional and global insecurity from continued Iran nuclear activities. Also, the increasing influence of China, a central United States competitor, in the region renders the stability of JCPOA questionable. The superpower’s opposition to JCPOA could influence other countries in the Gulf to lose trust in the United States, leading to catastrophic foreign policy failures with these countries and regional political instability as China and the United States propagate contradicting policies in the region. Lastly, the domestic factors that remain beyond the government’s control are the ill feelings held by some of the country’s citizens toward Iran. The United States citizens bear hatred and fear regarding Iran and its global terrorism endeavors. These feelings are common among citizens who have suffered loss of life attributed to Iranian attacks on and off the United States, which makes the citizens cautious about any deals with Iran. However, most citizens support the government’s sanctions on Iran, as depicted in the graph below.

Figure 1 American Support Sanctions on Iran (Sullivan & Smeltz, 2022)

Consequently, the government pushing for a JCPOA agreement with Iran would be taken in good faith by the majority of voters, leading to unwavering support for the governmental policy actions. Therefore, regardless of the immense national, regional, and international risks carried by JCPOA, an attempt to build lasting positive foreign relations with Iran is crucial for the United States’ sustainability in the region and globally.

Conclusion

Undoubtedly, the United States- Iran foreign policy course is fraught and full of unprecedented national, regional, and international risks. However, to effectively address the threats of Iran being a nuclear superpower in the Gulf, there is a need for consensus with the United States based on a refined JCPOA agreement between the two countries to help control and monitor Iran’s nuclear activity. Also, to help protect the country’s interest in the Gulf and foreign relations with other countries in the region, an inclusive JCPOA agreement is imperative. Therefore, to repair the relations between these two countries and with support from other United States allies, the United States government needs to refine and show commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The agreement will provide a safety net for the country to legally exercise control and monitor Iranian nuclear activity and protect the region and the world from the Iranian nuclear program. It should be remembered that a similar race to arms led to the eruption of the historical world wars. Therefore, any attempts to disarm countries from weapons of mass destruction are in good faith, especially if due process is followed to ensure preserved foreign relations with other countries in the region and with the central United States allies.

References

Carnegie Endowment (2023, September 28). Carnegie connects: The Biden administration and Iran: where is US policy headed? [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cpuaewkehg&t=48s

Hadar, L. (2023, August 25). Biden’s Middle East balancing act: Iran’s nuclear program and Saudi-Israel ties. Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/08/containing-irans-nuclear-program-while-normalizing-ties-between-israel-and-saudi-arabia/#:~:text=A%20new%20war%20in%20the,to%20restart%20negotiations%20with%20Tehran.

Sullivan, E., & Smeltz, D. (2022). Americans support sanctions on Iran. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/2022/americans-support-us-return-iran-nuclear-deal

Tam, P. E. (n.d.). What to expect from the Biden administration on Iran. German Marshall Fund. https://www.gmfus.org/news/what-expect-biden-administration-iran