With global democracy steadily declining, democratization in Arab countries seems highly unlikely. Since Arab countries have historically been under absolute and constitutional authoritarian regimes, one would have high hopes for change, especially in the contemporary world. However, there is little to no indication of any future positive changes to the situation. This argument is backed by the setbacks Arab countries face today on domestic, regional, and global fronts.
Domestically, Arab countries still face a myriad of challenges in achieving full democratization. One of these challenges is authoritarian regimes. The majority of Arab countries are still under monarchs who have been associated with oppression, corruption, and ineptitude. These monarchy regimes have led to the concentration of power in their families. As a result, the selection of officials in these countries has been based on limited elections. The individuals selected in government offices are largely selected on loyalty rather than merit. Thus, the power of the people is still very much suppressed in the Arab countries as a majority are still unable to choose their own leaders.
In addition to the authoritarian regimes, a large segment of the population in Arab countries has shown a reluctance to embrace democratic ideals. For instance, during the political protests in 2011, only three countries had mass protests, with others having scattered groups. Of the three that had mass protests, only Jordan and Bahrain had protesters demanding regime change. In countries such as Saudi Arabia, which is an absolute monarchy, there were no protests demanding the abolition of the authoritarian regime. In the end, only Jordan has been able to experience positive democratization changes in the form of electoral reforms ordered by King Abdullah.
There are certain factors that have contributed to the reluctance to embrace democratization ideals in the Arab region. One of these factors is the use of force. With the existence of the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.), authoritarian regimes in the Arab region have been able to counter any form of protest aimed at democratization. As Jordan and Bahrain were seeking regime changes during their 2011 mass protests, the latter resorted to the use of force to counter the protestors. The G.C.C. formed the Peninsula Shield in Bahrain as a counterrevolution strategy to stop the protests, which were deemed sectarian and a direct threat to the Saudi Monarchy. Saudi Arabia is also the other country in the region known to use force to stop any democratization protests.
Aside from the use of lethal force, the other strategy that authoritarian regimes have adopted to counter any democratization attempts is using infusions of cash. The wealthy monarchies, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are known to provide infusions of cash to support friendly leaders in Arab countries. In addition, during the 2011 protests around Arab countries, every Kuwaiti citizen was given a free food grant for one year and 1,000 dinars. Using monetary methods has been an approach embraced by authoritarian regimes to gain support and ensure that democratization protests are limited.
To a certain extent, the rise of pro-democracy mass protests around the globe has contributed to the slow progress of democratization in Arab countries. Countries such as Tunisia, which previously showed positive signs towards democracy, are now experiencing significant democratic recession. In addition to the growing acceptance of authoritarian regimes, the rise of illiberalism has led to democracy challenges in some Arab countries. The rise of illiberalism around the world comes with emerging democracies failing to fulfill the hopes of citizens’ economic growth, security, and freedom. With the social discontent growing in democratic countries around the world, more Arab countries cement their positions as authoritarian states (monarchies).
The conditions today favor authoritarian leaders more than a few years back when democracy was being embraced around the world. Countries such as America are now labelled as flawed democracies thanks to the shift in dynamics. In addition to these favorable conditions for authoritarian regimes, technological advancements are now working in their favor. Authoritarian regimes around the world can now employ technology to exert control on their citizens in ways that could never be achieved before. An example is the algorithm governance in China, which is used by the authoritarian regime to increase surveillance of the state (Mozur, 2018). They can also apply censoring technology to ensure that any mobilizations are foreseen and dealt with before turning into mass protests. These advancements, as well as the other mentioned factors, compound the reasons why democratization in Arab countries may not be within reach in the near future.
Reference
Mozur, P. (2018, July 8). Nytimes.com. Inside China’s Dystopian Dreams: A.I., Shame and Lots of Cameras. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/08/business/china-surveillance-technology.html
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