Executive Summary
An imbalance between surging demand and constrained supply has resulted in record property prices in Hong Kong’s housing market. The housing market is a major driver of economic development in the city. The government has passed laws to deal with the housing issue, and private advisors are essential to developing viable solutions. Key elements studied in this paper include demographic tendencies, income dynamics, financial concerns, government laws, and variables impacting housing supply. Rapid population growth and shifts affect housing choices, with the need for smaller apartments being driven by an older population. Income, a vital component, connects favorably with housing demand, especially in a high-cost area like Hong Kong. External finance and government restrictions profoundly influence housing dynamics, while supply-side variables such as land shortages and construction requirements provide difficulties. High mortgage rates, an excess of available homes, and a dearth of mainland purchasers are all contributing factors expected to bring the housing market down shortly. Increasing public rental housing, offering subsidized sale apartments, and stabilizing the market are the three pillars of the government’s strategy. Recommendations include expanding land supply, supporting affordable housing, and promoting sustainable development. The policy recommendations include transparency improvements, stamp duty changes, accelerated land development, and incentives for sustainable practices. It is hoped that the government will be better able to manage and sustain the housing market in Hong Kong using the information provided by this in-depth investigation.
Introduction
The property market in Hong Kong is one of the most competitive and costly in the world, with growing demand and a chronic shortage of available properties. This trend has driven real estate prices to all-time highs, highlighting the vital importance of the housing market to Hong Kong’s economy. The housing market’s success not only reflects financial trends but also greatly affects the city’s economic growth as a whole. The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) has enacted several measures and efforts to help alleviate the housing crisis, as the situation has become increasingly dire. Due to the dynamic nature of the housing market in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), the HKSAR Government relies heavily on outside consultants to evaluate and advise on developing new housing policies and programs. According to the Census and Statistics Department, the number of private residences in Hong Kong grew by 1.5% between 2011 and 2022. Concurrently, the average price of private residential homes witnessed a 2.8% upswing, hitting HKD 7.8 million in the same year. Insights from the Long-Term Housing Statistics show that the number of public rental units will increase by 0.6% to 780,000 in 2022 (Statista, 2023), while the number of Home Ownership Scheme apartments will climb by 0.2% to 770,000. This report seeks to equip the HKSAR Government with useful insights to navigate and address the challenges posed by the evolving housing landscape by comprehensively examining demographic trends, income dynamics, financing considerations, government regulations, and factors affecting the housing supply.
Analysis
Demography
Demographics and the study of population characteristics heavily influence demand for property in Hong Kong. Population growth, density, and demographic transitions all have a major impact on the number and composition of dwellings that are in demand, as stated by Lam and Yang (2020). The association between population growth and housing demand is particularly evident in Hong Kong’s setting. As stated by the Census and Statistics Department, the city’s population will skyrocket to 7.4 million in 2023 (Yiu, 2023). This increase has put pressure on the already scarce land and housing units, making the market more competitive and increasing prices. Housing choices are heavily influenced by demographic changes such as an aging population, changes in household size, and preferences for different living arrangements. Smaller, more manageable homes near services and healthcare facilities are in high demand as the population ages.
For example, a growing number of single-person homes increases the demand for efficiency flats and studios. Desires for open spaces, accessibility to green areas, and proximity to recreational amenities all have a role in determining where people choose to live (Lo et al., 2022). Income, population, and housing costs are all determinants in the neoclassical theory of housing demand. Rapid population expansion in Hong Kong is consistent with rising demand for homes and, therefore, higher pricing. According to the life cycle hypothesis of housing demand, people’s housing choices change as they go through different stages of life. Smaller, more manageable apartments are becoming increasingly popular as Hong Kong’s elderly population drives up demand for this accommodation type. The rising trend of two-parent households necessitates dwellings that can comfortably accommodate parents and their children during the day.
Income
According to the fundamental concept of economic demand, a person’s ability and desire to buy goods and services, such as a home, rises in tandem with their income. This correlation is especially strong in Hong Kong because of the city’s prohibitive housing costs. In this respect, Engel’s Law is instructive; it states that a growing middle class spends less money on food and more on non-food commodities like housing. Wang et al. (2023) found that there was a positive correlation between household income and the size and value of housing units sought in Hong Kong. In addition, Milton Friedman proposed the Permanent Income Hypothesis, which states that people’s spending decisions are affected by both their present income and their expectations for future income. In Hong Kong, where economic growth has been solid over the last few decades, rising household incomes and consumer confidence may boost home demand.
Housing demand is directly tied to household income, which is, in turn, affected by the status of the economy. As the economy improves and more people find stable jobs, household incomes grow, and discretionary spending increases. Because of this, there is a greater demand for housing in Hong Kong. The Keynesian theory of consumption places considerable emphasis on this connection, arguing that in a thriving economy, higher incomes lead to higher aggregate demand, increasing demand for housing. In times of economic distress, however, the reverse effect might be found (Wong et al., 2022). This was the case during the Asian Financial Crisis and the current worldwide economic repercussions of the COVID-19 epidemic. Reduced economic activity and increased unemployment can lead to lower household earnings, lowering the capacity of individuals and families to purchase housing. The economy and housing market in Hong Kong are especially vulnerable to global economic developments because of the city’s heavy dependence on global financial markets and international commerce.
Furthermore, the economic idea of housing as a ‘normal good’ is relevant to this conversation. A normal good is one for which demand grows as income increases. In Hong Kong’s context, this link is clear since increasing income levels often enhance the demand for better quality or larger homes. It’s also possible that demand for cheaper, smaller housing alternatives might rise during economic downturns as individuals reduce their living arrangements to make do with less money.
Finance
External funding, notably through mortgages, is a major aspect of property transactions in Hong Kong, where the value of an investment is independent of its financing. The housing market is very sensitive to the availability and conditions of mortgage loans, which are heavily influenced by banks and other financial organizations. Easier access to external finance can increase housing demand since more individuals can afford to borrow money to buy property (Wong & Chan, 2019). However, tighter lending standards or reduced lending might have the opposite effect and diminish demand. The interest rate and credit market conditions may directly affect housing demand in Hong Kong. The demand for homes rises when interest rates fall because borrowers can now afford larger mortgages. Since interest rate decisions made by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority directly impact housing demand, the Keynesian economic theory may be used here.
Similarly important is the availability of credit, which is, in turn, affected by banking rules and the state of the financial system. Hazarika and Zhang (2019) argue that housing demand rises when banks loosen their lending standards and make mortgages more accessible to would-be homeowners. When housing demand falls, it’s usually because the economy is slump or banks have tightened their lending criteria in response to rising risks or regulatory requirements.
Government Regulations
According to the notion of market intervention, government restrictions like the Special Stamp Duty influence the housing market. According to this school of thought, governments may stabilize economies by intervening to fix market flaws via policies and regulations. For instance, the Special Stamp Duty discourages speculative real estate investments, which can contribute to artificial inflation in house prices. According to Wong (2015), the policy is to stabilize the housing market and make it more accessible for legitimate purchasers rather than speculators by imposing additional fees on the speedy selling of houses. In addition, the supply and demand equilibrium theory can benefit discussions of government restrictions. Zoning regulations, construction requirements, and property taxes are all examples of policies that impact the housing supply side. For instance, strict zoning regulations might restrict the amount of land used for construction, lowering the available supply of homes and driving up costs. Conversely, incentives for developers can boost supply, thereby cutting costs and increasing affordability. Therefore, the dynamics of the housing market are heavily influenced by government rules that affect supply and demand.
Factors Affecting Housing Supply
Supply of “Factors of Production”
Products cannot be made without the primary inputs known as “factors of production.” Land, people, money, and gadgets all play important roles in building homes. Building requires several different resources: land for the actual structure, labor for the actual building, cash for the actual finances, and technology to increase productivity. Land shortage is a major factor limiting the number of available dwellings in Hong Kong (Leung et al., 2019). The housing market is hampered because only around 14% of the total land area is suitable for residential construction. Green belt laws and residential land use limits are two examples of government measures contributing to this shortage. Because of its steep terrain, land development in Hong Kong is more difficult than in flat areas. Commercial, industrial, and recreational purposes all have a stake in available land, increasing competition. According to the Lands Department of the Hong Kong Government, the median property price is more than 20 times the typical household income due to the scarcity of land. In addition, land scarcity has resulted in smaller housing units, such as the average size of a new apartment being only 260 square feet.
To make sense of the complex dynamics in the housing market, one might go to the Neoclassical production theory. This hypothesis proposes that the cost of construction materials and labor directly affects the number of homes that may be built at any given time. Jayantha and Oladinrin (2019) state that the land shortage in Hong Kong directly affects the price of land, which in turn affects the cost of building homes there. This is consistent with the law of supply and demand, which states that a combination of low supply and strong demand for land causes increased land prices. The Ricardian theory of rent further supports this story by describing how the scarcity of land leads to greater rent payments. The theory sheds light on the macroeconomic processes that contribute to Hong Kong’s exorbitant housing costs and highlights the complex interplay between land scarcity and the availability of dwellings in the city.
Government Legislations
The Buildings Ordinance is a cornerstone of Hong Kong law that regulates building construction to ensure the public’s safety, prevent fires, and safeguard the environment. This landmark law is critical in determining building prices and the availability of new homes in the area. As indicated by Zheng et al. (2018), the legislation mandates strict restrictions on developers, including the use of high-quality materials and experienced labor, to ensure compliance with the most recent construction rules and standards. Developers incur more financial strain in their pursuit to build to the stringent requirements imposed by the regulation. In addition, the Buildings Ordinance requires that buildings be built in a way that makes them resilient to earthquakes and typhoons, increasing the difficulty and expense of any building project. The Buildings Ordinance has a sizable effect on the availability of dwellings (Cheng, 2019). The approval procedure stipulated by the code, stating that all new structures must seek clearance from the structures Department before construction starts, causes delays and complexity. Construction delays caused by complicated compliance and regulatory processes reduce the supply of new buildings available to consumers. While this regulatory system is necessary for guaranteeing safety and quality, it also creates obstacles for Hong Kong developers trying to keep up with the city’s burgeoning housing demand.
Safety, health, and environmental requirements, key components of the regulatory landscape, influence property selling prices in Hong Kong. Buyers are more likely to be interested in a property that complies with these criteria because they know it will provide a safe and ecologically responsible place to live. Homes that meet or surpass these requirements says Pettinger (2021), typically sell for a premium, demonstrating purchasers’ rising knowledge of and preference for sustainable and healthy dwellings. For instance, there has been a rise in interest in carbon-neutral, ecologically friendly real estate. Even though conforming to these criteria boosts a property’s marketability, it also presents difficulties for builders. Adding eco-friendly elements and meeting demanding health and safety standards will always increase building expenses. Developers face a precarious balancing act as they attempt to meet the rising demand for eco-friendly housing without breaking the bank doing so.
Policy and Economic Risks
Developers’ investment decisions, tactics, and risk assessments are heavily influenced by Hong Kong’s ever-changing policies and economic situations. As per the Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s report, the solid economic development, indicated by a 1.5% year-on-year rise in GDP in the second quarter of 2023, adds to a positive investment climate (Yeung, 2023). Maintaining low wages, stimulating economic progress, and attracting foreign direct investments depend on the government’s skillful administration of public housing and effective public transit systems. The theoretical foundation of this relationship resides in the positive association between GDP growth rates and developers’ likelihood of investing. A rising GDP indicates a thriving economy, and rising real estate demand follows naturally. The investment climate has improved due to falling inflation and unemployment rates, which has enticed more builders to enter the market. As stated by Tang et al. (2020), government interference and regulatory changes pose significant difficulties for developers. While government policy is intended to promote prosperity and stability, uncertainty can be introduced by rapid changes in rules. The government’s position on land use, zoning, and housing significantly influences the policies that affect developers. The cost of development and the total demand for housing units are affected by stringent restrictions and a lack of available land. Uncertainties in Hong Kong’s political stability, particularly in its relationship with mainland China, might affect investor confidence and developers’ risk assessments.
The prosperity of Hong Kong is highly dependent on the state of the international economy and, hence, is vulnerable to recessions and expansions. A drop in the demand for new property investments during economic downturns may negatively impact developers’ income and profitability. The integration of global financial markets increases the risks developers face due to market volatility. The cost of funding projects and the allure of real estate investments are susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates, currency exchange rates, and general market mood. The instability of interest rates adds to the economic precarity (Goodstadt, 2019). Developers’ borrowing costs and total profitability are very sensitive to changes in interest rates. Increasing interest rates can make it more expensive to fund new projects, which can reduce their financial viability. Conversely, declining interest rates may lessen the appeal of real estate investments relative to alternative asset classes, impacting developers’ strategic decisions in a dynamic economic landscape.
Price of “Factors of Production”
The cost of production elements such as land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship heavily influences housing supply dynamics in Hong Kong. High land prices and a lack of available land make it difficult to build new homes for the general public. This has a negative impact on housing affordability. The importance of labor as a production element cannot be overstated. According to Ouyang et al. (2022), a scarcity, especially of trained construction workers, increases production costs, introduces project delays, and eventually restricts the supply of new housing units. Capital availability and its cost considerably impact the feasibility of housing developments, defining affordability and developers’ desire to start new initiatives. The creative housing solutions resulting from entrepreneurial efforts help alleviate the housing crisis and lower prices. The Legislative Council Secretariat has reported that Hong Kong has a significant land supply shortfall that exceeds the government’s initial estimate by more than 1,200 hectares. The dearth of land supply for large residential buildings will persist throughout the next two to three years1. About 7,000 additional dwelling units are expected to be needed beyond what can be provided on the available land in 2021 and 2022. Over the next decade, 301,000 public housing units will be needed (Policyaddress, 2022).
The lack of trained construction workers in Hong Kong has serious consequences for both manufacturing prices and the availability of new homes. Developers must shoulder higher production costs due to rising wages and the building sector’s shortage of competent personnel. These added expenses are typically passed on to purchasers, increasing the burden of high housing costs. According to Garcês et al. (2022), the scarcity also causes delays in building projects as developers struggle to obtain qualified labor, making it harder to bring new units to market when needed. Adding more variable input, like labor, to a fixed input, like land, diminishes marginal production, according to the Law of Diminishing Returns. This means that the cost of house production rises when more people are hired to build on the same land because labor’s marginal productivity falls as more people are added to the workforce. An essential idea in economics, opportunity cost emphasizes the value of choices not taken. The decision to allocate land for housing in Hong Kong must be assessed against the advantages of using that property for other purposes, such as commercial or industrial development.
Future Trends
Several shifts in Hong Kong’s housing market are predicted for the near future. The South China Morning Post predicts that 2024 the Hong Kong real estate market will be flooded by megamansions and micro flats. According to the survey, New Territories and Kowloon are expected to have a smaller pricing differential in the future. In addition, builders are adding business centers to amenities to help clients work from home. However, difficulties are predicted for Hong Kong’s real estate market 2024. JLL found that the residential property price index in Hong Kong dropped by 8.95% from May 2022 to May 2023, which was significantly higher than the 2.13% drop seen the previous year. The survey also forecasts that Hong Kong’s new residential property sales may grow 15% next year as purchasers continue their desire in every market category (Li, 2023).
Nonetheless, borrowing rates, fresh supply, and a shortage of mainland purchasers contribute to a further decrease in Hong Kong housing prices. By 20283, the residential real estate market in Hong Kong is projected to develop at a CAGR of 0.81 percent, reaching a value of US$4.04 trillion. It is anticipated that China will be the primary source of wealth creation.
Recommendations
The property market in Hong Kong is expected to continue declining in 2023 for various reasons, and this bodes poorly for the city’s economic outlook. According to the chairman of JLL Hong Kong, the market has been adjusting for “the longest since 2008” because of high mortgage rates, an excess of new apartments, and a lack of purchasers from the mainland. Compared to May of the previous year, the loss in the home price index was even more dramatic, at 8.95% (Delmendo, 2023). Over 40,000 additional apartments will flood the market and severely weaken it. The government has taken a three-pronged strategy to address the demand/supply gap in the housing market. The program aims to maximize the use of already available public rental housing (PRH) units. Second, the focus is on providing more subsidized sale flats (SSFs), broadening subsidized homeownership alternatives, and easing the circulation of existing stock. Third, the government seeks to stabilize the residential property market through constant land supply, suitable demand-side control measures, and promotion of acceptable sales and tenancy practices.
Both government measures and specific proposals can address housing market imbalances. It is critical to increase the availability of land by measures including increasing the amount of land available for development, renovating abandoned structures, and loosening limits on how property may be used. Another important step is to provide incentives for building affordable housing, such as tax breaks, subsidies, and other forms of financial support for developers (Garcês et al., 2022). Housing affordability is improved over the long run when sustainable development is encouraged through the provision of financial incentives for constructing environmentally friendly buildings and using renewable energy sources. These steps and government initiatives are designed to make the Hong Kong housing market more stable in the long run.
Policy Suggestions
Targeted policy measures that address the present difficulties are necessary to improve the housing market stability in Hong Kong. To begin, the government should consider making the real estate market more open and transparent. One way to accomplish this goal is to make data on home sales, cost changes, and market conditions more widely available and detailed. According to Cui and Chung (2022), increased openness can increase trust among consumers and investors, reducing market volatility. Second, the government may look at changing stamp charges to align more with market realities. For instance, if the market dynamics change, it may be necessary to reevaluate and modify the Special Stamp Duty policy to regulate speculative activity effectively and stabilize property values. A stable housing market must balance discouraging speculative behavior and preserving a steady transaction flow. Housing shortages can be mitigated if the government speeds up land development and reduces red tape. Redeveloping abandoned structures, finding new uses for underutilized land, and loosening up on land use regulations are all ways to increase the available land and help restore equilibrium to the market. Providing financial incentives to private developers who take part in affordable housing projects may also encourage the development of dwellings that are accessible to a wider range of people. Promoting sustainable development in Hong Kong’s housing industry demands a diverse strategy (Adewunmi et al., 2023). The government should consider establishing green building certificates and offering financial incentives to builders using sustainable methods. Tax incentives or subsidies for developing energy-efficient buildings can encourage developers to embrace sustainable technology. Long-term sustainability and lessening the housing sector’s environmental effect may be achieved, in part, through using renewable energy sources in construction and promoting eco-friendly design.
Conclusion
The ongoing gap between housing demand and supply in Hong Kong is a major obstacle for the city’s housing industry. The government’s plan includes increasing public rental housing, offering subsidized sale apartments, and stabilizing the market. High mortgage rates, an excess of new apartments, and a dearth of purchasers from the mainland are expected to bring the market down in 2023. The intricate interaction of population trends, income dynamics, financial concerns, government laws, and variables impacting the housing supply further complicates the problem. Housing demand is very sensitive to demographic shifts, household formations, and preferences in living arrangements. The demand for homes in Hong Kong’s expensive housing market positively correlates with income. The housing market dynamics are complicated due to financing, government regulations, and factors impacting home supply (such as land shortages and legal frameworks). The government’s three-pronged approach and tailored suggestions present a complete strategy to stabilize the housing market. Important legislative recommendations to stabilize the housing market include improving transparency, reducing stamp duties, speeding up land development, and encouraging sustainable building.
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