Article Summary: The Real Value of China’s Stock Market

Brief Summary of the Article

The summary below is based on the value of the stock market in China as derived from the journal of financial economics 2021. The main question addressed in the abstract is the role of China’s capital allocation play in the stock markets. In most economic giants and investments, stock market prices determine the future profits as explicated in the USA; rising stock price informativeness leads to investment efficiency among privately owned firms (Marcin, 2020). The abstract also relates the success of privately held firms against state-owned enterprises in terms of profit-making.

The introduction introduces the reader to the main agenda and the main economic terminologies to be used in the entire article. The article will be evolving around terms like capital allocation, price information, market integration, and global investment. The introduction also mentions a bit of the GDP development of China in the past ten years. This development has made China the world’s largest investors with $5.9 trillion higher than the USA investment capital of $4.2 trillion and Japan $1.2 trillion. The reason for this growth of capital investment is due to its government held banking industry as the main apparatus of the middle policies of investment.

The A-shares in the local stock market in China have developed highly since the 90s though the banking sector stagnates it. China stock market is highly occupied by medium investors and subjected to often inventions and worthwhile restrictions on exchangeable shares, thus making it to be used as a side experiment. Due to this experimental aspect, the researchers and journalists find it difficult to relate China’s financial investment sector and gross domestic product. The regulators have also reflected low confidence in the market due to recurrent sector inventions, trading standstills, as well as IPO suspension. Despite efforts to incorporate external ventures, the overseas investment of A-shares is at 3%. In 2019 China had over 3700 firms with over $8trillion in market capitalization, making China a focus of international investment and regulations.

Therefore, the article is out rightly prepared to expose the capabilities of China’s shares market as an investment provision, channeled by examining the running of this sector in view of the price information, efficiency of investment, and the cost of equity capital. The methodology to determine these three main financial concerns will be the Bai et al. (2016) model. The article is divided into three; the share cost informativeness, allocation efficacy cost of capital within China, and finally, a conclusion of the same. The summary will also be used to gauge whether the knowledge attained from the article can answer the questions related to finance.

Stock price Informativeness and Allocation Efficiency

Legalized market institutions are highly related to the stock price market informativeness in relation to future gains, as well as extend to the volatility of resource distribution and commercial venture. This institution contains a few elements: effective listing, disclosure, auditing policy, accumulation of wordy data across persons, motivations to create data as well as its knowledge from prices, administrative use of cost indicators in distribution of resources, as well as investment choices.

Bond et al. (2012) distinguish between two forms of price volatility; the first is Forecasting Price Efficiency (FPE) and Revelatory Price Efficiency (RPE). He further highlights two areas that cost informativeness has actual impacts. These are; motivation constricting areas that affect executives’ incentives to work competently, as well as the knowledge network that influences administrators’ capacity to act professionally.

Bai et al. (2016) developed a system whereby share cost informativeness encourages effective placement of company investment as well as financial development. Bai et al. (2016) describe cost informativeness as the procession to which sector determination differentiates companies that will have profit from those with losses. Realistically they range value informativeness within a particular period (t) as the hypothesized difference of gain from costs, B_t*Q_t(M/A) within the subsequent profit regression (K- years) prior to the present equity marketplace price and present gain familiarized by asset book value.

Mock et al. (2000) introduce a new stand of methodology that utilizes R² as of a sector incentive as well as additional controls of strict value amalgamation as an opposite measure of the degrees of share-specific data in costs. Most researchers rejected this formula and adopted the Bai et al. (2016) methodology.

According to Bai et al. (2016), as costs adapt more informativeness, they must forecast venture extra heavily. Thus, managers should choose investments to maximize profit. Hence managers acquire inference from profit, i.e., if the balance exposes RPE, prices attain more informativeness of future profits, and therefore the efficiency of financial placement should go upward. To understand the efficiency of economic standing, one needs to determine the extent to which organizations with more significant investments keep having greater returns by observing the hypothesized disparity of returns from investments B_T *Q_T (I/A).

The most outstanding aspect of China’s commercial industry is their system of leadership grouped from entirely solely owned companies that maximize profits and the SOEs that chase other objectives, i.e., capitalize on employment, gross domestic product, or state’s strategic value. Some economists blame the state for the underperformance of the SOE. Lin et al. (1998) retort that national possession deteriorates the pay-performance work for key executives. Chen et al. (2015) say that managerial promotions are dependent on profitability, avoiding layoffs rather than profitability. Harrison et al. (2019) contribute that denationalized SOEs remain to enjoy low-interest credits as well as state given subventions compared to entirely privately owned firms. Thus, we can conclude that informativeness is an aspect of the fractions of government owned enterprises as well as performs a sub-sample analysis for the privately held firms and the SOEs. In order to understand better the concept of price informativeness, this section is divided into three: profits, investments, and capital allocation.

Stock price Informativeness about future profit

In order to attain the correct statistics of the future price, the method of Bai et al. (2016) is used. The data used to analyze this future price prediction was within (1995-2016). This data is attained by first estimating the regression in (1995-2016) and comparing it with the USA’s results from the same years.

The focus period will be the first five years for both USA and China. A table is prepared to sample the findings, and a significant difference is seen between the third and fifth years between the two countries. In these two periods, the USA price informativeness seems to be higher than that in China, though overall, both countries’ price informativeness increase as the years’ increase. In 2000 China attained the casino economy theory of the stock market when they had low price informativeness. Still, in the following years, China rose, and in 2004 their price informativeness became higher than those in America by 10% (Paul, 2021). In order to understand further this rise of price informativeness, the article divides the work into four different areas to cover the future profits on stock price informativeness.

• Robustness checks

The analysis results show two related concerns, that is, composition effects over time. This does not affect the price informative measures because no evidence shows whether the doubling of firms affects either earnings or price informativeness. The second robust check is that formal structures personal to China’s shares market affect the outcomes and interfere with the hermeneutics of the controls of the price informativeness.

There are features related to the China stock movement that make them robust checks. The first is that the outlining procedure is highly regulated by the CSRC, limiting firms that want to go public. The second is the availability of exceptional treatment firms, which are companies under threat of delisting because of low revenues.

• Historical context

The early years of 1995 in China was a year of structure as well as movement to a unified contemporary market. Jones, in 1996, initiated the publishing of the Shenzhen and China Shanghai indices. This lured a large interested party by equity experts, synchronized border order records, concentrated trading directives, and improved liquidity. According to Chordia et al. (2008), increased liquidity aggregates market efficiency and informativeness. In 1997 the CSRC was made the official controller of China’s stock market. In 1998-2002 China experienced low price informativeness since it was a season of widespread speculations, bookkeeping frauds, and manipulation of shares costs.

In 2001 the CSRC brought tight delisting guidelines to caution retail investors’ interest. The CSRC, in 2002, rectified the OFII program, allowing skilled foreign established stockholders to directly capitalize in the A-shares market. In 2004, they came up with nine national guidelines to safeguard smaller shareholders’ interest, prevent stock price manipulation, and reduce accounting and audit fraud.

In 2005 the CSRC established the splint share structure improvement to open non-tradable stocks and denationalize them via a firm-by-firm negotiations procedure that paid back holders of retailed stocks. In 2006 the Shanghai and the Shenzhen stock exchange established a margin trading and short selling pilot program, which spread gradually in the following years. From 2007 onwards, there were an economic crisis and immediate reconstruction during which price informativeness declined.

• Privately owned firms versus the SOEs

Share cost informativeness of imminent returns is less in SOEs as compared to solely owned companies due to national supplements making it challenging to determine, particularly next on the post-crisis financial inducement program. To assess this prediction, they averaged a prolonged form that comprises the collaboration of the share price regression; Log (M/A) with the government-held portion of equity, X, and this collaboration was accepted to develop in the dual sub-periods of (1995-2008) as well as (2009-2016).

In the first sub-period, that is (1995-2008), there is little or no difference between the state-owned firms and the privately-owned companies, after the crisis in 2009 where the state-owned firms attained subsidies and funding worth 4 trillion Yuan. The state-owned firms became economical, statistical and had less price informativeness in the following period.

• Dual listing QFII ownership and stock price informativeness

This segment determines two supplementary traits that may expound on cross-section variations in cost informativeness. The first is if the organization has an identical H share with the same financial flow as well as voting abilities in a twin listing within Hong Kong. The second is the degree of overseas proprietorship within the QFII program.

Stock price informativeness about future investments

According to Bai et al. (2016), as costs develop into more revealing regarding forthcoming returns, the likely worth of cost informativeness for actual-time choices must be more obvious in the receptiveness to venture in sector price. The development of cost informativeness with regards to future speculation must adhere to the price informativeness of future profits, but SOEs have other objectives despite gains; thus, cost informativeness regarding future gains as well as investments is not strong.

Efficiency and capital allocation

Here the article considers whether an rise in share cost informativeness from 2001 relates to a rise in FPE or RPE. In relation to Bai et al. (2016), the essential requirement for a rise in RPE is a surge in the effectiveness of financial placement, as determined through variations of profits. The efficiency of financial standing is lesser at companies with higher government possession, specifically during the after-crisis stimulus in the 2009-2016 sub-periods.

Cost of capital

This is an additional approach in which the share market capability influences the actual investment choices of executives. A considerable summary control of the price of equity investment within a specific market is the value-weighted average predictable profit across shares in surplus of the zero-risk proportion, referred to as equity premium. There are two ways of viewing equity premium in China. The first is the notion of local investors that control the entire Chinese share market currently. The second is the notion of USD investors in the outcasts of China that are in view of growing their interest weight within the country.

China shares market provides international investors the chance for differentiation and achieving higher average profits. China also has a lot to attain from reducing external as well as internal hurdles to its shares market and fastening improvements that could lure external investment.

Conclusion

The second-largest stock market in the world is China. China’s shares costs have emerged as revealing regarding firm future gains as of that within USA. The increase in share cost informativeness from 2000 has led to a rise in corporate investment efficacy amongst private organizations. Therefore. we can conclude that China’s banking sector that controls financial subsidies and policies is behind the success in the price informativeness in China. Also, China’s economic growth depends on its private-owned firms that influence the price informativeness to maximize profits and investments. Therefore China as a nation using its banking policy can still make an impact in the wider global stock market.

Part two: Questions related to the article

1. To which topics lectures are the article closely related to? Lecture 4 topic is Capital Assessment Pricing Model (CAPM)and Arbitrage Pricing Theory(APT)
2. Does the article help to improve your understanding of the relevant topics in AF5344? Yes, the article gives a proper insight into price informativeness that is facilitated by profits and investment that go hand in hand with capital allocation in firms. The report also provides the implication of post-crisis stimulus to SOEs towards price informativeness and stock marketing pricing, and the GDP.
3. If you become a junior financial analyst in a major asset management company, does the article help you build a successful career in financial history? Yes. The article provides evidence-based on China’s financial report growth since 1995- 2016. The history of their development is not smooth. Still, with proper policies, restrictions from the CSRC, and the subsidies towards the SOEs in order to avoid laying off have extensively built the country’s economy thus; in making a successful career, one must consider all sectors, not just profits, and direct investments but also future profits and investments.
4. If you plan to start your own company to offer investment management services to high net worth individual investors in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area, does the article help you succeed? Yes. The report has clearly stipulated and explained the dual system in Hong Kong that so far has 100 registered firms. Having understood the dual-process, it’s straightforward to give investment advice to big firms, as mentioned.

References

Marcin, K. J. (2020). Market Power and Informativeness. Jaromirnosal.net, 1-55. https://www.jaromirnosal.net/uploads/6/0/7/5/60756213/kns_october2020.pdf Accessed on 15th December 2021

Paul, H. E.-Y. (2021). China Overtakes US as World’s Leading Destination for Foreign Direct Investment. The Wall Street Journal, 1-6. https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-overtakes-u-s-as-worlds-leading-destination-for-foreign-direct-investment-11611511200 Accessed on 15th December 2021