The article by Caves & Carus (2021) on the future of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) provides an overview of the anticipated changes in the wake of geopolitical and technological trends. The text presents us with the possible dangers of weapons of mass destruction around our globe, such as nuclear, chemical, and biological, as they are poised to form a human race apocalypse. The article analyzes essential trends since 2014: new great powers’ input, the pressure on classical arms control and proliferation norms, an increase in the number of applied US sanctions, the emergence of new vehicles for WMD delivery, and the rise in relevance of emerging technologies. The paper is divided into parts to discuss the alteration of power dynamics, nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons regimes, financial sanctions, new carrier systems, and upcoming technologies like artificial intelligence and biotechnology. The authors examine the possibilities of closing off the INF Treaty, hypersonic missiles, nuclear weapon-powered delivery systems, unmanned platforms, sensors lying far from the eyes of man, and different advanced delivery methods. Additionally, I review this article by shedding new insights on the elements that I agree or disagree with, why I like or dislike the article, what I feel might be omitted in the text, and explain why it would improve the article if added.
Part 1: Summary of the Articles Chapters
Shifting Roles at the Top
The traditional non-competitors and some states, as a possible outcome of the post-World War atomic relationship transition period, increased their interest in weapons of mass destruction (WMD) for protection. This Chinese assertiveness and arrogance in economic and foreign policies, in which Xi Jinping plays a central role and is gaining momentum within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, change the distribution of power in the world, intending to dominate technology and get greater power. Additionally, it is Russia and President Vladimir Putin, who is leading the country, that sabotages the world order through its active military involvement and development of more advanced nuclear capabilities, which has been noticed recently in the Ukraine and Syria wars.
The essence of US foreign policy changes, especially under the Trump regime, is to weaken nonproliferation treaties and alliances. This phenomenon makes countries look for independent security means, and WMDs become one of the means. This international arrangement is alive as it depends on the relationship between the US retreat and its leadership, a key factor affecting destructive industries and arms. As per Caves & Carus (2021), ” If the United States steps away from its leadership of the Western group of nations and its other security partners at the same time that China and Russia are asserting their power,58 then the proliferation and use of WMD may become significantly less constrained in the new order that emerges—and sooner than anticipated in the 2014 paper.” (p. 15)
Regimes Under Pressure: Nuclear
Since 2014, nuclear arms control, besides nonproliferation initiatives, has weakened, hindering the mitigation of potential threats of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). Prominent withdrawals of powerful nations, such as the US and Russia, from treaties like INF and Open Skies left the New START as the only binding agreement for the existing member states. Caves & Carus (2021) stipulates that “The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty77 is the last standing pillar of U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control,78 and it will expire in February 2021 unless both the United States and Russia exercise the option to extend it for up to five years”, (P. 17). US for its part proposes to have the trilateral disarmament treaty with Russia and China on their arms stockpiles’ expansion. The emergence of China as a global power, which coincides with the rapid pace of technological change, weakens the arms control regime, and the nuclear and non-nuclear powers become interchangeable.
Ultimately, failing to do so will likely lead to increased conflict risks and the wasting of resources needed for peacekeeping solutions to other pursuits.
The Iran, North Korea, and South Asia countries that spread nuclear proliferation caused panic and worry among security experts. The difficulties in implementing nonproliferation treaties are still an issue as technology advances, consequently with the development of AI. The prospect of the nuclear-armed external states, which are already in the league of countries such as Iran, leads to the augmenting of the chances of risks, especially considering the India-Pakistan rivalry. To effectively prevent open access to WMDs by terrorists, international nonproliferation should adopt technological advancements.
Regimes Under Pressure: Chemical and Biological Weapons
The recent past was marked by a Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) allowing the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian and Russian regimes. While considerable work has been done to bring violators to justice, unfortunately, we have not seen any major accomplishments; Syria and Russia have had no strong weapons to use against them. Chemical weapons were among the most used in warfare, predominantly by the Assad regime side, changing the tactics and policies of the international community. These exemplify the struggle of sourcing and the possibilities of clandestine chemical weapons use in gray zone wars in which the states want to conceal the use of military force without provoking the open war to break the warhead.
The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) has never confronted any visible attacks like those of the Convention for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (CWC). The efforts of respective states to be compliant and not use biological weapons by countries like North Korea bring forth more concerns. The bioterrorism issue is additionally taken into account considering the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Caves & Carus (2021), a former counterterrorism official notes, “The severity and extreme disruption of a novel coronavirus will likely spur the imagination of the most creative and dangerous groups and individuals to reconsider bio-terrorist attacks,” (p.38). The pandemic impacts vulnerabilities in international cooperation and response measures.
Expanding Use of Financial Sanctions
US legislature financial sanctions yield the most power as the USA seeks to grapple with the WMD proliferation challenges. These factors had been instrumental in Iran’s desire to enter the negotiating table, and they had also taken a huge toll on the Iranian economy as the US was walking away from signing the JCPOA. Financial restrictions also include, together with other measures in the toolset, allowing to restrict North Korea’s nuclear aspirations. David Cohen, former Under Secretary of the Treasury, highlighted that financial power has steadily become a key pillar for the provenance of national security strategies. Caves & Carus (2021) state, “Financial power has become an essential component of our country’s national-security toolkit. That fact may mean that we are called on to use it more frequently and in more complex ways than we have in previous decades,” (p.39). American capital markets and the dollar’s particular global leadership provide the necessary mechanisms for implementing sanctions, making it hard for adversaries to move through the global financial system.
Since 2001, as the US has grown reliant on financial sanctions, targeting specific individuals or companies, it has gradually moved away from the “one-size-fits-all” type of sanctions (i.e., economic embargo). Secondary sanctions also cover up tracks by including third parties that act on these prohibited economic activities. While sanctions are highly effective at achieving its goals, continuing to depend on a sanction like this may have no effect and reduce the US’s power in the international financial system. Others explore options, particularly China dreaming of being a substitute for the USD, for it is now the main reserve currency.
New Delivery Vehicles
The text describes how WMDs are changing, the termination of the INF Treaty, the emergence of hypersonic systems, automation of vehicles, and precision weapon guidance, e.g., https://smartcustomwriting.com/. The INF Treaty’s demise left the US and Russia in a place to have ground-based missiles at their will again. According to Caves & Carus (2021), critical violations from member states led to US treaty-compliant research on INF-range missiles, whereby “The INF Treaty’s demise ended the international legal constraint upon the United States’ and Russia’s testing and deployment of ground-launched, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles,” (p. 43). There has been new movie technology, such as hypersonic, which is faster and more agile than monetarily and offers new vulnerabilities to our defense missiles. These have caused many problems in stability strategy and the need for international agreements.
The article being reviewed remarks on the changing importance of remote sensing in military operations, specifically MIRVs and drones’ efficiency concerning WMDs. The radar technology beacon displays unique sensor novelty capabilities, including sensing technology across the electromagnetic spectrum, seismic sensors, and acoustic sensors. Such features contribute to surveillance and evaluation. These may make some mobile missile systems detectable and less covered. Besides this fact, it explains the subject of intertwining; under this criterion, substantive problems can arise due to the unclear status of military systems (conventional or nuclear) and how this affects decision-making in reacting to detected threats.
Other Emerging or Disruptive Technologies
The paper focuses on what is the likelihood of four technologies that are at the edge – Artificial Intelligence (AI), Biotechnology, Quantum Systems, and Additive Manufacturing (AM) – to shape the direction of the future weaponry of mass destruction (WMD). Unlike in the case of WMDs, the power of these technologies is not confounding by this or that sphere, and their application both in military and peaceful activities is possible. AI has many potential applications in defense, where it can help to identify targets, assist in guidance and navigation, and enable uncrewed operations and collaborative swarms. One of the advantages that is offered by quantum tools is that of information processing and sensing. On the other hand, additive manufacturing has implications for WMD components, especially for deploying such weapons, as seen in missiles. Primarily, Caves & Carus (2021) acknowledge that “The area relevant to WMD that AM will most impact in the near term is delivery systems, mainly missiles. Ais alreadyis widely used in aerospace-related supply chains. Raytheon has 3D printed a missile, and it has been reported that Orbital ATK has used AM to produce prototype warheads for hypersonic vehicles,” (p.64). Regardless of the milestone benefits, these technologies also pose proliferation risks besides ethical concerns, warranting critical oversight and regulation.
Part 2: Insights to The Research Article
The research article under scrutiny accentuates how these new delivery vehicles may bring forward, like the end of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) or hypersonic missiles, nuclear-powered strike systems, unmanned systems, remote sensing, etc. The article also focuses on mechanisms of strategic stability influence produced by trade trajectories. Therefore, the article briefly furnishes meaningful guides on weapons of mass destruction and pinpoints the existing challenges. As a reader, I strongly admit to several points in the article. First, the speed of technological development in hypersonic missiles, a nuclear-powered strike system, and smart unmanned vehicles make the traditional concept of nuclear deterrence obsolete. The issue of how their emergence will affect the security of the states becoming nuclear weapon-free and the efficacy of international nonproliferation is also crucial to be considered.
The second point I refer to in agreement with the article regarding strategic stability is the cessation of the INF treaty and the rising usage of autonomous weapons systems that will pose a great danger to strategic stability. These new technologies can further raise the possibility of accidental or intentional. The article gives a detailed overview of the dangers and consequences of such online platforms for world security and international conflict resolution. Also, the article needs to consider whether AI can be used to make and use this most dangerous type of weapon. While the article provides insights on AI, hypersonic missiles, and the future of unmanned systems, it underestimates the impact of AI and other aspects of nuclear weapon development, including target identification, strike planning, and decision-making. Since AI already plays a significant role in military operations and the overall process of AI developing and weaponizing nuclear weapons is a topic of concern, the article could also benefit from adding this subject matter.
Conclusion
The research article looks into the policies of the Innovation (INF) Treaty and several recent advances in several areas related to armed forces, including hypersonic missiles, nuclear-powered strike systems, unmanned systems, remote sensing, and other advanced delivery vehicles; all these of which make Russia even more dangerous to global peace. Surely, the article is a source of information and understanding; it is the open and passed door into the present and future weapons of mass destruction. It brings to light one more factor: international collaboration and consistency. We need improved and sophisticated systems to deal with these threats. This article has been effective, appealing, and enlightening. Hence, I recommend it to the person interested in the future of weapons of mass destruction. For better all-embracing results, the article can be expanded to consider how AI can be used in military operations and how AI can dramatically restructure the development and use of nuclear weapons.
Reference
Caves, J. P., & Carus, W. S. (2021). The Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction: An Update. National Intelligence University, National Intelligence Press. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD1147523
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