China’s rise as a global power has recently caught the eye of global politics. This Asian country has expanded exponentially economically and in terms of military power. Also, China’s assertiveness on the global stage has raised serious concerns among many nations, especially the United States of America. As a result, scholars have debated for decades whether China’s rice will result in a security dilemma with the United States of America. This essay examines whether China’s rise will result in a security dilemma/security conflict between the U.S. and China, using the theoretical perspectives of Mearsheimer’s offensive realism, Ikenberry’s liberal perspective and Chinese scholars’ perspective of the China-US conflict. The essay will show that Mearsheimer’s offensive realism seems the most suitable theory for understanding the increasing intense conflict and U.S. fear.
Mearsheimer’s offensive realism is a theory of international relations that emphasizes the importance of states’ relative power in shaping their behaviour. Offensive realism assumes that states are primarily concerned with ensuring survival in an anarchic international system without a central authority to enforce order or prevent conflict. According to Mearsheimer, states seek to maximize their relative power because they cannot be sure of the intentions of other states. This leads to a security dilemma in which other states can perceive a state’s efforts to increase its security as a threat to its security. As a result, states are driven to compete for power, and the international system is characterized by perpetual competition and conflict (Mearsheimer, 2001, p. 31).
Offensive realism also argues that states are rational actors who pursue their interests calculatedly. Therefore, states are likely to engage in aggressive behaviour if they believe it will increase their power and security. Mearsheimer argues that this dynamic leads to a security dilemma and the potential for war as states seek to maximize their relative power and ensure survival. Mearsheimer’s offensive realism suggests that a perpetual struggle for power and security characterizes international politics. This struggle is driven by states’ pursuit of their interests (Mearsheimer, 2001, p. 31).
There are several answers provided by Organski (1958, p. 76) and Mearsheimer (2001, p. 31) regarding whether the rise of China presents a security dilemma to the USA. Mearsheimer’s offensive realism theory suggests that when there is a significant shift in power distribution among states, the result can often be a security dilemma or even a security conflict (Organski, 1958, p. 76). In the case of China’s rise, the United States may perceive this shift in power as a threat to its position in the international system. This is consistent with the Mearsheimerian view of international relations, which emphasizes that states constantly strive for power and that conflict is inevitable in a world where power is the critical currency (Mearsheimer, 2001, p. 31).
Research postulates that one of the main reasons that China’s rise is seen as a potential security dilemma is the uncertainty that it creates. As Ikenberry (2008) notes, China’s rise challenges the established liberal international order, and there is significant uncertainty about what a rising China will do with its newfound power. This uncertainty creates a situation in which the United States must take steps to protect its interests, even if those steps are perceived as threatening by China.
Another factor that contributes to the potential for a security dilemma is the region’s geography. As the U.S. Department of Defense (2019) notes, China’s rise has been accompanied by a more assertive foreign policy, particularly about territorial claims in the South China Sea. This has led the United States to increase its military presence in the region, which has been perceived as a threat by China. The result is a situation in which both countries are taking steps to protect their interests, even if those steps are viewed as provocative by the other side.
Therefore, Mearsheimer’s offensive realism theory suggests that China’s rise will likely result in a security dilemma or even a security conflict with the United States. The uncertainty created by China’s rise, combined with the region’s geography, creates a situation in which both countries are taking steps to protect their interests, even if those steps are perceived as threatening by the other side. To avoid a security dilemma, both countries must find a way to manage the rise of China in a way that is consistent with their interests and the interests of the broader international community.
According to Mearsheimer (2019), this perception of threat is a natural result of the structure of the international system. In a system without a central authority, states must be prepared to defend themselves against potential aggressors, and the best way to do this is to accumulate power. This leads to a situation in which states constantly compete for power, which can create a security dilemma when one state’s efforts to increase its power are perceived as threatening by other states.
In the case of China and the United States, the security dilemma has been exacerbated by several factors. For one, the two countries have very different political systems and ideologies, making it difficult to trust each other (Jia & Liu, 2016, p. 279). Additionally, there are several contentious issues between the two countries, including trade imbalances, intellectual property theft, and territorial disputes in the South China Sea (Jervis, 2017, p. 20). These issues create a situation in which each country is taking steps to protect its interests, even if those steps are perceived as threatening by the other side.
Research further suggests that the U.S. sees China’s rise as a potential threat to its security, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to a U.S. Department of Defense report, “China’s military modernization is changing the military balance in Asia, raising concerns about its long-term intentions” (U.S. Department of Defense, 2019, p. 1). The U.S. has responded to China’s rise by increasing its military presence in the region, strengthening its alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and engaging in economic and diplomatic initiatives to counter China’s influence.
Ikenberry’s liberal perspective can explain the second U.S. perspective of the US-China conflict. The liberal perspective argues that states can cooperate and create institutions that promote cooperation and peaceful relations. According to Ikenberry, the US-led liberal international order has facilitated cooperation and stability among states. Ikenberry argues that China’s rise presents an opportunity for the U.S. and other countries to integrate China into the international system and create new institutions that promote cooperation and peaceful relations (Ikenberry, 2008, p. 6).
The security dilemma arises when a state increases its security and the other states perceive it as a threat to its security (Jervis, 2017, p. 4). Institutionalism argues that such conflicts can be avoided through international institutions and cooperation (Keohane, 1984, p. 162). Empirical evidence suggests that the United States has been promoting such institutions in the Asia-Pacific region, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) (Emmers, 2017, p. 2). The ARF is a platform for dialogue and confidence-building measures, while the EAS is a higher-level forum for regional leaders to discuss strategic issues. These institutions aim to foster cooperation and reduce the chances of conflicts in the region (Kupchan, 2012, p. 77).
On the other hand, the rise of China and whether or not it can lead to a security dilemma can be explained from Chinese scholars’ perspectives. One area of focus has been Chinese schools of thought, such as the “Tianxia” concept and its implications for China’s approach to international relations. Cheng (2019, p. 110) argues that the Tianxia concept, which refers to a hierarchical system of governance in which the emperor rules over all under heaven, has been a fundamental aspect of Chinese political thought for centuries. According to Cheng, the concept emphasizes the importance of peaceful Coexistence and mutual respect among states and has influenced Chinese foreign policy throughout history.
Cheng (2019, p. 111) further notes that the Tianxia concept is rooted in traditional Chinese cosmopolitanism, which emphasizes the interconnectedness of all things and the importance of harmony and balance. According to Cheng, this cosmopolitanism has informed China’s approach to diplomacy, focusing on building relationships and maintaining stability.
In assessing China’s rise’s impact on U.S. national security, understanding the Tianxia concept and Chinese cosmopolitanism can provide insight into China’s foreign policy objectives and approach to international relations. If China continues to emphasize peaceful Coexistence and mutual respect, as Cheng suggests, it may be less likely to pose a direct security threat to the U.S. However, if China’s rise leads to a more assertive foreign policy, as some scholars have suggested, the U.S. may need to be more cautious in its interactions with China.
Therefore, while the impact of China’s rise on U.S. national security is complex and multifaceted, Chinese schools of thought, such as the Tianxia concept and traditional cosmopolitanism, can provide valuable insights into China’s approach to international relations. By understanding these concepts and their implications, policymakers and analysts can better assess the potential security threats posed by China’s rise and develop appropriate strategies for managing them.
There is evidence of how China has been approaching its international relations. For instance, on march 10, Saudi and Iranian delegations were hosted by China, where it was agreed that Saudi and Iran should restore the severed diplomatic relationships. It was said that this gesture was a show of leadership of China on a world stage that was uniting rather than dividing, forming a win-win corporation towards dispute resolution rather than having disputes perpetually.
Another piece of evidence is what happened at the 59th Munich security conference. The Chinese diplomat advocated that a political settlement should be sought to settle the Russia- Ukraine crisis. Wang Yi expressed the concern that China did not want the crisis to continue. However, the Chinese government was concerned that the conflict would escalate or become protracted. Therefore, the conflict should not be allowed to continue anymore.
The Global Security Initiative is good evidence of how China handles international relations. The Global Security Initiative Concept Paper released by China is an important document that outlines China’s perspective on global security and its approach to addressing global security challenges. According to the paper, the concept of global security is evolving, and it requires new thinking, approaches, and strategies to address the challenges that confront the world today. This essay will examine the main ideas and arguments presented in the concept paper and their significance for the global security landscape.
One of the key arguments in the concept paper is that global security is a shared responsibility that requires collaboration among all nations. According to the paper, the world is facing various security challenges, including terrorism, cyber threats, climate change, and regional conflicts, that require collective action to address. The paper argues that only some countries can solve these problems independently and that cooperation among nations is necessary to achieve lasting solutions. This is reflected in the paper’s statement that “global security is not a zero-sum game, but a collective effort to protect the common interests of all nations” (Global Security Initiative Concept Paper, 2021, p. 5). Another important argument in the concept paper is that China is committed to promoting a new global security concept based on mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, and cooperation. The paper notes that China is a responsible global power committed to peace and development. The evidence provided shows that China is advocating for peaceful Coexistence. Rather than taking a neutral position on international conflicts as usual, China is now acting more positively on the world order.
Apart from the theoretical and empirical perspective of the US-China conflict, it should be noted that the competition between the United States and China can be viewed from various domains, such as economic, geostrategic, and international leadership and prestige. According to Chinese scholars, economic cooperation has been a significant factor in the relationship between the two nations (Li, 2019). However, with China’s increasing economic influence, the U.S. has implemented a containment strategy similar to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) to restrict China’s growth (Huang, 2019).
On a geostrategic level, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) have created a conflict of interest in the Asia-Pacific region (Feng, 2018). Furthermore, the U.S.’s ‘Pivot/Rebalancing to Asia’ strategy has increased military presence and activities in China’s neighbourhood, creating a sense of insecurity for China (Huang, 2019).
Apart from economic and geostrategic domains, Chinese scholars suggest that competition over international leadership and prestige is also vital for the evolution of the world order in the coming decades (Li, 2019). This idea is significant in the context of Chinese traditional political thought, where international prestige is similar to ‘rule by virtue’ (Qingdao), which emphasizes international cooperation and balancing with international institutions, as opposed to ‘rule by coercion’ (badao) (Li, 2019). In contrast, the U.S.’s ‘America First’ policy prioritizes its national interests above international cooperation.
While some Chinese scholars argue that the US-China strategic competition may not lead to a new Cold War, the competition is more about different development models based on social media and other technologies to exert political influence over rivals (Feng, 2018). Thus, the competition between the U.S. and China involves various domains.
Several solutions have been suggested to manage and limit conflicts between China and the U.S. First. Both countries must respect each other’s red lines and core interests regarding their strategic competition. For instance, the Taiwan issue is a red line for China. This suggestion aligns with the idea of mutual accommodation proposed by Zhu Feng, who argues that the U.S. and China should draw a red line concerning their strategic competition and respect one another’s core interests (Zhao, 2020, p. 19).
Additionally, China and the U.S. should prevent economic decoupling and work together towards a soft landing to ease their trade frictions. This suggestion is in line with the idea of being careful with economic decoupling, which was proposed by Chinese scholars (Zhao, 2020, p. 21). Furthermore, China and the U.S. should coexist in the Asia-Pacific region and be careful with the relationship between China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). Chinese scholars also proposed positive interactions and Co-existence in the Asia-Pacific region as a solution to managing US-China strategic competition (Zhao, 2020, p. 22). Finally, China and the U.S. should address global governance challenges, such as counterterrorism and public health. Addressing global governance challenges together was also suggested by Chinese scholars as a solution to managing US-China strategic competition (Zhao, 2020, p. 22).
It should be noted that managing and limiting conflicts between China and the U.S. is possible through mutual accommodation, respect for each other’s core interests, prevention of economic decoupling, Coexistence in the Asia-Pacific region, and addressing global governance challenges together. These solutions align with the suggestions proposed by Chinese scholars and can be implemented by both countries to improve their relationship.
In conclusion, whether or not the rise of China can lead to a security conflict between the U.S. and China can be explained theoretically and empirically. Mearsheimer’s offensive realism suggests that China’s rise will likely result in a security dilemma or even a security conflict with the United States. The theory points out that the structure of the international system, which is characterized by anarchy and competition, creates a situation in which states must constantly pursue power to ensure their security. However, within Mearsheimer’s offensive realism, Institutionalism offers a different perspective on the security dilemma than realism. Institutionalism argues that conflicts can be avoided through international institutions and cooperation, while realism emphasizes the role of power and self-help in international politics. Therefore, when empirical and theoretical evidence is analyzed, the conclusion is that while the US-China strategic competition may not lead to a new Cold War, the competition is more about different development models based on social media and other technologies to exert political influence over rivals. The Chinese schools of thought, such as the Tianxia concept and traditional cosmopolitanism, also provide valuable insights into China’s approach to international relations. By understanding these concepts and their implications, policymakers and analysts can better assess the potential security threats posed by China’s rise and develop appropriate strategies for managing them. Therefore, Mearsheimer’s offensive realism seems the most suitable theory for understanding the increasingly intense security competition that China and the U.S. fear. However, the conflict is not inevitable, as China’s schools of thought, like Peaceful Coexistence and Ikenberry’s liberal perspective, provide possible paths for peaceful power transitions.
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