The Definition of the Demographic Transitional Model
The DTM is based on the historical population patterns of 2 demographic parameters – death rate and birth rate – to propose when a country improves economically, its rate of population growth cycles through DMT stages (Grover, 2014). Each stage is defined by a precise relationship between the death rate (recorded death numbers per thousand individuals annually) and the birth rate (registered birth numbers per thousand individuals). When death and birth rates change in relation to one another has a significant impact on an individual country’s population. A country evolves from one stage to the next in the DMT model when specific economic and social elements influence death and birth rates. Although each nation’s demographic characteristics can be analyzed using the DTM, not every DMT’s stages accurately describe a country’s population growth. For example, stages 1 and 5 of the DMT model do not represent any country globally, but mobility is possible in the future.
Demographic Transition Model: This model simplifies the way we look at the population trend changes and how it affects and relates to the global population changes. It is based on natural increases, death rates, and birth rates.
Birth rates: These are the recorded live birth numbers per a thousand individuals in a year. To calculate birth rates annually, one divides the number of live births with a country’s total population then multiplies by a thousand.
Death rates: These are the recorded death numbers per thousand individuals yearly. To calculate death rates annually, one divides the number of death with a country’s total population then multiplies by a thousand.
Natural Decrease/Increase: This is a change in a region’s population due to death and births (except migration). The population grows if the death rate is lower than the birth rate. The population is considered to drop if the birth rate is lesser than the mortality rate.
The Stages of the Demographic Transitional Model
Stage 1: Both death and birth rates are very high, which applied to much of the world before the age of the Industrial Revolution. This results in a population rate that is relatively stable; however, substantial fluctuations might occur due to catastrophes such as pandemics or wars.
Stage 2: Due to the introduction of modern medicine, mortality rates reduce, particularly among youngsters, while the rates of birth remain high, resulting in a rapid population increase. This stage encompasses the world’s poorest countries.
Stage 3: In this stage, there are reduced birth rates due to the following: increased access and availability of contraception, women’s standing rises, and economic conditions improve. The population continues to rise, though at a slow rate. The majority of developing regions are currently in this stage.
Stage 4: The mortality and birth proportions are low in this stage, maintaining the population. These nations have a fertility rate of roughly two children per woman, a higher rate of working females, better healthcare, higher quality of education, and more developed economies. The majority of wealthy countries are currently in this stage.
Stage 5: Countries where fertility levels have reduced far below replacement rates (2 kids) and the old population outnumbers the younger people would be considered Stage 5.
How DTM Affects Human Population (Demography) and Well-Being
The demographic transition model, in its original state, was indeed a detailed analysis of the change mechanisms in fertility and mortality rates, together with concerns of how this will affect the global demographic development in the coming years. The demographic transition has been viewed as a result of a broader economic and social change system from the start. Demographic changes set in motion processes that result in economic and social transformations, either indirectly or directly. Population age demographics, adult health, consumption and health, household education investments, and migration are the affected dynamics factors. Most of these factors occur on a social scale, while others take place on an individual level (Galor, 2012). These actions can have immediate consequences, while others have medium or long-term consequences. These effects are addressed below in terms of how the demographic transition triggered them and how they influenced economic and social transformation.
Adult Health and Human Capital
Although at a slower rate, adult health has improved throughout the demographic shift is often overlooked among the stunning advances in childhood healthcare. This cut was made for a variety of reasons. It was primarily the outcome of improving dietary levels and public health advancements. Throughout the years, epidemic disease’s influence has been gradually reducing.
Parental involvement in “excellent quality” children boosted this increase in adult health. Children who are well-fed and grow up in disease-free conditions tend to become fitter adults (D. Lee & S. Reher, 2011). As a result of the increased number of people living in these situations, the modern-day adult is healthier.
On the other hand, education has been an important aspect in building the current adult capital. The workforce is more educated, better fed and healthier with increased prosperity. Due to the demography transition, people can live long, productive lives and stay healthy into their senior years due to the overall betterment of individuals’ capital quality. These factors have contributed to the strong economic growth that characterized this period.
Reproductive Efficiency
Demographic transition has resulted in a significant rise in the efficiency of reproduction. With fewer childbirths and fewer childhood deaths, individuals’ reproductive objectives were realized. Rising population growth initially obscured the potentially transformational impacts of this transition, as death rates dropped faster than fertility.
Migration
The significant population expansion that accompanied the demographic transition was a powerful motivator for migration. The critical moment for vital rate transitions coincided with a time of migration. Most of it is international migration, but there was also urban-to-rural and interregional movement. Higher population growth rates provided an obvious push factor, which pushed this process forward.
Age Structures
Changes in the age structure of the population occur when fertility declines for an extended period. When the relative number of younger cohorts begins to drop, these changes initially affect the base of the demographic pyramid. For some time, the initial reduction in younger ages is not offset by rises in older generations, and hence the overall size of working-age populations tends to grow. As far as the birth cohorts’ numbers continue to grow, this process will continue. A good example was during the 1950s and 1980s when most of the demographic forerunners shifted when the shrinking of birth cohorts began. This resulted in youthful population patterns that lasted a century. In the future, diminishing birth cohorts can lead to a shrinking reproductive-age and working-age populations in most countries. However, the economy should have the ability to provide enough jobs to meet the expanding population of working age; if not, this opportunity window will have significant economic ramifications for society.
Conclusion
There are always exceptions and outliers in any model, and the DTM is not an exception. There are also certain things the DTM can’t reveal: what impact do demographic variables like migration have, and the model cannot estimate the period a country will be in each of the DTM stages. Nonetheless, the link between death and birth rates is crucial when addressing population patterns influenced by the demographic transition model and their effects on the human population (demography) and well-being.
References
D. Lee, R., & S. Reher, D. (2011). DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ITS CONSEQUENCES.https://www.popcouncil.org/uploads/pdfs/2011_PDRSupp_DemTranConseq.pdf.
Galor O. (2012). The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences. Cliometric, 6(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-011-0062-7.
Grover, D. (2014). What is the Demographic Transition Model? Retrieved 23 March 2022, from https://populationeducation.org/what-demographic-transition-model/.
write